Early look at Week 1 spreads for the NFL

Finally, Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is almost here. We’re about one week away from opening kickoff, but we’re degenerates and can’t contain ourselves from laying bets.

After studying the lines and key trends from across the NFL, I’ve found six games with spreads that are simply too attractive to not jump on. We’ll have you covered throughout the 2021 NFL season with weekly spread picks as we look to profit all year long.

Week 1 NFL betting picks

Below are my six favorite Week 1 NFL spread lines along with a brief breakdown of why I’m leaning each direction. All odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals betting pick

Vikings (-3.5, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This line started at -3 and -110 in favor of the Vikings, so I especially love getting positive value for a simple half-point trade-off.

Minnesota has a simple but effective offensive strategy thanks to a favorable scheme and excellent playmakers. This will prove troublesome for a Bengals defense that somehow got worse this offseason despite spending a ton of money in free agency. There’s no one on the Bengals roster capable of slowing the Vikings’ tandem of Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.

Meanwhile, best believe Mike Zimmer has paid attention to the issues Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have experienced throughout the preseason. Burrow still doesn’t seem confident throwing off his recovering knee, and Chase appears to have the yips.

I expect Zimmer to continue building his 47-27-1 ATS record with a win this week.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts betting pick

Seahawks (-2.5, -120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

There’s no way I’d bet on Carson Wentz in Week 1 based on his struggles over the last few years. He landed in a good spot for him to overcome whatever demons usurped his talent in Philadelphia, but injuries and now COVID-19 have followed him to Indianapolis. Wentz can’t be trusted to lead this Colts offense against a premier opponent.

The Seahawks have thrived with Russell Wilson throughout his career, and I’ve routinely made a killing betting on him. I wish we could’ve landed the Seahawks as underdogs earlier this offseason, but this revamped defense is good enough to keep the Colts at bay en route to a road win.

Also watch for the explosiveness of the Seahawks’ receiver corps to give continued issues to a slower Colts’ secondary.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans betting pick

Jaguars (-3, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are a million skeptics of Urban Meyer, and I understand but don’t fully agree. Meyer has built an experienced staff that has shown some quality wrinkles throughout the preseason. The roster’s overall limitations will be a bigger issue for Jacksonville’s floor than Meyer’s first-year adjustments.

We’ll see this experience play out as the woeful Texans host the Jaguars Week 1. With Deshaun Watson‘s future tied to the inactive list for the foreseeable future, it’s hard to see exactly where the production will come from in Houston. Expect them to sell off most of their pieces as the season progresses.

Jacksonville is one of the safest plays of the Week 1 slate. Trevor Lawrence will have a terrific debut for the Jags.

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots betting pick

Dolphins (+2.5, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

There’s only 20 years’ worth of wins in Bill Belichick’s history to trust him in Week 1. And normally, he’d be an easy choice against a young quarterback. However, the Dolphins’ revamped roster hasn’t put a ton on film, and Brian Flores has accumulated a 20-12 ATS record already in Miami.

The Dolphins boast a uniquely built and dangerous defense. Rookie Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has a lot of new pieces to work with and he’s quite talented, but Miami can confuse him with a plethora of post-snap rotations he never saw at Alabama. Flores would surely rather gameplan against Jones than Cam Newton.

Meanwhile, I’m bullish on Tua Tagovailoa and this Dolphins offense against a Patriots’ defense that must gel quickly. There are a million new faces on the Patriots’ defense and Stephon Gilmore is on the PUP list. Miami will benefit from New England’s early-season scrambling.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears betting pick

Rams (-7, -115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is a lot of points for a Rams team that didn’t give new starting quarterback Matthew Stafford any preseason reps. Chicago is a solid roster, but the Bears’ flaws are not well-suited to face a premier coaching staff. And the Rams have one of the most accomplished early-season coaches in the league in Sean McVay.

McVay is 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2, 4-0 ATS in Week 1 alone. This star-studded roster has a ton of speed that’ll push Chicago’s comfort. The Bears don’t have a lot of playmaking with Andy Dalton at quarterback and former cornerback Kyle Fuller now in Denver.

Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy is likely protecting rookie Justin Fields from 2020’s No. 1 passing defense by keeping him on the bench, but I don’t expect that to last long. Nagy has gone 11-21-1 since 2019 ATS. He must start winning to stay in Chicago and his best weapon is Fields.

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders betting pick

Ravens (-4.5, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I understand why Baltimore isn’t favored by more since they’re going cross-country, but I would take Baltimore by as much as 6.5 points. The Raiders still have a terrible defense and Gus Bradley’s unit is a poor fit against an offense as fast as the Ravens’. Over half of the Raiders’ opponents finished their offensive drives with a score.

I don’t expect that to change this year. Baltimore is banged up on offense, but Lamar Jackson has plenty around him still to produce a monstrous day. And the Ravens have arguably the best defense in the NFL to stifle an intriguing but relatively benign Raiders’ offense.

Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS in Week 1, a good sign the guy knows how to get the most out of his team and gameplan for high-level opponents.