Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
A crucial element to projecting players in fantasy is determining their role and the context of the team on which they operate. In this divisional series, we will explore the inner workings of each team. These writeups are loaded with beautiful data visualizations (brought to you by Anthony Amico) that will expose the gears that push these NFL teams forward. When the Week 1 clock strikes kick-off, your coronation as fantasy kings or queens begins.
Let’s dive into the Miami Dolphins:
Miami Dolphins
Head coach: Brian Flores (2019 – present)
The jury is still out on Brian Flores the head coach after only one year in South Beach. After 15 years in the Patriots organization, before moving to Miami, Flores was a defensive Swiss-army knife serving every role from scout to coach. The pedigree of excellence is present, but only time will tell if that leads to sustained head coaching success. Say what you will about the team raining on their own parade for a possible No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, but Flores had this team motivated down the stretch. After starting winless through seven games, the team rebounded to finish 5-4 over their final nine games.
Offensive coordinator: Chan Gailey (2020 – present; NYJ OC 2015 – 2016; BUF HC 2010 – 2012)
From the graphic above, if there was ever any doubt regarding Chan Gailey’s infatuation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, let’s put that to bed. Gailey is an apparent fan of the beard. Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick, his time starting under Gailey has been mostly forgettable. Partially related to volume but also because Fitzpatrick has not been particularly effective in the touchdown department inside of this scheme. In only two of his five years previously playing for Gailey has Fitzpatrick’s touchdown percentage crossed the 5% mark. In 2015, Fitzpatrick was flanked by Brandon Marshall and Erick Decker, helping him record his only season above 24 passing touchdowns. Can Fitzpatrick or even possibly Tua Tagovailoa play well enough in a vacuum to support the fantasy options in this offense? Yes. Will that probably make either worth rostering for this season? No. Outside of absurd unprojectable efficiency, neither of these quarterbacks will likely garner the passing volume to be anything more than at best a middle-tier second quarterback in Superflex leagues.
Chan Gailey is an overlooked run game enthusiast. In nine of his 14 years as an offensive coordinator, his teams have finished among the top 12 in rushing attempts. Gailey has divided touches among his top two backs into differing amounts yearly considering injuries and skillsets. Looking back, the closest pairing for Gailey that lines up with his current top two backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida is from the 2015 season. In that year, Chris Ivory was the early-down grinder with questionable pass-catching skills who garnered only 37 targets. Bilal Powell managed 117 total touches with 63 targets through the air. Over his final two years as the coordinator of the Jets, Powell achieved 68.5 targets per season. With health permitting, Howard appears to be in line for 220-240 rushing attempts. Ivory and Forte were the RB16 and RB22 in PPR fantasy points per game. Powell was the RB22 and RB26 in PPR fantasy points per game over that span. Considering the context of this offense, both Howard and Breida will be exceptional values. If picking between the two, Breida’s role for this team is possibly being undersold. Gailey has had no qualms featuring more slender runners like Breida in the past (i.e., C.J. Spiller). Health is fair to question for both Howard and Breida, which is why mixing exposures on the two is a sharp play to hedge their health.
At the height of his offensive play calling powers, Gailey’s 2015 Jets passing attack was electric with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. That season Marshall was the WR4 in PPR fantasy points per game with Decker finishing as the WR14. Marshall garnered a 29% target share while Decker was fed a 24% piece of the pie. The Jets subsequently fell apart the next season, but Gailey continued to run his offense through two main cogs in Marshall and Quincy Enunwa, who was the slot component replacement with a 19% target share. Decker was limited to three games that year. During previous iterations of Gailey’s offense, the passing game ran through one alpha receiver in terms of target share. Steve Johnson operated from 2010-2012 as the clear lead with a 23.1-28.9% target share. DeVante Parker proved up to the task as the No. 1 receiver for the Fins after Preston Williams went down with a torn ACL. After Williams was lost for the season, Parker’s target share bumped from 18% to 23%. Parker’s performance down the stretch was stellar, finishing as the WR3 in PPR fantasy points per game.
Preston Williams’ development for Miami this season will be exciting to watch unfold. Williams versus Mike Gesicki for the No. 2 role on the Dolphins offense will be a topic of constant debate in the early weeks. In Weeks 1-9, Williams garnered the highest target share on the team with 21%. During his time with the Jets, Gailey ran the secondary role through the slot with Decker while Enunwa was the complementary piece. Williams’ accomplished many things during his abbreviated rookie season, but playing the slot was not one of them, as he only saw 5% of his snaps inside. Gesicki however, should be viewed as a slot receiver more than a traditional tight end. Gesicki ran from the slot on approximately 70% of his snaps, which is an inordinate amount even for a receiving tight end. To give better context here, the Travis Kelces of the world usually sit in the 50% range for slot usage. Gesicki’s target share bumped from 12% to 18% after Williams’ injury. For every mention of Gailey’s tight end usage, there needs to be further clarity as well. During his time with the Jets, Austin Seferian-Jenkins (seven games), Jeff Cumberland and Kellen Davis are all depth chart fodder. Scott Chandler was productive in 2012, receiving a 14.4% target share. Chandler’s 44.8-50% slot usage from 2011-2012 is still not a great comparison in projecting Gesicki’s possible role in this offense. Gesicki was the TE10 in fantasy points per game last year. Gesicki is best viewed as a low-end top 12 tight end with the upside for much more if he locks down the role as the second option for Miami.
Pace/Pass Rate/Personnel
The general premise is that Chan Gailey is a sharp offensive mind, but on paper, his offense is relatively vanilla. Gailey’s pace has been the equivalent of a sloth climbing a tree. It’s eventually a productive venture for the party involved, but the trip is slow and painful to watch at times. Gailey’s offenses have been slower than league average regardless of script. Gailey’s personnel usage has been equal to the NFL average in all personnel packages.
Part of buying into the pass game weapons for the Dolphins is also, by proxy, buying into the belief that the defense will again struggle. Gailey’s pass rate has dropped off a cliff when his teams have led while only finding barely middle ground in close games. His offenses have still finished with some years of below league average pass rates when trailing, but the divide between game scripts for his passing is vast. The big takeaway here is the Dolphins finished 7th in pass attempts last year. That number is sure to come down, but the defense will play a factor in how much.
Offensive Scheme
Gailey was first in target share allotted to his wide receivers in the NFL over his last two seasons as a coordinator. As discussed previously, with the usage and alignment of Gesicki and Williams, one of these two players is going to emerge as the clear No. 2 option considering how narrow the usage tree is here. The primary question is who. With the edge in slot snaps in 2019, my lean is Gesicki at the moment. Running backs have also been active participants in this scheme through the air. From 2015-2016, the Jets backs ranked 13th and fifth in target share, seeing between 20.8-22.7% of the passes. With Howard proving that he’s a dud in the pass-catching department, this is a big green checkmark next to Breida’s name for 2020.
Gailey has been persistently anti-play-action, as the pass game falls below the league mean by 3.7% over his last four years as a coordinator. Gailey has not been afraid of chucking the ball down the field, though, with his offense finishing on average over his previous two seasons 0.7 yards in aDOT above the NFL average. If the Dolphins passing department is to compensate with lower volume, it will be on the back of deep passing.
Gailey has relied on one big back in the rushing department, especially near paydirt. During his final two years in New York, Gailey fed Ivory and Forte 62.2% and 51.6% of the red zone rushing attempts. Inside the five-yard line, Gailey leaned even more heavily on the big fellas, as Ivory accounted for 85% of the rushing attempts while Forte came in at 66.7%. When C.J. Spiller was the main cog in 2012, Gailey still gave Fred Jackson six rushing totes inside the five compared to only one for Spiller. Howard won’t be the sexy option but look for him to gobble up the looks on the ground when Miami is in close.
Defensive coordinator: Josh Boyer (2020 – present; Defensive Pass Game Coordinator in 2019)
Josh Boyer might be newly minted as a coordinator, but he’s been tied to Flores’ hip since their days in New England. Until 2019, Boyer had been on the Patriots’ staff since 2006. Much of the Miami draft and their moves in free agency have been to upgrade this defense. In many ways, this will be an improved unit taking the field in South Florida. After falling well below the league mean in pressure rate, the Dolphins brought in Shaw Lawson and Kyle Van Noy and their 13 combined 2019 sacks to assist. Despite ranking 27th in rush defense DVOA, the Dolphins allowed the 11th lowest explosive run rate in 2019.
The improvements the Fins have made in the pass defense department should be palpable this season. If their faith in a Xavien Howard bounceback to 2019 levels comes to fruition, this secondary could be nasty. Howard allowed only a 47.8% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating in 2018 before dealing with injuries during the 2019 season. Adding Byron Jones to this defense is a serious boost for their pass coverage. Since 2018 Jones has taken away the left side of the field against opposing offenses allowing only a 51.9% catch rate (127 targets). Add in their first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene versus slot receivers and Flores has made compelling strides toward building a Foxboro-like foundation in a snowbird state.
