Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
During the NFL season, we’re going to use the Directional Passing Tool to break down how different offenses are utilizing their weapons all over the field. As the year goes on, patterns begin to emerge that will allow us to anticipate and exploit mismatches between a defense and an offense that we’re targeting.
Short Passing
Cooper Kupp continues to extend his lead on the rest of the field in the short left section of the field. Kupp has seen the same number of targets in this zone as Diontae Johnson (and fewer air yards) but has 284 more receiving yards. Hunter Renfrow is also doing plenty of damage here, turning 193 air yards into 367 receiving yards.
Dallas Goedert has taken the lead in the short-right portion of the field and is joined by fellow tight end Dalton Schultz as the only non-wide receivers here. Diontae Johnson shows up on this list, as well, showcasing Ben Roethlisberger’s second-worst average depth of target in the league. The Steelers quarterback has averaged throws of just 6.77 yards downfield.
This list features three tight ends in Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle. We see two 49ers on this leaderboard with Deebo Samuel leading the league in receiving yards here. Jimmy Garoppolo has the ninth-lowest aDOT among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks and he’s been the starter for the majority of the year. Trey Lance is throwing the ball about 2.5 more yards downfield, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how the offense changes if they make the playoffs and Lance continues to be the starter.
Deep Passing
Cooper Kupp doesn’t have the monstrous lead here that he does in other categories, but Kupp and Tyler Lockett are lapping the rest of the field here. Mike Williams and Emmanuel Sanders round out the top four but most of those yards came earlier in the season as both of them have hit some speed bumps through the second half of the year.
Van Jefferson leads the league here with over 300 yards on passes in the deep middle zone of the field.
Ja’Marr Chase is cruising to the lead here. Gaining nearly 400 yards overall in the past two weeks has certainly helped the rookie increase his lead here. We see two Eagles inside the top five here, showing Jalen Hurts’ abilities as a deep thrower.
