Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We all love fantasy football, and we all love trying to project what will happen. We think we know, but we really don’t. Fantasy players study the offseason reports, analyze past statistics hoping to identify useless trends, but oftentimes we are just plain wrong. What if 2024 is the most chaotic fantasy season we’ve ever seen? What if everything we thought would happen, simply didn’t? Let’s take a look at the dominant fantasy storylines heading into August and play contrarian.
Here are the top storylines that seem to be generally accepted as we enter the 2024 season. What would it mean if they didn’t come true?
I present to you the 2024 fantasy football version of: Devil’s Advocate.
Find the Top-3 QB Fraud
I say this every year: One of the top three quarterbacks by ADP will greatly disappoint. Last year, it was Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who was drafted as QB2 but finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Investing that amount of draft capital in a one-starter position, and having them fail to meet ADP is a huge obstacle for your fantasy team.
The top three quarterbacks per Underdog ADP are Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes (again). Since Mahomes disappointed last season, it’s hard to envision him falling short in two consecutive years. Let’s analyze the betting projections for the other two choices.
Hurts’ passing yardage total sits at 3,600.5, but heavily juiced to the under (-130). He has comfortably eclipsed this number each of the past two seasons, hitting a career-best 3,858 passing yards last season. His rushing yardage prop is at 550.5, which is extremely low given his history. Hurts has rushed for 760 or more yards in two of the past three seasons, but his rushing yardage has decreased three straight years. In 17 games last year, Hurts only 605 rushing yards at 3.9 YPA.
Allen’s rushing yardage total is set at 480.5 but juiced to the over (-125). Allen has been the overall fantasy QB1 in three of the past four seasons, with rushing totals ranging from 421 yards to 763 yards. Allen can produce an elite fantasy season without relying on his rushing ability. I do find Allen’s passing yardage prop of 3750.5 very low, given that he has eclipsed 4,200 yards in four straight seasons, but the loss of Stefon Diggs puts more pressure on rookie Keon Coleman.
Devil’s Advocate Advice: There are concerns about the production of both Hurts and Allen, when compared to their recent fantasy finishes. In order to justify their lofty ADPs, both players need to be substantially better than the rest of the quarterbacks. In Weeks 11-17 last season, here are the fantasy points per game for some high-profile quarterbacks:
- Lamar Jackson: 25.0
- Josh Allen: 25.0
- Jalen Hurts: 22.4
- Joe Flacco: 21.8
- Jordan Love: 21.6
- Trevor Lawrence: 21.5
- Dak Prescott: 20.2
- Brock Purdy: 20.0
- Patrick Mahomes: 16.4
If you select a quarterback early, they need to justify the cost by outperforming the competition. I recommend waiting on fantasy’s most important position, and prioritize running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Stop Drafting Early-Round RBBC
Two of the most popular early-round running back selections are Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Miami’s De’Von Achane. The argument for both players is the incredible “upside” they bring to the 2024 season. Both are extremely explosive players who are projected for years of sustained NFL success. There’s just one problem.
Neither is the lead running back on his respective team.
Per FTN’s StatsHub, both David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert ranked among the top 10 running backs in almost every relevant rushing statistic.
Montgomery ranked ninth in rushing yards, ninth in yards per carry, third in touchdowns, 10th in yards after contact, seventh in success rate and fifth in win yards per attempts. Those are elite numbers for a 27-year-old running back who also ranked fourth in goal-line carries.
All Raheem Mostert did was lead the NFL in rushing (18) and total touchdowns (21), while ranking second overall in total running back fantasy points. Mostert was seventh in yards per carry (4.8) and tied for second with 12 goal-line carries.
Devil’s Advocate Advice: This is a classic example of Occam’s Razor. The most logical conclusion is the simplest one: both players are being overdrafted. If Montgomery gets hurt, Gibbs is certainly a high-end RB1, but that is based on an injury. While I am excited about Achane’s increased passing-game usage, he needs an injury to Mostert to pay off his ADP at the R1/2 turn. And if Mostert gets hurt, fourth-round rookie running back Jaylen Wright will certainly play a role. Can Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane all justify their top-two-round ADPs this season?
Wait On Tight End
Fantasy drafters were spoiled by the outlier tight end seasons by Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski. They distanced themselves so far from the rest of tight ends, that the positional advantage they provided justified spending an early-round pick.
That simply isn’t the case any longer.
Last year the top four fantasy football tight ends were separated by 0.2 points per game in 0.5 PPR formats. The top seven tight ends were separated by just 1.5 points per game. In the 2020 season, Travis Kelce outpaced the No. 2 overall tight end by 3.3 fantasy points per game. In 2021, the top four tight ends were separated by three full fantasy points per game. The gap is shrinking rapidly.
Selecting a tight end early also comes with the missed opportunity cost of selecting a running back or wide receiver. If you spend early draft capital on a tight end, they need to provide the elite separation between the field.
There are plenty of late-round tight end options that have the chance for top-12 fantasy seasons. Using FTN’s StatsHub, we can sort tight ends by route participation and see there are several later round selections that have a huge opportunity for a solid fantasy season.
Per our Underdog Fantasy ADP Tool, Cade Otton is being drafted as the TE22 despite posting a 96.4% route participation number last season. David Njoku is a borderline TE1 yet participated in a higher percentage of routes than T.J. Hockenson or Travis Kelce. For the Jets, Tyler Conklin ranked 14th in route participation and has posted three straight seasons of 87 targets with vastly inferior quarterback play.
Devil’s Advocate Advice: It may “feel” good to draft Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, but waiting on tight end is better for the balance of your fantasy team. If you select a tight end early in your drafts, they need to produce an elite season, vastly superior to their positional competition. If not? Give the devil his due.
