Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Finally. The Deshaun Watson trade saga is over. Watson shocked nearly everyone Friday afternoon, waiving his no-trade clause for the Cleveland Browns after it had been widely reported that the Browns were out of the mix. Watson and the Browns agreed to a massive five-year pact worth a reported $230 million. The entire contract is fully guaranteed, which is a gargantuan sum of money that comes in $80 over the previous NFL record for guaranteed money.
(Follow along with all of the big free agency reactions here!)
Of Watson’s four suitors – the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers were also in the mix – Cleveland represents the best possible landing spot for the quarterback. The Browns made a big move to get Amari Cooper just six days ago along after placing the franchise tag on David Njoku. Of course, Cleveland also boasts a top-flight between-the-tackles runner in Nick Chubb and one of the league’s top offensive lines. While the other three have interesting pieces, none of them can stack up to the component parts the Browns have in place.
The only major concern for Watson’s immediate fantasy value is whether the NFL will decide to suspend him in 2022. While Watson was not indicted on criminal charges, the league could still issue a suspension as they did with Ben Roethlisberger in 2010. Any immediate fantasy football impact would ultimately come down to the length of the suspension. Four games or fewer, and we really won’t factor in an impact. Six games or more will move him down the board.
But when he is ultimately on the field, there’s little doubt that he will pick up right where he left off in 2020. Watson led the league in passing yards that season with 4,823. He was also the lone signal caller to reach double-digits games of 300-plus passing yards. All told, he finished as fantasy’s No. 4 signal caller. That marked his third straight season as a top-five option, and he was well on his way to an elite finish in his rookie season back in 2017 before it was cut short by an untimely ACL injury.
Watson is a modern fantasy quarterback who is equally adept as a passer and a runner. That dual-threat ability helps him consistently fill up the stats sheet and rack up fantasy points. While he isn’t going to put up Lamar Jackson-esque numbers as a runner, Watson topped 400 rushing yards in each of his last three seasons with 15 touchdowns over that span. At just 27 years old this season, don’t expect his production to decline at all. Given the landing spot, it’s completely fair to rank Watson right at the back end of the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks at QB5. The only quarterbacks who currently rank ahead of him are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray.
There’s also a rising tide effect for Cooper and Njoku. Cooper will have his detractors, but he currently has very little competition for targets on the Cleveland depth chart. With Watson in place, Cooper deserves front-end WR2 consideration as a top-15 fantasy wideout. We can’t quite go that far with Njoku, but it should be noted that Watson did always show an affinity for his tight ends in Houston. With Austin Hooper out of the mix – he just signed with the Tennessee Titans – Njoku is the clear top tight end target in Cleveland. Given his opportunity and touchdown upside, Njoku has just become everyone’s favorite “sleeper” tight end to target in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. As for Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Watson’s presence doesn’t necessarily move either up the board. But Chubb is now solidified as a rock-solid RB1 with Hunt offering pass catching upside as a fringe RB2.
Of course, there’s still more to the story here. Over the past 48 hours, it became abundantly clear that Baker Mayfield and the Browns were heading toward a divorce. Mayfield is officially on the block and could draw interest from the likes of Seattle and Indianapolis. Perhaps even the Panthers or Saints could have interest. Mayfield will likely remain a starter in the short-term and will have a chance to revive his career in a new location. We’ll have more on his outlook when this inevitable move happens.
