Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
In most cases, expansion is a good thing, but for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFL playoff expansion is not helping them. Instead of having a bye week, they will now be a part of Wild Card Weekend and host the Philadelphia Eagles.
These two teams have already met once this season. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers went into Lincoln Financial Field and came away with a 28-22 victory. Though much has changed since then, Tampa Bay has opened as an 8.5-point favorite, with the total being set at 49.5.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wild Card Odds
Date/ Time: January 16, 1:00 p.m. ET
Arena: Raymond James Stadium
How to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds: Buccaneers -8.5| O/U 49.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Latest Eagles- Buccaneers Odds
Be sure to check the latest odds for this matchup here.
Opening Odds – Eagles vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers officially opened as 8.5-point favorites, and early money has begun to hit this spread. With 57 percent of the bets coming in on the Buccaneers, some books have moved Tampa Bay to 9-point favorites.
There were 50 points scored between these two teams in the first meeting earlier this season, and that seems to be the benchmark for this one. Oddsmakers opened the total at 49.5, and the public and the sharps seem to have different opinions. The consensus total has ticked down to 49 despite 63 percent of the bets being on the over. That is an indication of reverse line movement.
Latest Buccaneers News & Betting Analysis
Despite not having much to play for, the defending Super Bowl champions opted not to rest their starters in Week 18. Speaking of their starters, Tampa Bay will enter this matchup with crucial question marks among their starters. Starting running back Ronald Jones, starting linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, and starting defensive backs, Richard Sherman and Rashard Robinson, are all questionable to play this weekend.
It is no secret what the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers plan to do on offense. They threw the ball over 66 percent of the time this season, and if they are without Ronald Jones, we may see that number increase in this game. It certainly is not a bad strategy against this Eagles defense, as they were dead last in completion percentage allowed. Tom Brady will also not be under any type of pressure, as Philly was 31st in sack rate.
Latest Eagles News & Betting Analysis
Unlike the Buccaneers, the Eagles opted to rest most of their starters in preparation for this week, but for multiple key players, the rest was welcomed. Notable starters who are on the injury report for the Eagles include Miles Sanders (hand, probable), Jalen Hurts (ankle, questionable) and Lane Johnson (knee, questionable).
Clearly, having those three players hampered for this matchup is unsettling for Eagles fans. Though I imagine they each find a way to play in this game, the Eagles’ offense could be stifled regardless of their status. About a quarter of the way through the season, the Eagles decided to commit to the run game, which worked wonders for this team. They ultimately finished the season as the best rushing offense in the league. The Philadelphia offense was first in rushing yards per game, first in rushing touchdowns per game and fourth in yards per rush.
The Eagles’ rushing attack will face a Tampa Bay defense that ranked third in rushing yards allowed per game and fifth in rushing touchdowns allowed per game.
Philadelphia’s game plan will hinge on the arm of Jalen Hurts, as the Buccaneers’ secondary has been riddled with injuries and was 21st in passing yards allowed. Unfortunately, the outlook for Hurts leading them through the air is bleak. He ranked 25th out of 32 eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Betting Picks- Wild Card Round
The public has started to drive this number up, and I have to agree with them, given how these two teams match up. Brady should be able to carve up this Eagles defense and put up points at a pace the Eagles can’t keep up with. I’d grab this number now at 8.5 and would play it to 9.5. It has also been a very profitable strategy to back Tom Brady at home during his time in Tampa, as he is 12-5 against the spread.
FTNBets Best Bets
- Buccaneers: -8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- O/U: No bet
How to Bet On This Game
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