Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
When you make a pick in your fantasy football draft, what you want to hear is your leaguemates being angry, frustrated that you took the player they wanted. Also acceptable is the “ooooh” of being impressed, when they think you made a savvy call they didn’t think of.
But no reaction is also a reaction.
Some picks you make in your fantasy draft, especially in the middle rounds, are just the ho-hum picks that everyone makes to fill out a roster. You don’t want to mess them up, and some of them will be home runs, but generally speaking these picks get made and no one thinks twice about them. They’re the boring picks.
But not every boring pick has to be a boring option all year. Some of those boring picks will be the players who will help you win your league despite no one caring at the time of the pick. Today, we’re looking at those boring-but-worth-it picks that you can make in your fantasy drafts this year to win your middle rounds.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
One thing Derek Carr has done throughout his career is put up solid QB2 numbers every year. This season, there is more hype around him with the addition of Davante Adams, but his ADP hasn’t risen — he’s still going as a mid-range QB2 in drafts. In superflex leagues, having a safe QB2 to plug into that superflex spot makes all the difference. At a minimum, that’s Carr — he’s had four straight seasons over 4,000 passing yards, three straight of 20-plus touchdowns. He is very limited in the rushing game (only 743 career rushing yards, 6 touchdowns in eight season), which is what has kept him from top-10 QB status. Carr has been around eight seasons and never finished better than 11th (2016) or worse than 20th (his 2014 rookie year). Adams’ arrival does give Carr more upside than he’s ever had, but the beauty of his pick is the extremely high floor, a higher floor than you’ll get from any other quarterback in his range.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
As one of the most overdrafted players in rookie drafts two years ago, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been pretty solidly a fantasy bust so far in his career. But between an interrupted COVID-19 offseason, multiple injuries and an offseason surgery last year, Edwards-Helaire has definitely had more than his share of bad luck. Over two seasons, he has created 824 yards after contact, forcing 50 missed tackles and amassing 11 rushes of more than 15 yards. Even with the addition of Ronald Jones this offseason, offsetting the departures of Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon, Edwards-Helaire should still see enough touches on the ground and the passing game to be fantasy viable. The departure of Tyreek Hill only adds to that, leaving more room for Edwards-Helaire to produce in the passing game. Most of what we liked about Edwards-Helaire his first two seasons — the main back in what should be an excellent offense with a superstar quarterback and aa smart coach — is still in place, and now he’s available at a much cheaper price than he used to command.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Miami Dolphins
Chase Edmonds has yet to produce like a surefire fantasy asset in his four-year career. That’s at least partially due to his lack of touchdowns, as he’s never topped 5 in a season (he has 14 in four years), and partially due to lack of work on the ground as he’s run alongside David Johnson, Kenyan Drake, James Conner and even Kyler Murray. However, his carry total has increased, from 60 in 2018 and 2019 to 97 in 2020 to 116 last year, with career highs in attempts, yards and yards per attempt last year. Now in Miami and in a crowded backfield, Edmonds is likely to be used as a passing-down back yet again. He has 921 career receiving yards, including 402 and 311 the last two years. Being in a backfield with Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin probably limits Edmonds’ overall upside, but he’s clearly the best receiver of the bunch. The biggest selling point is the likely improvement of this entire offense, with Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Mostert and Edmonds offering big-time speed. The pass-catching part of a backfield committee can be a big asset in PPR leagues, particularly with the offering of a high floor.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos
Running back tends to have a lot of annual turnover, but Melvin Gordon has been one of the staples the last few years. Gordon had three straight seasons as a top-eight PPR back in 2016-2018, and he has been an RB2 or better for six straight years now. At age 28 last year he tallied 918 yards and 8 scores, adding 28 receptions for 213 yards another 2 touchdowns, even as a member of a committee. Javonte Williams has the hype and the presumed No. 1 role in the Denver backfield for 2022, but Gordon won’t disappear, and if anything happens to Williams, the veteran Gordon would offer RB1 value for RB3 (or worse) price.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
In his third year, Jakobi Meyers stepped into his own in 2021, drawing 126 targets and turning them into 866 yards. Meyers is an excellent fit for a Patriots (and Mac Jones) offense that works to get the ball out quickly. Meyers has dominated work out of the slot in his career, running 63.0% of his snaps from there. That leads to a lot of balls in traffic, but he’s done fine with that, with only 3 drops and a 67.9% contested catch rate. In short, he is Jones’ safety valve, which means plenty of easy PPR points. What has held Meyers back so far is the end zone — he has only 2 touchdowns in his three NFL seasons. If you assume even moderately improved touchdown luck, he has a nice upside, and even without that, Meyers has a very solid floor — he topped 10 PPR points nine times in 2021.
Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Gage taking his talents to Florida from Georgia only makes him a safer fantasy option. Whenever Chris Godwin is healthy, Gage will be the clear third receiver on a team that threw the ball 731 times last year, with 241 of those going to the top two options. That leaves plenty of targets for Gage, who saw over 90 targets in Atlanta each of the last two seasons. He turned those targets into a combined 1,556 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing as a top-40 wide receiver each year. Now as part of a better offense, his ability to win at the release point and through his routes should have no trouble being showcased. As for that better offense — a Tom Brady-led offense should be able to get near and in the end zone much more often than Gage’s Falcons did. Add in the possibility of Godwin missing the start of the season (and who knows how much more) as he recovers from a torn ACL, and Gage has a top-36 outlook with a definite line on a WR2 season.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks has been the model of consistency when it comes to being boring but productive — a name that gets overlooked every year, always slipping in drafts and returning great value. Since his 2014 rookie season, Cooks had six top-20 fantasy seasons in seven years, never finishing higher than 10th in that time. He has had six seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards and 49 career touchdowns. Cooks converted an impressive 45 first downs last year despite the Texans as a whole having only 265, comfortably the lowest total in the league. The Texans are likely to continue to struggle in 2022, keeping Cooks’ ceiling lower than some of the elite options, but he’s still a more-than-solid WR2 option.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk entered the league in 2022 as a raw but extremely talented receiver. He’s had his ups and downs through two years, but he’s ended both of his seasons as the PPR WR35 exactly. As a rookie, Aiyuk came on strong late in the season when George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were both hurt. That led to plenty of buzz for 2021, but that died down in a hurry when Aiyuk started the season in the doghouse and Samuel exploded as the offense’s focal point. Aiyuk worked his way back to a fantasy-relevant position over the course of the season, finishing 2021 with 56 receptions for 826 yards and 5 scores. He also improved after the catch, with his yards after the catch going from 4.8 per reception as a rookie to 6.2. With questions surrounding Samuel’s future with the team in addition to the increased role out of the backfield Samuel saw in 2021, Aiyuk has the floor of a solid weekly flex option in 2021 with a very high ceiling.
