Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Petey Sunshine Crew.
Fantasy Football Booms – Seahawks
DK Metcalf, WR
Last year we got a glimpse of what a full season of Mr. Unlimited being unleashed would look like, and it was glorious. If we get a 17-game stretch of this in 2021, DK Metcalf will crush all who oppose him in fantasy football. In Weeks 1-9, Metcalf was the WR2 in fantasy points per game as Russell Wilson was ripping apart secondaries. In Weeks 10-17, when Pete Carroll shut down the kitchen, Metcalf tumbled to WR39 in fantasy points per game. If new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron declares that the restaurant is reopened for business, Metcalf can’t be stopped. — Derek Brown
Russell Wilson, QB
Due a downtrodden second half, many fantasy drafters are hilariously bailing on Wilson. A reminder, he’s “Mr. Unlimited,” a man who posts occasionally corny videos and unbecoming photos of him in “fashionable” attire. He’s also a man who consistently chucks 30-plus TDs every single year, raising the floor with steady 325-plus yard outputs. Remember, he’s surpassed each threshold in five of the last six seasons.
In the end, Wilson’s eye-popping air yards output (QB6 in ‘20), accuracy off play-action and top-flight wideouts in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett point to another 4,200 pass yards, 350-400 rush yards and 35-40 total TDs. Weirdly slotted at QB7 (73.0 ADP overall), he’s a likely top-five finisher when the final tick falls off the scoreboard in Week 18. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Seahawks
Tyler Lockett, WR
Plop your derriere in the front car, strap in, get jostled and barf your brains out. The Tyler Lockett roller coaster causes nothing but nausea and disorientation — at least it did last fall. Except against the Arizona Cardinals, a team against which he posted historic results, the wideout was largely unreliable. A whopping 28.1% of his total PPR production came in a pair of contests against the Desert Birds.
Yes, he lured 132 targets, 16 inside the red zone, and is locked into a sizable workload in a proven Seattle offense, but Metcalf is the clear alpha. His unsavory outside-the-top-50 finishes in yards per route run, yards per target and yards per catch also raise questions. In the end, his maddening inconsistency explains why he’s more of a top-end WR3. For my buck, Tee Higgins, Cooper Kupp and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more attractive options available in a similar tier. — Brad Evans
Chris Carson, RB
Chris Carson‘s 2020 season comprised two divergent five-game samples. In Weeks 1-5, he played between 45 and 63% of the snaps, averaging 16.4 touches per game and 85.8 total yards. He was the RB6 in fantasy points per game in that sample, thanks to touchdown variance and three receiving scores. The latter part of the year wasn’t as kind. In Weeks 13-17, he had similar playing time (46-70% snaps), averaging 16.0 touches and 87.8 total yards per game. Over those final five games, he was the RB25 because his total touchdowns slide to three.
Carson is a back with declining explosive play metrics, ranking 43rd in yards created per touch and 38th in breakaway run rate last year that will be behind an offensive line that won’t do him any favors. Last year, Seattle ranked 23rd in open field yards. If Carson doesn’t find luck in the touchdown department again in 2021, he could massively disappoint fantasy gamers. — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Seahawks
Gerald Everett, TE
Gerald Everett has long been a tackle-breaking efficiency monster only in need of volume to let his true potential shine through. Seattle wasted no time reuniting him with his former coach in hopes of unlocking his massive upside. In 2020 among all tight ends with 25 targets, Everett ranked 20th in yards per route run (1.46) and eighth in yards after the catch per reception (5.9). On 59 targets, Everett tied Darren Waller for the fifth most missed tackles (9) among all tight ends.
In 2018-2019, Seattle ranked 11th and ninth in target share (22.1-22.6%) to the tight end position. With a top-shelf talent like Everett in Seattle, the targets will flow back to position. Everett has top-10 tight end upside that’s attainable in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts. — Derek Brown
Gerald Everett, TE
Reteaming with fresh faced Seattle OC Shane Waldron, who was Everett’s positional coach in 2017, has the tight end’s confidence sky high. So does the upgrade from Jared Goff (“Jared Gawful”) to Wilson. Seahawks TEs, a hodgepodge of contributors, have caught at least 75 receptions and six touchdowns in consecutive seasons.
Everett, a perpetual second fiddle, has never tallied greater than a 15.0% target share. That could change in his new digs, especially with his club stressing more 11 personnel. Plus, his 86th percentile SPARQ and ability to separate should mesh well with Wilson who often slings the rock unafraid downfield. Will Dissly is a small hurdle, but 550 yards with a handful of TDs are attainable. At TE19 (164.2 ADP overall), he’s an ideal candidate for the thrift minded. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Seahawks 2021
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Gerald Everett OVER 505.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
Over Everett’s last 29 games played weekly splitting routes with Tyler Higbee, he’s averaged 28.4 receiving yards per game. Across 17 games, that would leave him at 483.6 receiving yards. Reunited with Waldron, Everett is in for a role boost that will carry him across this finish line. — Derek Brown
Russell Wilson OVER 33.5 passing TDs (-110, DraftKings)
Waldron’s offense defines freedom of movement. An increased reliance on versatility and matchup maximization should vault Wilson past the 34-TD line for the fourth time in five seasons. — Brad Evans
