Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Juggernaut Jaguars.
Fantasy Football Booms – Jaguars
D.J. Chark, WR
There’s replacement-level quarterback play, and there’s what Chark suffered through last year. No NFL wide receiver should be subjected to catching passes (or watching them sail over your head) from the likes of Mike Glennon and Jake Luton. Gardner Minshew was also playing with only one functional hand for much of last season.
I know for many, Chark’s 2019 excellence is a distant memory, but it’s time to wipe the dust off those hazy recollections. In 2019 before dealing with injuries, Chark was the WR8 in fantasy points per game (16.5). He ranked 37th in yards per route run (1.69) among all wideouts with 50 or more targets tied with D.K. Metcalf. With wonderboy Trevor Lawrence in town, Chark can rekindle those fantasy flames. — Derek Brown
D.J. Chark, WR
Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton and Mike Glennon — Chark backers were gluttons for punishment in 2020. Don’t blame the receiver, blame the situation. Due to the three-headed ferret at QB, Chark’s woeful production shouldn’t have shocked a soul. In 0.5 PPR formats, he finished WR48 in total fantasy points, sandwiched in-between statistical sour pusses Sterling Shepard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Point the finger at his WR91 standing in catchable target percentage.
Chark’s surface numbers may have underwhelmed, but his underlying profile paints a rosy rebound perspective. He finished WR9 in unrealized air yards, WR14 in air yards share (34.4%) and WR24 in contested catch rate. Trevor Lawrence’s all-fields arm strength and accuracy should pay instant dividends for the third-year target. Available at a very affordable WR29 (69.69 — Doubly NICE!) ADP, his return-on-investment upside is substantial. A top-20 finish at the position is easily attainable, especially when considering Jacksonville’s projected soft defense. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Jaguars
James Robinson, RB
The Jaguars spending first-round draft capital on Travis Etienne is equivalent to cops busting up your year-end kegger right when the gummy just started to kick in. Rekindling an established connection to Lawrence aside, it was a curious move. Robinson, who signed as a UDFA a year ago, is cheap and coming off a massive rookie campaign, a season in which he compiled 1,414 total yards and 10 combined touchdowns over 14 games. He also chipped in an impressive 3.18 YAC per attempt, No. 13 among qualifying RBs. Sadly, though, with the rookie hotshot and Carlos Hyde in tow, his 85.2% opportunity share is bound to decline dramatically.
How much work Robinson will receive is anyone’s guess. It’s entirely possible he salvages some value lost by securing red-zone work, but 11-13 touches per game is a likely best-case scenario. Given the unknowns, his RB21 ADP (38.15 overall) is greatly inflated. David Montgomery, Chris Carson and Josh Jacobs, available at a similar price point, are sounder alternatives. If, however, he slips in the more appropriate RD7-RD8 range there is some room to profit. — Brad Evans
Travis Etienne, RB
Etienne’s rich ADP (RB22, 46.4 overall) is baking in that he is the undisputed lead back from Day 1 for Urban Meyer. While his early-down role on the team can be debated at length, there are other concerns for Etienne paying off this draft position.
Etienne’s efficiency should be called into question behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranked 15th in second-level yards and 19th in open field yards last year. He showed during his final season at Clemson that he’s not offensive line agnostic. From 2019 to 2020, the Tigers’ line dropped from first to 51st in line yards, and his yards after contact per attempt dipped from first (5.07) to 31st (3.84) among all backs with 75 or more carries each season.
Etienne’s touchdown equity is also up in the air outside of Robinson worries. In two of his past four seasons as an offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has ranked third (62%, 2017) and eighth (58%, 2019) in red-zone passing rate. Marvin Jones and D.J. Chark will eat into his six-point moonwalk possibilities. — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Lawrence has airdropped into a quarterback-friendly ecosystem in Jacksonville. While I shared worries for the offensive line above for Etienne, the problems for Lawrence with this group have been overstated. Jacksonville ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate last season, it’s true, but Minshew losing his mustache magic played a role. Minshew led the Jaguars in dropbacks in 2020 while ranking ninth (among all quarterbacks with 50 or more dropbacks) in pressure rate responsible to the quarterback position (21.4%) per PFF.
Lawrence is surrounded by skill players as far as the eye can see, with Etienne, Robinson, Chark, Jones and Laviska Shenault all at his disposal. Add in the upside for 400-plus rushing yards and end-zone dives, and Lawrence has a shot at making it three years in a row a rookie quarterback finishes the season inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game. — Derek Brown
Laviska Shenault, WR
An enraged minotaur after the catch, ‘Viska inflicts violence on defenders with the courage to dare stand in his way. As a rookie last season, his 5.17 YAC per reception slid inside the top-20 among WRs who logged at least a 50% snap share. He also checked in at a respectable WR25 in fantasy points per snap despite his unsightly standing in on-target percentage (WR89).
As discussed above with Chark, all vertical weapons stand to benefit from the upgrade at QB. Hopefully, too, Darrell Bevell’s creativity as a play caller will utilize Shenault’s unique skill set to the fullest. Short-field tied last year, he notched a miserable 6.58-yard aDOT. If allowed to venture a little further downfield, he could develop into a blend of Jarvis Landry and Curtis Samuel. In Year 2, 70-75 receptions, 850-plus combined yards with 7-8 TDs are achievable. At his WR43 (96.91) ADP, he’s a dynamite WR4 dripping with upside in 12-team 0.5 PPR formats. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Jaguars 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Trevor Lawrence to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300, DraftKings)
I’m doubling down with Mr. Evans here. Rookie quarterbacks have taken home the award in six of the last 11 years, including each of the last two. — Derek Brown
Trevor Lawrence to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300, DraftKings)
His cool factor pales in comparison to his older, quite fashionable brother, but the Blonde Bomber is the OROY frontrunner for a reason. I’m fully on board for him to exceed 4,200 passing yards with 25-28 combined TDs. — Brad Evans
