Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Hello Kitties.
Fantasy Football Booms – Lions
T.J. Hockenson, TE
T.J. Hockenson looks poised to take another step forward this year and enter into the league’s elite tight end tier. As crazy as it sounds, Detroit’s new check-down artist, Jared Goff, could help propel him up that mountain. Over the last two seasons, Hockenson has seen 26.3% of his targets over the short middle of the field where Goff likes to pepper receivers. Since 2019 Goff has targeted the short middle on 24.4% of his throws.
Hockenson showed last year that he’s just beginning to scratch the surface as a dynamic playmaker. In 2020 he ranked eighth in missed tackles forced (8) and fourth in yards after the catch (318) among all tight ends. With a quarterback that is allergic to pushing the ball outside the numbers and a lack of other established receiving options Hockenson will see a bump from last season’s 18.0% target share. Hockenson has top-three tight end upside that you can access (TE6, 61.9 overall) in the fifth and sixth rounds of drafts. — Derek Brown
D’Andre Swift, RB
Hockenson is the obvious choice, but the sophomore rusher deserves a vote of confidence. After OC Anthony Lynn supposedly dashed dreams of a Swift surge with ‘A’ and ‘B’ tandem back balderdash earlier this summer, prospective fantasy investors jumped off the bandwagon in droves. With folks frightened by the prospects of pedestrian Jamaal Williams siphoning touches, Swift, predictably, has often plummeted in drafts, occasionally landing in the early portion of Round 4 in .5 PPR exercises. Buy on the bear.
The Lions are projected underdogs in every game this season. Swift may not exceed 200 carries this season, but, due to likely negative game scripts, he’ll be heavily involved in the pass game. Top-12 in yards per route run and catch rate a season ago, he’s a viable 65 catch candidate. He may not muster another 10 touchdowns, but even if he slices 2-3 scores off last year’s total, he’s a firm RB2 in 12-team formats, particularly those that score handsomely for receptions. Let fraidy cats panic over Lynn’s “hot hand” comments. Swift’s quick twitch and versatile skill set should award backers a nice numbers haul this fall. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Lions
Jared Goff, QB
On a team with few reliable fantasy options, picking on Goff is the lowest of low-hanging fruit. His struggles in Detroit will be akin to this writer’s inability to grow long-flowing, Gardner Minshew-esque locks. Even in Scott Fish, a league that features a SuperFlex, he’s a double-digit round only selection. When reflecting back to his peak days with the Rams, one should marvel at the brilliance of Sean McVay. The HC did a masterful job masking Goff’s downfield weaknesses (QB32 in deep-ball cmp% in ‘20), by maximizing his play-action execution. The passer will never come close to sniffing the 32 TD passes tossed in 2018. He’s putrid, a player who deservedly has one of the lowest passing TD prop totals (20.5) across the league. -BE
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift‘s current ADP (RB16, 33.6 overall) is making some assumptions with some unknown factors. With Anthony Lynn, we can’t be sure that Swift will be the Lions’ preferred red zone rusher. Austin Ekeler knows this pain all too well during his nine full games played last season. He saw 18 red zone carries to the 22 combined carries for Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley. Swift is a stout back, but we can’t say with absolute certainty he won’t be pulled at the goal line on occasion. On a team that doesn’t project to be in scoring position often, Swift can’t afford to lose these money opportunities to Jamaal Williams.
The other expectation is that Williams won’t cut into Swift’s targets at all. While there’s no disputing that Swift is the better receiving back, Williams is no scrub running routes. In 2019, he ranked 29th in yards per route run among all running backs with 20 or more targets. At Swift’s ADP, I’ll either target Clyde Edwards-Helaire earlier or take a wide receiver.— Derek Brown
Fantasy football breakouts for the Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown landed in one of the best-case scenarios you could imagine for a fourth-round NFL draft pick for his rookie season. St. Brown airdrops into a situation where he’ll be asked to move back into the slot where he enjoyed his most productive season at USC. Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams will operate outside while St. Brown can eat up the middle of the field.
In 2019, St. Brown played 87.9% of his snaps out of the slot with 1.94 yards per route run. With Anthony Lynn overseeing the offense, he should be a full-time player for Detroit. Last season, the Chargers ranked sixth in 11 personnel utilizing it on 71% of their offensive plays. St. Brown is currently free in drafts as the WR76 (172.2 Overall). Enjoy the massive Detroit discount for a player that could challenge T.J. Hockenson for the team lead in targets in 2021. — Derek Brown
Breshad Perriman, WR
His QB may pack a low-pressure water pistol, but tallying a 65-900-6 line isn’t far-fetched. Hockenson is destined to set the pace in targets, receptions, yards and TDs, but Tyrell Williams and fourth-round rookie Armon-Ra St. Brown should play firm third and fourth roles. Perriman experienced a mini-breakthrough in 2019 with Tampa. His four-game tear from Weeks 14-17, which accounted for 20 receptions, 419 receiving yards and five TDs, vaulted waiver wire hawks to a fantasy football championship. It was the first time in an otherwise bust-worthy career, the former first-round pick realized his potential.
Goff, who posted a lousy 71.5 passer rating on deep balls last season, isn’t the most exquisite pairing. However, with a clear path to 100 targets, Perriman is a hidden late-round gem (WR73, 198.4 ADP) sure to provide the occasional spark. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Lions 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
T.J. Hockenson OVER 800.5 receiving yards – (PointsBet, +105)
Last year, competing with Marvin Jones for targets, Hockenson averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game. This season, he’s spearheading this aerial attack and would only need to average 47.1 receiving yards per game over the 17-game season to hit the over here. — Derek Brown
D’Andre Swift OVER 52.5 receptions (PointsBet, -115)
With Detroit chasing the scoreboard early and often, Swift is bound to be a favorite of noodle-armed Goff. As discussed above, 65 catches are a very real possibility. — Brad Evans
