Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Tennessee Titans

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Music City Miracles.

Booms

Derrick Henry, RB

Smashing and dashing his way to career-setting numbers, the new Football Frankenstein proved to be a relentless, yards-consuming monster in 2019. The engine underneath the hood of Arthur Smith’s ground heavy offense, he totaled over 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns, paving a path of riches for all who invested at his Round 4 ADP. 

Examine Henry’s secondary profile for hours on end and the same conclusion is drawn — stud. He ranked No. 2 in yards after contact per attempt (4.18), forced a missed tackle 19.6% of the time and slotted at No. 5 in yards created per carry. As multiple Jacksonville Jaguars would vouch, attempting to tackle the bruising back is the ultimate “business decision.” In an era overrun with timeshare backfields, Henry is an old school Clydesdale. 

OT Jack Conklin’s departure presents an enormous void on the Titans offensive line, but there’s enough remaining talent to land the unit inside top-10 in run-blocking metrics. With Smith committed to Henry and given the general continuity on offense, he possesses an extraordinarily high floor. Seeing him slip to the turn in recent 12-team drafts, he’s a safe selection. Expect some regression, but final numbers around 1,500 total yards and 13-15 touchdowns is a near lock. — Brad Evans

A.J. Brown, WR

Like the Titans in general, Brown was a pleasant surprise last season. The former Ole Miss wideout got off to a slow start, but really seemed to riff well with Ryan Tannehill once he took over the starting job. Brown was especially electric down the stretch, posting four top-10 finishes over the final six weeks of the season and ranking behind only Michael Thomas in fantasy scoring among wide receivers during that stretch.

It’s easy to fall in love with all of that production, but it’s wise to at least slightly pump the brakes, as Brown scored a hefty four touchdowns of 40-plus yards. That unsustainable even for the best players in the league. Still, he’s positioned well to lead the Titans wideouts and have more than enough upside to be a WR2-plus. — Jeff Ratcliffe

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Busts

A.J. Brown, WR

Shades of Andre Johnson in terms of size, speed and pipes, Brown was one of fantasy football’s rookie sensations a season ago. The first-year rocket smoothly transitioned and immediately transformed into a nuclear downfield weapon. On 84 targets he corralled 52 passes for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. His resulting 20.2 yards per catch, WR1 standing in YAC per reception (8.88) and 13.6-yard average depth of target wowed. 

Undoubtedly, he moved the meter and his pure talent is unquestionable, but with a low target yield, particularly inside the red zone (16.7%), one wonders if his production is sustainable. Tennessee, after all, is a run-heavy offense built on the legs of Henry and not the arm of Ryan Tannehill. To justify his WR16 (41.8) ADP, the sophomore will have to again operate at peak efficiency. As a betting man, those odds seem long. Regression, not progression, is the most likely outcome. A finish south of 1,000 yards with 5-7 TDs is believable. — Brad Evans

Jonnu Smith, TE

With Delanie Walker finally out of the way, it’s now Smith’s show in Tennessee. We have seen him in the lead role for the Titans in the past two seasons due to Walker injuries, and Smith has flashed upside with seven top-10 weekly finishes over the last season and a half. That said, his 5.2-yard average depth of target is extremely low, even for a tight and, and does not indicate any upside.

We’ll really need to see the Titans change how their using Smith if we’re going to consider him as anything more than a touchdown-dependent option. And that's not to mention the fact that Tennessee's run-heavy offense puts a cap on Smith's volume. Keep these points in mind on draft day and opt for someone else if you decide to go the late-round tight end approach. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Jonnu Smith, TE

In a deep tight end class, possibly the deepest we’ve ever seen, “Juggernaut” Jonnu is a mid-tiered target who is likely to profit. The Titans coaching staff has repeatedly praised him this offseason, talking up his athleticism, route expansion and overall improvements. On the surface, he has all the trappings for a breakthrough campaign. 

Drilling down, Smith was spectacular in limited doses last season. Ignore his surface 35-439-3 line and unadmirable 5.2-yard average depth of target. He caught 79.5% of his intended looks and compiled the second most YAC per reception (8.06) on the year. 

Tennessee, largely conservative on offense, passed the pill at a 50.2% clip last season. With Brown and Corey Davis on roster, Will Smith receive enough looks to vault into the TE top-12? If his 11.1% target share climbs into the 16-18% range, it’s doable. For now, he’s affordable, but the hype could quickly accelerate (TE15, 127.7 ADP). — Brad Evans