Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Swashbuckling Bradys.
Booms
Mike Evans, WR
Perception often doesn’t meet reality with Evans. The Bucs wideout has been one of the most productive players in the league, topping 1,000 receiving yards in all six of his NFL seasons. Let that one sink in.
Sure, he doesn’t have as high a catch rate as someone like Michael Thomas, but that’s largely due to his much higher average depth of target. Evans routinely sees targets 15-plus yards downfield where completion rates are lower.
That’s not a knock at all. If anything, it’s exactly what you want to see out of your fantasy receivers. Deeper targets mean more upside. And while the popular narrative suggest Tom Brady won’t be able to deliver those targets, I disagree. Evans has just as much fantasy upside as ever and is locked in as a top-10 fantasy wideout. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Rob Gronkowski, TE
No longer grinding on random inanimate objects or clotheslining bulked up bronzed bodies, Gronk, through the power of CBD, is healed and ready to regain his rightful position among TE1s.
Yes, the accumulated rust is bound to play a factor, but the future HOFer, by his own admission, is healthy and reinvigorated. With Chris Godwin and Evans on roster, the competition for targets is fierce. Still, Bruce Arians’ deployment of a 12-formation base elevates the decorated TEs odds for a career resurrection. Obviously, so does his storied history with Tom Brady. In 131 career games, playoffs included, the pair hooked up for 91 touchdowns. Alongside death, taxes and hip-hop Twitter feuds, TB12-to-Gronk for six is one of life’s great consistencies.
To penetrate the TE top-10 and profit at his 115.3 (TE12) ADP, Gronk simply needs to finish in the range of 55-600-5, an easily achievable threshold. Securing the yardage is the tallest mountain to climb but 5-7 vintage end-zone spikes are in my fearless forecast. — Brad Evans
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Busts
Rob Gronkowski, TE
After spending 2019 in retirement, Gronk returns and will again be paired up with Brady. There’s no question Gronkowski is one of the greatest tight ends of all time, but he’s far from his prime. And we need to be keenly aware of that for fantasy purposes, as it’s easy to overvalue players with household names.
Let’s be clear that Gronk is going to get his this season, but we should also expect to see plenty of 12-personnel. That means O.J. Howard and possibly even Cameron Brate will be in the mix. Even Gronk at 75% is still the superior option, but don’t expect triple-digit targets for the future Hall of Famer. And there’s also the very really injury concerns. It’s best to view Gronkowski as a risk/reward back-end TE1. With his lengthy injury history, he’s certainly more on the risk side of things than he is on the reward side. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Mike Evans, WR
Banned from the annual Evans family reunion? Some would disallow the presence of this scribe in favor of the Tampa wide receiver, but for fantasy devices, he ranks up there with funky-smelling Uncle Jack.
With Godwin, Gronk, O.J. Howard and others on roster, grumbling stomachs and open mouths will be aplenty inside Raymond James Stadium this year. Brady, who ranked QB9 in deep-ball passer rating chucking balls to a ragtag group in New England last fall, is still an effective downfield thrower, which bodes well for Evans’ yardage potential. The biggest concern, however, are opportunities near the pylons. Unless he leaves defenders sucking wind on long connections, TDs could be infrequent. It’s doubtful his 29.8 red-zone target percentage from 2019 sustains.
Evans is one of the game’s premier field stretchers. He ranked WR8 in average depth of target last season (15.7), WR2 in total air yards and averaged 17.3 yards per catch. For him to profit at his 27.5 (WR8) ADP, he’ll need to cash in another eight times, which isn’t a guarantee. — Brad Evans
Breakouts
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB
While Vaughn certainly wasn’t one of the highest-profile backs in this year’s draft, the Bucs believed enough in him to select him on Day 2. The question is: should we be believing in him for fantasy purposes? Vaughn is a one-cut back who flashed upside in 2018, but his numbers did take a bit of a hit in 2019. That said, he tested well in the pre-draft process and has a golden opportunity to make an instant impact.
Incumbent Bucs back Ronald Jones is one of the worst pass-blocking backs in the league and he’s been wildly inconsistent as a runner. The Bucs did also bring in veteran LeSean McCoy. His name is well-known in fantasy circles, but McCoy is way past his prime. Don’t expect him to do much more than be an early-season contributor.
Vaughn may not make a huge impact in September, and that’s fine. Patience is going to be key here, as I fully expect him to emerge down the stretch. Keep that in mind if you draft him. You’re likely going to have to sit on him for half a season before you get a return on investment. However, he’s likely to provide some major bang for your buck when he eventually takes over. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB
From landing on the COVID-19/reserve list to the signing of LeSean McCoy, it’s been a tumultuous, value-draining few days for the rookie. But despite the puke-inducing bumps on the campaign trail, #VoteforVaughn still applies. It’s an election year after all.
It’s indisputable Ronald Jones has a clear leg up on the rookie. He’s a veteran who bulked up this offseason to improve his overall game, especially when flattening the blitz. To maintain command over Tampa’s presumed RBBC, he’ll need to build off last season’s advancements and, most importantly, keep Brady clean.
Patience must be exercised, but Vaughn is a talented multidimensional back who is one Jones slump away from significant touches. On a Vanderbilt team trotting out a permeable offensive line, he excelled across the board. Among FBS RBs he ranked No. 27 in total missed tackles forced and posted a dynamite 3.73 YAC per attempt. In terms of physical makeup, he’s reminiscent of Doug Martin. He isn’t spectacular in any single category but he’s rock-solid across the board. Also sure-handed and terrific in pass pro, he has an outside shot of becoming this year’s Miles Sanders. Even cheaper post-McCoy exhumation, he’s one of the best upside selections after pick No. 100 (RB42, 102.5 ADP). — Brad Evans
