Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Fly Eagles, Fly.
Booms
Carson Wentz, QB
On the surface, Wentz’ 2019 numbers don’t look that impressive. But when we consider the circumstances in the Philly passing game, he actually did an extraordinary job. Injuries decimated the Eagles wide receiver corps, causing the team to scrape the bottom of the barrel by the end of the season. And Wentz was still able to top 4,000 passing yards and finish as fantasy’s No. 11 signal caller.
Of course, a big part of that was due to Philly’s elite tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Wentz will lean heavily on them this season, but he also has added speed on the outside in rookie Jalen Reagor. Wentz is a sneaky upside option who can be had for a reasonable discount in 2020 drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Boston Scott, RB
The undrafted product from LA Tech embodies his school’s mascot — pure bulldog. Short, squatty, assertive and unfazed, the former Saints castoff took advantage of a late season audition, carving out a fantasy viable role within Doug Pederson’s merry-go-round backfield.
Channeling the football spirit of Darren Sproles, he was flexy sexy from Weeks 14-17. During the four-game stretch he ranked RB7 in 0.5 PPR. Working in tandem with Miles Sanders, he averaged 87.5 total yards per game, piled up 23 receptions and tallied four total touchdowns on just over 15 touches per contest. His 11.5 yards after contact per reception and 3.97 YAC per attempt were extraordinary. Icing on the cake, he was 3-for-3 for the year on carries for TDs inside the 5. In summary, when he touched the rock sparks flew.
Every offseason report has Scott entering the year in a complementary role. Knowing Pederson’s desire to rotate backs, he should command upward of 10-12 touches per game, even if LeSean McCoy or another lame-duck veteran enters the mix. Also weighing Philly’s terrific offensive line, the second fiddle is worth plucking at his 127.8 ADP (RB50). — Brad Evans
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Busts
Alshon Jeffery, WR
Father Time isn’t kind to most football players. Jeffery seemed to age several years last season alone and dropped from a fringe-WR2 to a barely startable fantasy option. Sure, he posted top-10 fantasy finishes in Weeks 6 and 13, but Jeffery’s declining efficiency and limited volume made him tough to trust.
To make matters worse, Jeffery is dealing with a foot injury that has sidelined him all offseason. The Eagles have publicly claimed that Jeffery remains a big part of their plans, but actions speak louder than words. The team also draft three receivers, including Reagor in the first round. All signs point to Jeffery’s days as a fantasy option being in the past. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Carson Wentz, QB
No, this scribe isn’t gripped by gingerphobia. Fears over Wentz stem from a deeper, more statistically driven place, one that drives away thoughts of selecting the passer at his rather pricey QB9 (107.9) ADP.
From a 10,000-foot perspective, Wentz exhibits the makeup and numerical profile of a sure-fire QB1 in 12-team leagues. A sneaky scoring dualist, he averaged 252.4 pass yards per game and 15.2 rush yards per game over 14 contests in 2019, tacking on 28 combined touchdowns. He also slipped inside the top-10 in completed air yards. However, mediocre finishes in several advanced categories, including adjusted completion percentage (QB20), deep-ball passer rating (QB22), average depth of target (QB20) and red-zone completion percentage (QB18), reduce confidence. So does his vulnerability to injury.
If Jalen Reagor assimilates quickly, Alshon Jeffery recovers in time for Week 1 and DeSean Jackson somehow remains upright, Wentz could leave egg on this writer’s face. But weighing the downsides, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady are more trustworthy passers available at a round or three discount. — Brad Evans
Breakouts
Jalen Reagor, WR
The dynamic playmaker out of TCU is coming off an impressive college career where he found pay-dirt 22 times and posted a healthy 15.2 yards per catch. While his 4.47 40-yard dash time didn’t quick set the combine a blaze, Reagor did perform very well in the explosion events with a 42-inch vert and 11-foot-6 in the broad.
In terms of his fit with the Eagles, Reagor gives Philly a downfield threat they sorely lacked last season. Wentz has shown a propensity to push the ball downfield if he has the weapons to do so, which bodes well for Reagor right out of the gate. With Jeffery and DeSean Jackson getting long in the tooth, there’s a chance Reagor leads the Eagles wideouts in fantasy scoring this season. To be clear, he profiles as a very boom-or-bust fantasy option. But Reagor’s high ceiling bodes well for him to hit the ground running in Philly. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Dallas Goedert, TE
Pederson loves running 12 formations like a certain balding fantasy football voice adores the Mexican love juice. Last year, the head coach featured two-TE sets on over 50% of team snaps, unquestionably the highest in the league.
Last season, Zach Ertz was the primary beneficiary, but Goedert served as the ultimate sidekick. On 15.5% of the Eagles’ target share, 19.2% inside the red zone, he snared 58 passes for 607 yards and five touchdowns. Highly reliable (74.4% catch percentage) and tough to wrangle after the catch (6.10 YAC/rec). he excelled whether gashing defenses on seam routes or converting on quick outs.
The once wide schism between Ertz and Goedert is starting to tighten. Is this the year they mirror one another in terms of overall production? Most likely it will remain close to the status quo. If the standard view holds, Philly’s Hutch to the Starsky will again crack the position’s top-12. For the wait-on-a-TE crowd, he possesses oodles of profit potential at his 128.5 (TE15) ADP. — Brad Evans
