Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Minnesota Vikings

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Purple People Eaters. 

Booms

Adam Thielen, WR

A Waterford crystal in pads. Thielen and his fragile hamstrings were exactly that a season ago. As a result, the langskip ran aground finishing shy of the 10-point PPR threshold in five of 10 contests. Yikes. 

Not all hope was lost after last season’s abysmal injury-ridden effort. Thielen still managed to crack the top-three in fantasy points per target, despite finishing WR80 in catchable target percentage. This fall with the volume likely cranked after Stefon Diggs’ departure, a receiver who accounted for just over 21% of Minnesota’s target share, and knowing Gary Kubiak’s desire to throw more, a renaissance on par with numbers tallied in 2018 is a realistic expectation. 

Last year, the Vikes pounded the pill 50.5% of the time. With continuity on offense, adding Justin Jefferson and with Kubiak at the helm the scales should tip to favor the pass. Given Kirk Cousins’ accurate arm (QB4 in adjusted completion percentage in ‘19) and the steep learning curve for Jefferson in these coronavirus-influenced times, the floor for Thielen, assuming full health, is 90-1,150-6. 

Follow the volume, pluck the receiver at his slashed price (38.2, WR14 ADP) and you may soon hoist the hardware. The crafty wideout is about to storm back with a vengeance. — Brad Evans

Adam Thielen, WR

Theilen had one of the most spectacular runs in recent fantasy history to start out 2018. He rattled off seven straight top-10 fantasy finishes and was outside of the top-30 wideouts just two times on the season. His numbers weren’t nearly as good last year as the he battled injuries and the Vikings transitioned to more of a run-heavy approach.

That offensive philosophy remains in place, but there’s plenty of appeal to Thielen with Stefon Diggs out of the mix. Minnesota did draft Justin Jefferson in the first round of April’s draft, but Thielen figures to see heavy volume this year with essentially no one to compete with for targets. He doesn’t come with the highest fantasy ceiling, but Thielen’s floor makes him a very appealing value if you can snag him in the fourth round. — Jeff Ratcliffe

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Busts

Dalvin Cook, RB

Five-star Michelin rated last season, Cook served his backers a buffet of fantasy goodness. Routinely Plowing through would-be tacklers, he lived up to the immense promise totaling 1,672 combined yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 contests. 

Under the hood, Cook, similar to what he achieved on the surface, barbecued the competition. He piled up 3.06 yards after contact per attempt, forced a missed tackle on 20.1% of his attempts and ranked No. 12 in yards created per carry. Minnesota’s big uglies, which worked harmoniously in Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme, deserve measurable praise, but so does Cook. His assertive one-cut and go moves meshed seamlessly within the scheme. 

Still, with a capable complement just over his shoulder in Alexander Mattison and given his injury proneness, the downsides are palpable. Throwing gas on the fire, Cook’s demands for a new contract and threat to hold out only increases the unease. Melvin Gordon? Le’Veon Bell? Anyone? 

Mitigating risk is paramount in Round 1. For my liking, Cook possesses too much of it. — Brad Evans

Kirk Cousins, QB

He was touted as a rock-solid late-round target last year, and that advice was at least somewhat right for Cousins. Following a rough first month of the season where he failed to crack the top-24 in any week, Cousins caught fire. The Vikings signal caller posted five top-10 fantasy finishes in Weeks 5-11 and ranked second among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring over that span.

But the good times didn’t last. Cousins was downright dreadful for fantasy purposes down the stretch, ranking a lowly 28th over the final month of the fantasy season. To make matters worse, Cousins will be without Diggs this season. The Vikings did draft Jefferson, but it’s tough to get behind Cousins heading into this season. Minnesota’s run-centric offense puts a major damper on Cousins’ ceiling and he’ll likely prove to be an inconsistent fantasy option yet again this year. Fade him in 1QB leagues and tread lightly in 2QB and superflex formats. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Justin Jefferson, WR

Catching darts from cucumber cool Joe Burrow on a national title team last year, Jefferson regularly stood out. At 6-foot-1, 202 pounds, he exhibits the wheels (4.43 40-yard), route technique, separation skills and after catch abilities to leave an indelible mark. Most impressively, he posted an unreal 92.3% success rate on contested catches and totaled the fourth-most missed tackles among FBS WRs. 

Equally noteworthy, the rookie is versatile. Two years ago, he lined up primarily outside. Last year, he operated out of the slot on 78% of his routes. Diggs notched a 15.4% slot rate last fall. It’s likely Jefferson will command most of that work with Thielen sliding outside. If he can entice roughly six targets per game, he’s a viable 60-875-5 producer in his kickoff campaign. 

As other drafters are snapping tendons for rookies CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Jalen Reagor, Jefferson, who is going some 40-45 picks later in average drafts (143.2 ADP, WR58), is on track to turn a lucrative ROI. — Brad Evans

Alexander Mattison, RB

Perhaps no running back outside of the top 30 at the position has the chance for his value to increase as much as Mattison. If Dalvin Cook decides to hold out into the regular season, Mattison would skyrocket. While we may not go as far as calling him this year’s version of 2019 Austin Ekeler, Mattison would be an instant top-15 running back if Cook misses regular season time.

Of course, that’s all speculation at this point, and without a holdout Mattison is really just a handcuff. That said, he’s a darn good handcuff given the upside he displayed in his rookie season, and Cook’s propensity for injury. Mattison could also have some deeper value independent of his handcuff status given the Vikings’ extremely run-heavy approach. Regardless of Cook’s status, Mattison has major sleeper appeal. — Jeff Ratcliffe