WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Los Angeles Stepchildren.
Booms
Austin Ekeler, RB
Melvin Gordon’s holdout opened the door for Ekeler at the start of the 2019 season, and he came storming through with three top-five weekly finishes over the first four games. Only Christian McCaffrey had more fantasy points over that span. While Gordon’s return did put a slight damper of Ekeler’s production, he still managed four more top-10 finishes and ranked fifth among running backs in fantasy scoring over the final 13 weeks of the season.
With Gordon out of the way, Ekeler is primed to be the man in LA, but let’s be clear that the Chargers aren’t going to simply hand him 25 touches per game. There’s going to be a committee in that backfield with Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley in the mix. The good news is that Ekeler can still be an RB1 thanks to his heavy involvement in the passing game. He’s very much in the mix as a top-12 running back in fantasy drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Austin Ekeler, RB
Ekeler is a man of many talents. Whether driving piles, evading tacklers in space, catching passes, sprinting upfield, doing one-armed pull-ups (70 strength, Madden?!) or eviscerating lamebrained fantasy “experts” on social media, the Swiss Army Knife exudes phenomenal sharpness.
Maximization is the name of the game for Ekeler. Every touch, every chance he lives by carpe diem. When called upon early in 2019 to shoulder the load, he doled out persistent punishment. From Weeks 1-5 on 19.6 touches per contest he averaged 116.6 total yards per game and scored six touchdowns, jolting all who attempted to impede him. Even when Melvin Gordon returned from his self-imposed hiatus, he continued to run roughshod through defenses netting 3.23 yards after contact per attempt while forcing a missed tackle on 23.2% of his touches.
Some will shy away from Ekeler due to the presences of Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley, an imbecile move. Yes, OC Shane Steichen plans to feature the pistol, but under the coach’s direction Weeks 9-17 Ekeler averaged 99.0 total yards per game and scored four touchdowns on roughly 35% of the opportunity share. And don’t spew your “But Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw to his backs” rotten takes. Remember, LeSean McCoy topped 50 receptions in consecutive seasons playing with the QB in Buffalo from 2016-2017. No, he won’t catch another 92 balls, but 65-75 is entirely doable.
Unmistakably, Ekeler is worth every penny anytime in Round 2. Peak efficient, he’s sure to pack a statistical whollup in range of 1,350 combined yards with 8-10 TDs. Buy a ticket for the gun show. — Brad Evans
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Busts
Tyrod Taylor, QB
Teams can tell you whatever they want at press conferences, but they can’t lie with their roster moves. Drafting a quarterback at six overall isn’t a move that teams make if they plan on sitting on that quarterback for the whole season. Just look to the Giants last year. There was some speculation Eli Manning would have a fairly long leash, and that wasn’t even close to what happened. Daniel Jones was under center as the starter by Week 3.
Let’s be clear that this isn’t a knock on Taylor. He’s one of the most mobile signal callers in the league and has shown the ability to put up fantasy points when given the opportunity to start. And he’ll likely have that opportunity to start at the beginning of the season. However, a solid fantasy start for Taylor will likely end up being a red herring to the bigger question of when Justin Herbert will be under center. Given his draft pedigree, it’s hard to see a scenario where Herbert isn’t starting by the end of September. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Mike Williams, WR
Similar to what another Los Angeles receiver, Robert Woods, experienced, Williams totaled one of the most one-sided seasons in NFL history. An explosive field stretcher with special high-point and ball-tracking skills, he became the 17th player ever to cross the 1,000-yard receiving mark while scoring two or fewer touchdowns. Considering his 6-foot-4 frame, chunk play persona (18.3-yard aDOT, 20.2 YPC) and equal number of red-zone targets (24) as Chris Godwin, it’s hard to fathom he spiked the ball just twice. Philip Rivers’ struggles near the goal line combined with Williams’ mediocrity after the catch (WR62 in YAC/rec) provide suitable explanations.
Given his outward talents, Williams should have only one direction to go. However, the change of guard at quarterback prompts questions. The last time Tyrod Taylor took to the field over a sizable sample, with Buffalo in 2017, he ranked QB20 in deep-ball passer rating. Also largely inaccurate that season, he slotted at QB27 in adjusted completion percentage, tied with world beater Matt Cassel, the Dallas version.
Whether with Taylor or raw rookie Justin Herbert at the controls, Williams’ fantasy production is bound to suffer. Golden Tate, Jerry Jeudy and Emmanuel Sanders are wiser choices within the Charger’s ADP tier (WR47, 114.3). — Brad Evans
Breakouts
Justin Jackson, RB
With Gordon out of the mix, Jackson has a prime opportunity to assume a big chunk of the vacated touches in the Chargers’ backfield. Of course, he’s far from a lock to do so, as the Chargers did spend a Day 3 pick on UCLA’s Joshua Kelley. However, for now, he’s the favorite in the clubhouse to play the 1A role to Ekeler.
Jackson only saw 29 carries last season, but he managed an impressive 6.9 yards per carry with 4.17 of them coming after contact. While Jackson isn’t the best bet on the board, he has enough juice along with added handcuff value to warrant late-round consideration. The good news is that you’re essentially going to get him for free at the end of drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Tyrod Taylor, QB
When the beer buzz really begins to pollute the psyche is where you’ll find the former Bills starter in your fantasy drafts. He’s an afterthought, a bridge QB expected to hand over the job to top-five overall pick Justin Herbert at some juncture this season. Some believe it could happen within the first few weeks. Others, however, peg the veteran for 10 or more starts. Place this rather vociferous scribe in the latter group.
Eyeing L.A.’s first half schedule, it’s conceivable they’re a .500-plus franchise. With an above average offensive line and unyielding defense, they should be highly competitive. If those expectations are satisfied, the journeyman passer would pack surprising value, particularly for those in 2QB or superflex formats. Why? Scoring duality.
Looking past his flaws, Taylor is a multidimensional threat who twice ranked inside the QB top-15. He produced modest vertical numbers with Buffalo 2015-2016, but his back-to-back campaigns with 560-plus rush yards and 4-6 ground TDs raised the profile. Even in a full season 20 passing TDs isn’t attainable, but he could duplicate what Jeff Driskel was last fall over a more significant stretch. The Detroit passer notched 228.3 pass yards per game, 50.3 rush yards per game and totaled five combined scores over three games. His resulting 20.2 fantasy points per contest was QB1 level.
Final word, don’t immediately dismiss Tyrod, not at his rock bottom QB30 (231.6) ADP. — Brad Evans
