Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Jacksonville Jaguars

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Shad Khan’s Mildcats.

Booms

Leonard Fournette, RB

The disdain toward Fournette is puzzling. Is it the team affiliation? Chris Thompson’s arrival? Lack of TDs? Injury downside? Trade rumors? Undiagnosed case of the cooties? All of the above? Whatever the influence, fantasy drafters are distancing themselves in droves from one of the game’s premier tackle breakers, a hilarious move considering he’s a rare high-volume back in an era dominated by timeshares. 

Underestimate Fournette at your own risk. It’s unlikely he’ll again shoulder 90.1% of the opportunity share, but 17-20 touches per game is an acceptable baseline within Jay Gruden’s offense. Still busting through defenders with the power of a runaway beer truck, he accumulated 3.34 yards after contact per attempt (RB11) and forced a missed tackle 19.9% of the time in 2019. His accumulated 1,674 total yards was all the more impressive when considering he faced eight or more defenders in the box on 31.7% of his attempts. 

Yes, the Jags offensive line was shoved around like ragdolls last season and Fournette’s chances of replicating his 76 catches are slim to none, but he, after scoring a measly three TDs last season, is a textbook positive regression candidate. Stiff arm the injury imp and he compiles 1,400 total yards with 6-8 TDs. No one would shake a stick at that at his Round 3 price point (RB15, 26.6 ADP). — Brad Evans

D.J. Chark, WR

One of the biggest fantasy surprises of 2019, Chark exploded out of the gate and ranked fifth among wideouts in fantasy scoring over the first eight weeks of the season. During that stretch, he notched an impressive six touchdowns. His production did drop off from there, but Chark still managed to crack the top 20 on the season.

Heading into 2020, he's now locked in as the clear No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville. While Gardner Minshew is still a bit of a wild card under center, we did see a plus connection between these two last year. Chark is very much in play as a WR3 with a high weekly ceiling. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

No bust

Candidly, Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook or Tyler Eifert, all 11th-hour picks at a maximum in fantasy drafts, were not worth my time and energy. Carry on, gamer. — Brad Evans

Chris Thompson, RB

The Jags brought in the veteran back in the offseason and he’ll slot in behind Fournette on the depth chart. In some ways this move makes sense, as Fournette caught a massive 76 balls out of the backfield last year. Adding another body does give Jacksonville a little more diversity and that ability to not have to lean so heavily on Fournette.

But is Thompson the right body? Many fantasy players think kindly of him given the explosive ability he showed in his time with Washington. But nostalgia is no way to evaluate a player for fantasy purposes. Thompson will turn 30 in October and has missed a combined 17 games over the last three years. He may look good early in the season, but his recent injury history doesn’t paint a favorable picture. Thompson isn’t worth fantasy consideration this year. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Gardner Minshew, QB

Last fall showcasing a cookie duster which rivaled Joe Namath’s old school lip hair or Luigi’s, Minshew immediately gained sports media stardom. Though his personality was fun-loving and an inspiration for Halloween costumes everywhere, he was only a modest producer for fantasy purposes. Over 14 games he averaged 233.6 pass yards and 24.6 rushing yards per game and totaled 21 touchdowns. Solid for a rookie, but, again, nothing to write home about for virtual game devices. 

Minshew’s secondary profile does lend confidence a forward leap is on the horizon. Shockingly, he was the best quarterback on deep ball throws last year, posting a 122.0 passer rating. However, he underwhelmed on short-to-intermediate passes, strange considering he registered noteworthy success rates on such tosses while at Washington St. If he can split jersey numbers with more consistency, particularly near the goal-line (QB47 in red zone completion percentage in ‘19), he should cash handsomely at his QB24 (174.1 overall) ADP. Similar to Joe Burrow and TyRod Taylor, he’s a sneaky scoring dualist chilling in the later rounds. — Brad Evans

Ryquell Armstead, RB

While Thompson doesn’t offer much appeal as a deep fantasy option, Armstead is more intriguing. The second-year man appeared in 14 games last year, but only saw 49 touches. But in that limited work, he flashed some juice, scoring two times as a receiver and averaging a healthy 10.3 yards per catch.

He’ll likely open the season buried on the depth chart, so I’m not sure we consider drafting Armstead in regular-sized leagues. But the Temple University product has 4.45 speed and is positioned as the clear handcuff to Fournette. If Fournette went down with an injury, Thompson’s role wouldn’t change. So for now, it’s best to keep Armstead on your watch list, but he might be worth a stash as we get into the season. — Jeff Ratcliffe