Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Green Bay Packers

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Matt LaFleur’s Lads.

Booms

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Just a few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that Rodgers would be going in the late rounds of fantasy drafts, but that’s exactly what will likely happen in 2020 1QB leagues. And really, it isn’t his fault. From a football standpoint, Rodgers was darn good last year. He threw just four picks on the season while tossing 26 scores. He also managed to top 4,000 passing yards, despite really only having one viable receiver in Davante Adams, and even he was hurt for six weeks.

But for fantasy purposes, Rodgers was a roller-coaster ride with a whopping nine weekly finishes outside of the top 20. But it’s key to note that Rodgers has historically been extremely productive from a touchdown standpoint. He topped 30 touchdowns in 5-of-6 seasons 2011-2016 with two 40-touchdown seasons during that stretch.

But it’s tough to toss 30-plus when your running back is gobbling up most of the scores. The good news is that I fully expect Aaron Jones to regress from last year’s impressive efficiency. Fewer touchdowns in the run game will help Rodgers in the passing game. And hey, he is still Aaron Rodgers. That fact alone makes him an appealing target if he’s still on the board in the late rounds. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Aaron Jones, RB

Considering his accomplishments and scheme continuity, the Jones bashing needs to cease. 

Yes, his league-leading 19 TDs from 2019 are bound to regress, but don’t expect an overly harsh correction. He’s a proven and efficient RB who should again log at least 60-65% of the opportunity share. Last season, he generated 3.19 yards after contact per attempt (RB17), totaled the sixth-most yards created and ranked RB5 in yards after contact per reception (9.22). Absurdly, 16 of his 48 red-zone touches converted into scoring spikes. Point blank, the man is a bloodhound who has a nose for the end-zone. Running behind an elite offensive line — Green Bay ranked No. 1 in adjusted line yards allowed last season — and with Aaron Rodgers keeping boxes underloaded (20.7% stack percentage in ‘19), he’s in position to maintain his RB1 status in 12-team leagues. 

Let fraidy cats shiver over A.J. Dillion, Jamaal Williams or whatever other nonsense is convincing them. Jones is a terrific multidimensional RB who shouldn’t slip deep into Round 2. In what could be his final act with the Packers bank on 1,400-plus yards and 11-13 total TDs. — Brad Evans

Busts

Aaron Jones, RB

The curious case of Aaron Jones. Since entering the league in 2017, he’s shown us nothing but upside. Yet at seemingly every turn, the Packers have gone out of their way to cap him in some way shape or form. Typically, that meant a committee with the plodding Jamaal Williams. But Jones was just too good to cap last season, posting a healthy 4.6 yards per carry and scoring a massive 19 total touchdowns.

So why am I labeling him a bust? It’s all about regression, as his touchdown rate from last season is completely unsustainable. Let’s be clear, Jones can still have a solid season in that department with something like eight or nine scores. But even that is a 50% decline from last year. It’s also a 50-point drop.

This is also a matter of the Packers finding yet another way to limit Jones with their second-round selection of A.J. Dillon. That’s not to suggest Dillon will compete with Jones, but both he and Williams will take some of the work off of Jones’ plate. Last year Jones touched the ball 285 times, and my current projections have him at 238. That’s not a massive dropoff, but that is three fewer touches per game. That projected reduction in touches along with touchdown regression is enough smoke to not overvalue Jones in fantasy drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Inside the mind of Mr. Danica Patrick, he’s probably repeatedly asked “Why?” this offseason. Why hasn’t the organization, one he played his entire career for and elevated to championship heights, served the QB’s every need? 

It’s been a bewildering last few months for the aging passer. A full season of Davante Adams — who was plagued by plantar fasciitis for a significant portion of 2019 — is a godsend, but without a definitive second downfield weapon one has to wonder if Rodgers should still be considered a surefire QB1 in 12-team leagues. Yes, blame Adams’ absence all you want, but last fall the signal caller faltered in several key areas. Though his deep-ball zip didn’t suffer (111.2 passer rating), he experienced dramatic declines in adjusted completion percentage (QB23) and red-zone completion percentage (QB17). 

Dillion’s arrival may signal a desire for LaFleur to ground and pound more. A season ago, the Packers only called “run” on 40.2% of their snaps and passed the third-most times inside the red-zone. If that happens, Rodgers, no matter how motivated to prove his doubters the franchise decision makers wrong, will continue his slow decline. Exceeding 4,100 yards and 26 TDs feels like a stretch. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Jace Sternberger, TE

With Jimmy Graham out of the way, it’s Sternberger’s turn to step up for the Packers. We barely saw him in his rookie season, but Sternberger was impressive at Texas A&M. A move tight end, he showed the ability to put up big numbers as a receiver at the college level. After two years at Kansas and a year at the junior college level, Sternberger exploded for 832 yards and 10 touchdowns on 48 catches at Texas A&M in 2018.

Sternberger doesn't have the raw athleticism that we see among some of the top tight ends in the league, but his impressive receiving chops bode well. Likewise, his prime opportunity on the Packers thin depth chart make Sternberger a sneaky deep option. He isn’t someone we should consider drafting in regular-sized leagues, but keep Sterberger on your streamer and DFS radars. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Allen Lazard, WR

Ratcliffe’s call on Sternberger is warranted. Scouts praised his athletic profile and sticky hands out of college. If his route-running has made strides, he’s no question a breakout threat. But Lazard needs to be classified similarly as well. 

Because Devin Funchess owns the speed of an overweight basset hound and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has maddening inconsistencies, Lazard has a legitimate shot of emerging as the Packers’ WR2. In 15 contests last fall, he strung together 35 receptions on 51 targets totaling 477 yards and three TDs. Uneventful, sure, but his 14.2-yard average depth of target and Rodgers’ 115.6 passer rating when targeting lend confidence. Most encouragingly, Rodgers talked up Lazard’s approach and playmaking down the stretch last season. 

With a clear opportunity path, it’s conceivable he draws close to 20% of the target share, assuming an impressive training camp/preseason-if-there-is-one. If he does gain the upper hand, final numbers could climb into the 60-65 catch, 775-825 yard and 4-6 TD range. — Brad Evans