Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Cleveland Browns

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Juggernaut Jim Browns

Booms

Odell Beckham Jr., WR

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Last year wasn’t good for Beckham. Despite all the preseason hype, he failed to deliver for fantasy purposes and finished outside of the WR2s. But believe it or not, that’s actually a good thing for 2020, because we’re going to be able to get him at a value this year.

Sure, it’s easy to dismiss the idea of drafting Beckham given last year’s debacle in Cleveland, but there were plenty of positive signs. Perhaps the biggest one is Beckham’s deep-ball targets. Only Kenny Golladay saw more targets 20-plus yards downfield. While Beckham wasn’t nearly as effective as Golladay, those are extremely valuable targets that are likely to be there again this season.

With the new regime in place in Cleveland, Beckham is poised for a bounce back. While Kevin Stefanski comes from a Minnesota offense that certainly wasn’t one of the league’s pass-heaviest last season, the Vikings did push the ball downfield to Stefon Diggs. Beckham can play that role better than Diggs. Don’t hesitate to draft him in the late-third or beyond. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Odell Beckham Jr., WR

After last season’s disastrous performance by OBJ, even the receiver’s old flame, the kicking net, called off the engagement. With the exception of Chubb and Jarvis Landry backers, everyone felt conned. Future tickets burned. Fantasy rosters crumbled. Beckham, despite a weighty 25.6% target share, finished WR25 in 0.5-PPR scoring. Dreadful. 

Point fingers at Freddie Kitchens’ mind-numbing play calling, Baker Mayfield’s sharp regression or the receiver’s hernia, whatever the reason, his downfall was unmistakable. Still, examining the advanced data, OBJ wasn’t a complete disaster. He ranked inside the top-23 in total yards after contact, average depth of target and contested catch rate, despite posting a WR69 ranking in catchable target percentage. Reportedly “free and clear” physically, he’s a strong bounce back candidate. 

The team’s new direction under Kevin Stefanski combined with OBJ’s renewed energy is a recipe for success, contingent on whether Mayfield resembles the accurate passer from two years ago. If you, like yours truly, buys into that view, scoring an 85-1200-8 WR at a discounted cost (32.1 ADP) is very possible. — Brad Evans

Busts

Kareem Hunt, RB

Once an elite fantasy option, off-field issues led to the Chiefs moving on from Hunt and landed him with an eight-game suspension to start last season. After serving his suspension, Hunt joined the Browns in Week 10 and proceeded to be pretty solid despite having to play second fiddle to Nick Chubb.

While he didn’t record a singled top-10 fantasy week, Hunt ended up ranking 17th among running backs from Week 10 on thanks in large part to the 37 balls he caught over that span. Only five players saw more targets than Hunt over the final eight weeks of the season. With Hunt staying in Cleveland, we expect his role in the passing game to continue.

But as last season showed us, Chubb’s domination of the early-down touches really puts a cap in Hunt’s fantasy value. Looking at the overall numbers from last year seems to have some viewing him as an undervalued PPR value, but his lack of even a single week of high-end production last season would suggest otherwise. He’s best valued in the fringe-RB2 range. Anything more is just too ambitious. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Nick Chubb, RB

Make no mistake, the fantasy points usually flow behind the velvet rope inside the Chubb club. The man is one of the virtual game’s most efficient rushers. Last season he ranked inside the top-five in yards after contact per attempt (3.96) and tallied one of the finest missed tackle rates (23.6%) at the position. He’s a sledgehammer, a bruising downhill runner who pushes piles for repetitive positive gains. 

However, Kareem Hunt’s presence is problematic. Last year, when the pair worked in tandem Weeks 10-17, Chubb’s production noticeably dropped. Over that stretch he still averaged a hefty 19.4 touches per game, but finished RB15 in fantasy points per game. His reduced passing-game role (11-117-0) stunted his overall output. 

Stefanski and OC Chad O’Shea have creative designs to feature Hunt in a dual-threat role. Chubb will continue to operate as a north-south punisher, but his second-half slide in 2019 is worrisome. If Mayfield rediscovers his aerial success from two seasons ago and Cleveland’s improved offensive line delivers, Chubb could easily match last fall’s top-10 finish. A slight reduction, though, is the more likely outcome. At his 11.9 ADP (RB9), you’re buying on the bull. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Baker Mayfield, QB

The fantasy industry had a collective whiff on Mayfield in 2019. Hyped up as a top-10 option, Mayfield didn’t post a top-10 fantasy finish until Week 11 and finished a disappointing 17th at the position in fantasy scoring.

Of course, he was playing for what we now know was a dysfunctional coaching regime and never seemed to be able to get on the same page with Beckham. The good news is the Browns took a step toward shoring things up on the coaching front with the offseason hire of Stenfanski. As for Beckham, we can’t guarantee these two will be on the same page, but what we can say is that Mayfield looked his way a lot downfield. Connect on a few more of those and the sky is the limit this season. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Baker Mayfield, QB

From start to finish last season, the passer’s game, like his outward appearance during post-game press conferences, sharply eroded. Early on, he was chipper, debonair and handsome. By year’s end, he resembled every whiskey sloshed TV detective rolled into one. It was a taxing year for the QB, one which supported the classic sophomore slump narrative. 

After setting a new NFL benchmark in touchdown passes by a rookie in NFL history the fall before, Mayfield slipped into a statistical coma. He ranked QB26 or lower in adjusted completion percentage, deep-ball passer rating (71.1) and red-zone completion percentage. Equally laughable on the surface averaging 239.2 pass yards per game with 22 TDs, he and Kitchens proved to be a football trainwreck. 

As voiced repeatedly this offseason, it’s now or never for Mayfield. With a revamped coaching staff, much improved offensive line and weapons cache featuring Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and Hunt, he has zero excuses left. If he resurrects the player from ‘18, he should finish in the range of 4,000 pass yards with 25-28 TDs. — Brad Evans