Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Atlanta Falcons

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Dirty Birds.

Booms

Todd Gurley, RB

Before you fire up Twitter to tell me about Gurley’s knees, hear me out. Is he the healthiest player in NFL history? No. But last year’s lackluster production wasn’t the product of Gurley’s knees. In 2017 and 2018, Gurley put up historically good numbers. He also ran behind awesome offensive lines that generated 1.87 yards before contact in 2017 and 1.68 in 2018. Last year that number plummeted to 1.06. No running back is going to be able to produce with so little room to run.

Now, to be fair, it’s not like he’s going to be running behind a drastically better offensive line in Atlanta. Gurley’s efficiency isn’t likely to improve much this season. But the beauty to this landing spot is his utter lack of competition for touches. The Falcons have a whole lot of nothing behind Gurley, so a healthy workload is likely. And all that volume will put him on the fringe of RB1 territory as a front-end RB2. Sure, he’s about as unsexy as they come, but that also means you’re likely to get Gurley on the cheap in 2020 drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Julio Jones, WR

Next to how the leaning Tower of Pisa has improbably avoided collapse or Bears GM Ryan Pace has dodged a pink slip, Jones’ lack of double-digit TD seasons is incredibly perplexing. Equipped with all the characteristics needed to construct the perfect wide receiver — size, speed, route-running smarts, pure athleticism — he has reached 10 scores only once. It’s frustrating. It’s nuts. It’s inexplicable. Over the past six seasons, he’s landed inside the top-20 in red-zone target percentage twice (2018 and 2017). Last fall, he attracted 20.8% of those looks, which was good for WR51, one spot behind fantasy “legend” DaeSean Hamilton.

But with Austin Hooper, who accounted for 18 red-zone targets (9 end-zone) in 13 games last season, now a member of the Cleveland Browns, it’s conceivable Jones, for once, won’t be grossly underutilized near the goal line.

Featuring one of the highest floors in fantasy, the target hog (25.7 target percentage in ‘19) is set to exceed 80 receptions, 1,350 receiving yards and reach the 10-TD line this fall. If Julio meets those expectations, he’ll challenge Michael Thomas for top honors at the position, which makes him a wise buy at his 16.5 ADP (WR5). — Brad Evans

Busts

Calvin Ridley, WR

This was a tough one to choose, because Ridley really isn’t a true bust candidate. However, he is a guy who has gained a lot of buzz in fantasy circles, which has pushed up his ADP. Some have even suggested that he could break into the WR1 tier this year. That seems a bit extreme.

Let’s be clear: This isn’t a knock on Ridley. Even though his fantasy numbers took a hit last year, he actually had a more impressive season than his rookie campaign. Ridley’s aDOT jumped 3.5 yards and he saw over 300 more air yards on essentially identical targets. That isn’t the problem though. The problem is the fact that he’s playing opposite Julio Jones.

Sure, Jones is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s far from the downslope of his career. He’s coming off a 2019 season where he topped 150 targets for the fourth time. Playing opposite an all-world receiver has its advantages, but heavy volume typically isn’t one of them. While I do anticipate a slight uptick in his target volume with Austin Hooper out of the mix, Ridley isn’t likely to see enough work to push him up into that top-15. Drafting him in that range, which is an early fourth-round pick, is just too much of a stretch. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Todd Gurley, RB

The veteran rusher, diagnosed with an arthritic knee last summer, has lower extremities on par with your wrinkly grandfather, a direct descendant who once hiked across the Andes with a year’s worth of canned hams stashed in his backpack, or so he repeatedly claims.

In complete fairness, Gurley was one of the offseason’s biggest winners. Ito Smith will be involved in the offense more than most believe, but Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison pose minimal threats. Brought in on a discounted deal, the former rush king should command at least 65-75% of the Falcons opportunity share. However, repeating the 51 red-zone attempts logged with the Rams last season seems far-fetched.

Gurley can still thump the opposition on north-south runs, but his eroded lateral agility lends considerable pause. So do his advanced analytics. Last season, he ranked RB35 in yards after contact per attempt, outside the top-25 in missed tackle rate and RB39 in yards created per carry. Upheld by touchdowns — over 41% of his production came on end-zone spikes — it’s hard justifying he’ll leave investors in the black at his RB17 (34.3) ADP. The risks are immense for “Steven Jackson, the Sequel.” — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Hayden Hurst, TE

With Hooper out of the mix, there’s ample opportunity for Hurst to hit the ground running in this Falcons offense. Overshadowed by Mark Andrews in Baltimore, Hurst is a more than capable receiver. At the college level, Hurst dropped just three of 155 targets and averaged an impressive 7.0 yards after catch in his final year at South Carolina.

This isn’t a simple one-for-one swap where Hurst steps in and sees all of Hooper’s vacated targets. However, he’s a good bet to see roughly 85% of that work, which means in the range of 80-85 projected targets. That sort of volume would have him right on the edge of the top 10 tight ends in targets. While Hurst doesn’t have as much upside as someone like Andrews, that sort of volume in the fantasy friendly Falcons offense would tee him up for backend WR1 production. Hurst is a rock-solid late-round tight end target. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Hayden Hurst, TE

Overshadowed by Mark Andrews and, to a lesser extent, Nick Boyle in a crowded tight end room in Baltimore, Hurst is the main man in the A-T-L. As mentioned above, Julio is likely to stake his claim for available red-zone looks post-Hooper departure, but the Thor doppelganger is a likely 50-650-5 candidate at a minimum. Recall his burst (81st percentile) and athleticism drew comparisons to Travis Kelce out of college. It’s why the Ravens shelled out a first-round pick to acquire him in the 2018 NFL Draft.

A field stretcher (11.6 yards per catch in ‘19) who’s tough to wrangle after the catch (5.03 YAC/rec in ‘19), Hurst should build an instant between-the-hashmarks rapport with Matt Ryan. Reportedly, the pair logged numerous hours playing pitch-and-catch throughout the offseason.

With Hurst climbing in recent drafts (TE11, 110.6 ADP) the bandwagon is starting to swell, but he’s on track to deliver a handsome TE1 return in 12-team leagues. Don’t be afraid to reach. — Brad Evans