Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.
We’re targeting small same-game parlays that underestimate the correlation involved. On the season, we’re now 6-22 (+0.11 units) on the same-game parlays from this article.
Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD & 100+ rushing yards
(+330 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)
Dallas is implied for 29.25 points and sports a slate-high 5.6 projected line yards per rush. With Dak Prescott likely to return to the lineup, it will be far more difficult for Denver to take away the run-game than it was for Minnesota last week.
How poor is DK’s correlation adjustment here? The same bet on FD Sportsbook would only pay out at +276.
Nick Chubb first TD scorer & Joe Burrow 280+ passing yards
(+1500 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)
I love this bet. Cincy’s pass volume has been incredibly game-script dependent so far this season, so an early strike by Nick Chubb would mean great things for Joe Burrow’s yardage outlook. If you want to get really crazy, you could do the following:
- Burrow over 300 passing yards
- Chubb 1st TD
- Chubb 2+ TDs
- Ja’Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards
This would pay out at +4045 on FD Sportsbook! I’ll throw a half unit on it for sure.
Oddly enough, the 1-unit bet only pays out at +1015 on FD, while the half-unit bet pays out at +4000 on DK with slightly higher lines for both Burrow and Chase. Weird, it seems as though DK’s algorithm tightens as more bets are put in, but is more favorable for the 2-leg SGPs.
Mike Gesicki anytime TD & 70+ receiving yards
(+356 FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit)
Miami is implied for 8.6 more points than it averages! Mike Gesicki is seventh among NFL TEs in WOPR at .42 (.49 without DeVante Parker). Gesicki’s massive frame makes him an ideal red-zone target as well, so the fact that TDs haven’t come in bunches for him yet just means we get him at better odds for bets like these – they’re coming!
Green Bay moneyline & under 48 points
(+550 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)
As good as Aaron Rodgers is, I think the line moved too much. Green Bay has a significant advantage on the line of scrimmage offensively and just proved it can beat quality opponents with a run-heavy game plan. This is the only way GB wins this thing, however. They must find success on the ground and play at their typical tortoise-like pace. They’re just +260 to win, so the fact that adding the under juices it all the way to +550 seems like a huge under-estimate of the correlation involved here.
