Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 13

The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

Unfortunately, I have to move away from same-game parlays because I’m in Florida for the next five months, and SGPs are unavailable to me (boo!). Instead, I’ll be using FTN’s brand-spankin’ new, state-of-the-art Props Table to find simple props.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 87.5 rushing yards

(-115 Hard Rock Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Seattle has a competent run defense, so this is a bet on volume. Elijah Mitchell had 27 of 29 RB carries last week, with Deebo Samuel being the only real threat to eat into his stats. The Niners are favored by more than a field goal this week and we have them projected to run 4.9 plays above their average. That might not sound like much, but it’s hugely significant – the second-highest projected boost is just 2.4 plays.

San Francisco has the highest neutral script run rate (51%) and the second-highest run rate when leading by 8 or more (67%). Jeff Ratcliffe and his industry-best projections have Mitchell at 95.8 rushing yards, and the expected neutral/positive game script should skew the distribution in favor of the over as well.

Jamaal Williams OVER 20.5 receiving yards

(-115 Hard Rock Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Ratcliffe has Jamaal Williams projected for 28.3 receiving yards, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Williams will basically be in the D’Andre Swift role now, and get this: Swift went over this number in his first eight games this season. In his last game, he caught three balls on the opening drive before leaving the game. Williams finished that one with five receptions for 18 yards. Jermar Jefferson was not targeted.

George Kittle OVER 56.5 receiving yards

(-115 Hard Rock Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Remember the talk about increased play volume for Mitchell? Well, the same applies for Kittle – as does Samuel’s vacated 28.7% target share. I only have one concern here.

While Ratcliffe has Kittle projected for 65 receiving yards, 8.5 above the target number, this could simply be a product of Kittle’s spike games. Put more mathematically, Kittle’s mean outcome is likely higher than his median outcome – he averages 53.1 receiving yards per game but only has 53+ yards receiving in three of his eight games (the median being 45 yards).

I’m betting that the increased play volume and Samuel’s absence are enough to swing the odds in his favor here.

Hunter Renfrow longest reception OVER 21.5 yards

(-115 Hard Rock Sportsbook, 1 unit)

There are two reasons why I love this bet.

First and foremost is the DeSean Jackson effect.

As long as Darren Waller remains out, Renfrow will be the primary beneficiary of the attention that Jackson draws deep. Renfrow caught passes for 31 and 54 yards in the second half on Thanksgiving, and both of them were a direct result of a defender carrying Jackson deep.

The second is the blitzing matchup.

Derek Carr is third in YPA against the blitz and fourth in YPA differential (YPA when blitzed – overall YPA). Washington is 12th in blitzes and they’re not good at it – they allow the third-highest completion percentage and the seventh-most YPA when blitzing. We can be confident they’ll continue to blitz though, as it’s their best chance for pressure without Chase Young or Montez Sweat.