Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Today we’re going to take a look at the immediate best ball average draft position (ADP) impact of the eight key players impacted by the massive Stefon Diggs trade to Houston.
This includes Stefon Diggs (duh), C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
All data and screenshots come from FTN’s ADP Exploration tool, which is 100% free. If you want all of our best ball coverage all offseason, get an FTN Fantasy+ sub today.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs’ ADP was already trending down – ever so slightly from 25 to 24. Then he was traded and his ADP is now below 22.
I’m not sure this is right. He goes from one of the best QBs in the league, where he was the clear alpha WR1, to a team with a young stud at QB but so many more mouths to feed. It’s a downgrade at QB, or a sidegrade at best, and his situation in the target pecking order isn’t as secure as it was.
This ADP bump will be reversed soon.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Giddy up. We already loved Stroud. He was going around the Round 5-6 turn. Now he’s firmly in Round 5 and is being drafted as a top-five fantasy QB, with no sign of his ADP slowing in sight!
Stroud is clearly the big winner of this trade. All of the WRs may cannibalize each other, but that doesn’t matter for Stroud. After landing on FTN’s 2023 All-Rookie team, Stroud is set to be even better in 2024 with a stacked supporting cast.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Tank Dell, who famously shot up from the ADP range of 200+ (or undrafted) to the 170 range as a preseason darling last year (and paid off!), was being drafted in the early third round. Now he’s threatening to leave the third round altogether with Diggs on the squad.
It makes sense. Dell, while amazing, profiled more as Houston’s WR2 with Nico Collins holding the WR1 mantle. Now the question is: Is Dell really the WR3 with Diggs?
I actually think the more likely scenario, at least for 2024, is that Dell, Diggs and Collins will all have pop-off games on a regular, rotational basis. I doubt we see one player be the “WR1” week in and week out. That may be frustrating for season-long leagues, but for best ball it makes me want to buy this dip.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Everything I said for Dell can be repeated for Collins. The ADP drop makes sense. But I still think Collins is most likely to be the leading WR on this team in all categories. And he’ll still have some huge weeks. I’ll take his depressed cost.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen’s ADP is dropping hard after losing his WR1 in Diggs and his WR2 Gabe Davis earlier in March. But let’s be real: Most of Allen’s fantasy value is in his legs. The Diggs loss has led to a warranted slight decrease in ADP, but Allen is still the fantasy QB1.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
This post from Underdog’s Hayden Winks is secretly a Dalton Kincaid tweet:
Kincaid is set up for a huge year with the recent changes in Buffalo. While the Bills are likely going to draft a WR early, Kincaid is still sitting pretty. His half-round ADP jump after Diggs left makes a ton of sense.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
Samuel’s ADP dropped a full round after Diggs was traded. But he’s still being drafted in the triple-digits. His ADP will skyrocket if the Bills don’t take a WR early in the draft. But Samuel is not a WR1 and won’t replace Davis or Diggs. So even if the Bills don’t take a WR early, be wary of Samuel’s ADP.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
This ADP chart is amazing. People were actively avoiding Shakir. His ADP rose 2.5 rounds in just two weeks.
Then Diggs was traded, and his ADP chart is self-correcting hard. I expect we see this level out around the 120 range and could drop to around 100 if the Bills don’t trade a WR early.
