Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the FTN Fantasy Best Ball Guide for 2024!
Making difficult decisions is, well, difficult. And when it comes to fantasy football, there is perhaps nothing more frustrating than benching a wide receiver who goes off for 150 yards and two touchdowns, only to start them the following week and receive a goose egg.
Thank you, best ball.
In case you are new, best ball provides you with the most fun part of fantasy football — drafting. And that’s it. Your optimal lineup is automatically generated each week, which is why rather than avoid the variance, you want to embrace it. Targeting upside is paramount in this format, which means the players that have random 30-point games but little consistency are very valuable.
Let’s highlight some of those players for 2024.
‘Better in Best Ball’ Players for 2024
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Touchdown-dependent players are always better in best ball, and that is certainly the case with Edwards. Last year in Baltimore, Edwards saw 19 carries inside the 5-yard line, tied for the most in the NFL. He converted them into 12 touchdowns. While he’s in a new offense in Los Angeles, he also really isn’t. Edwards has played in Greg Roman’s offense before in Baltimore, and all signs point toward the Chargers establishing the run in 2024. Edwards should lead this team in carries and operate as the clear goal-line option but won’t offer much in the passing game. When he scores, he’ll be good. But when he doesn’t, look out. Last season, Edwards averaged just 4.6 PPR points in games he didn’t find the end zone.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
Watson is someone I don’t really want to draft in a traditional redraft format. But in best ball, I’m all for it. Injuries have forced Watson to miss 11 games over the past two seasons, but there is still serious upside here. Back in 2022, Watson ended the season on a tear, ranking as the WR9 in fantasy in Weeks 10-18, scoring eight touchdowns during that span. He opened the 2023 season on the shelf but started to get things going in Week 11, scoring four touchdowns from Week 11 to Week 13. Unfortunately, he hurt his hamstring and didn’t play again the rest of the way. But clearly, when Watson plays, he scores touchdowns, and that is where upside comes from.
I’ll also add Doubs to this list for a similar reason. Rookie Jayden Reed ascended as this team’s WR1, seeing all of the schemed touches in this offense. But Doubs still had a huge role and if Watson continues to struggle to stay on the field, he’ll likely lead this team in end zone looks again. Last year, Doubs saw 14 end zone targets, tied for the 10th-most in football. He saw nearly 25% of Green Bay’s targets inside the 10-yard line. However, in games he didn’t find the end zone, he didn’t provide much, averaging just 6.8 fantasy points per game in those contests. If Watson stays healthy, he’ll lead an ascending Green Bay offense in end zone targets. If not, it’ll likely be Doubs.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
Staying in the NFC North, it doesn’t look like Williams is going to live up to the hype and emerge as a great fantasy wide receiver so far. But that doesn’t mean he lacks upside. Williams made his season debut in Week 5 last year — from then on, he only ran a route on about 57% of dropbacks, while sporting a 10% target share. Not ideal. And playing alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, a large target share isn’t going to happen. However, Josh Reynolds is gone, which means more routes should be on the table for Williams, a player who makes plays down the field. His 16.0-yard aDOT ranked 10th among qualified wide receivers, while he saw 38% of the play-action targets. When the Lions call play-action and take a shot down the field, it is going toward Williams, while Jared Goff posted a 26.2% play-action dropback rate, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt off the play type. This will be Williams’ first offseason without a suspension or injury, and Year 3 is often when wide receivers break out.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
There’s no doubt about it: Johnston’s rookie campaign was one to forget. He struggled with drops, and even when both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were sidelined, Williams still couldn’t take strides, averaging just 28.9 yards and 6.2 PPR points per game. Not a ton of upside, right? So why recommend him? Well, for starters, Allen, Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett are all gone, which means about 58% of their targets from 2023 are gone. Entering 2024, Johnston’s role might not change a ton in terms of his routes, but that’s OK for best ball. According to FTN Data, go routes made up 22.4% of Johnston’s targets (15-of-67). I’d imagine we see more than 67 targets from Johnston in Year 2, but I also think a large portion of his targets will come deep down the field. I love drafting Johnston as WR67 in best ball formats.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle is undoubtedly one of the best tight ends in the league. And if he were on a different team, he might lead the position in receiving and fantasy points every year. But in San Francisco’s crowded offense that often asks Kittle to run-block, consistency has actually been a bit of an issue. But when Kittle has a really good week, it is a really good week. This past season, Kittle posted seven games as a top-three fantasy tight end, averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game in those contests. However, he also finished as TE25 or worse six times, averaging less than five fantasy points per game. Playing in an offense alongside Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel has led to some disappearing acts from Kittle in fantasy, despite how impactful he is on a play-by-play basis for the 49ers. Since 2022, Kittle has played 26 games where Aiyuk and Samuel have logged at least 30 snaps. In those games, Kittle is averaging just 4.9 targets, 3.6 receptions and 11.3 PPR points per game.
