Atlanta Falcons DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier garnered double-digit carries in back-to-back weeks for the first time all season after last week's 11-carry performance. Unfortunately for fantasy, the 11 carries came with just 22 scoreless yards of production, although he did manage to snag one pass for nine yards. With Michael Penix Jr. making only his second career start in Week 17 and the Commanders allowing the second-most fantasy points to RBs on the season, Allgeier looks primed for another double-digit effort, even if some comes simply from giving Bijan Robinson a breather. The 24-year-old does receive some goal-line work, but has just three TDs in 15 games, so without big yardage totals the BYU product figures to be nothing more than an RB4 or low-end Flex play with slight upside were he to find paydirt.

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught a single pass last week, the fifth time in the last seven games in which he's caught just one pass or fewer. Bijan Robinson, whose involvement in the passing attack has diminished recently, has 27 targets over the last seven games compared to Pitts' 24. As the fifth option in an offense that has a quarterback making only his second career start in Michael Penix Jr., Pitts makes for quite the gamble in Week 17 against a Commanders defense that has been fairly good at limiting production to TEs, not having allowed any single tight end to surpass more than 66 receiving yards on the year. The former first-round draft pick has theoretical upside, but hits his floor more often than not, so should not be trusted at this critical time of the fantasy season. The 6-foot-6 pass catcher is a low-end TE2 for Sunday's matchup in Washington, D.C.

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III caught three of four targets in Michael Penix Jr.'s first career start last week, but totaled only 19 yards on those receptions. The 28-year-old has had a pretty reliable target share in this offense all season, working as the third option behind receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney but ahead of tight end Kyle Pitts. While the yardage totals won't typically amount to much and he's scored only once all season, the sixth-year pro's usage can be somewhat useful in PPR formats. With Penix Jr. making only his second career start this Sunday, McCloud's short 6.08 aDOT could again come in handy if the young QB is looking for a safety valve. Unless desperate, however, fantasy managers vying for championships shouldn't be relying on the Clemson product as he projects as a WR5/6 on Sunday.

After falling flat with a zero-catch performance in Week 15, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney bounced back nicely last week with a five-catch effort on six targets, racking up 82 yards in the process. It was the seventh time this season that the 27-year-old caught at least five passes in a game and he showed some nice rapport with Michael Penix Jr. in his first start under center. Despite those results, it may be tougher sledding against the Commanders in Week 17 that has been better against the pass in recent weeks, and with a shot at the playoffs on the line for the Falcons, expect them to deploy a more conservative approach via the ground attack for as long they can in this one. As such, Mooney projects as a low-end WR3 in this one with perhaps some slight upside in PPR leagues, but he also carries some downside risk with the inexperience at QB.

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson handled 23-plus touches last week for the fifth time in the last six contests while adding his fifth and sixth scores during that timeframe as well. Now with over 1500 total yards and 11 touchdowns, the 22-year-old is a top-five fantasy running back on the year and takes on a Commanders rush defense that has yielded the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. With rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. making just his second career start against a pass defense that has been much more stout over the past four weeks, look for the Falcons to lean heavily on the run game again in Week 17. While the former first-round draft pick has seen his involvement in the passing attack nearly dry up, having not caught more than two passes or gained more than 10 receiving yards in any of the last three games, he remains a top option at running back. View the talented back as a high-end RB1 in Week 17.