Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After landing in Washington via the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Antonio Gibson exploded onto the fantasy football scene last year. The raw talent for a player with a 99th percentile speed score was never the question. Projecting a player’s rookie season is difficult enough, but when said player amasses a total of 77 collegiate touches, it’s nearly impossible.
Entering his sophomore season in the NFL, the question is now can he reproduce or build on the magic we saw in year one. Let’s dive into Gibson’s fantasy football outlook in 2021 and whether we are investing in his current ADP.
Antonio Gibson Fantasy Football Superstar
Before Gibson missed two games with a toe sprain late in the season, he was a locked-in RB1. In Weeks 1-12, he was the RB10 in fantasy points per game (16.5, PPR). Despite a less than ideal situation running behind a mediocre offensive line that ranked 16th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards and 28th in open-field yards, Gibson’s talent could not be contained. In his first 12 games, he was a tackle-breaking machine and human highlight reel, ranking tenth in missed tackles forced (30) and ninth in 15-yard runs (7).
He accomplished all of this while ranking 14th in rushing attempts (139) over that span. Learning the position on the fly and even with J.D. McKissic involved, he still ran routes on 36.0% of dropbacks and saw a 10% target share before the injury. With a new quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, under center and more skill players in house (Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown), can we buy into him building upon his rookie season?
Antonio Gibson 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook
The short answer is an unequivocal yes. Unlike last year, entering the 2021 season, Gibson is the unquestioned early-down workhorse and primary rusher in the red zone. In Weeks 2-12, Gibson gobbled up 65.7% of the running back red zone totes. While his volume was solid in 2020, it still has room to grow both on the ground and through the air.
Washington logged the fourth-most plays in negative gamescripts last year, which hurt Gibson. In those negative scripts, Scott Turner directed an offense that was fifth in passing rate (72%). Washington added Bobby McCain, shutdown corner William Jackson and first-round linebacker Jamin Davis to a defense that ranked third in total DVOA last season. If the defense takes another step forward, Gibson's rushing volume could shoot through the roof. In 2020, Washington ranked 23rd in positive gamescript play volume. When they were ahead by more than a touchdown, Turner called rushing plays at the second-highest rate (63%). If their pace maintains Gibson's rookie year, even if they rise to 16th in positive plays at that high rushing rate, that would add roughly 60 more rushing attempts on the offense's plate.
Gibson has proven to be an efficient enough receiver at every stop that his ceiling is Washington's version of Christian McCaffrey. Last season among 57 running backs with 15 or more targets, he ranked 14th in yards per route run (1.48). He also hauled in everything in sight with an 81.8% catch rate. McKissic's involvement likely cap's Gibson's ceiling, but he has the talent to supplant him as the primary passing-down back.
Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Antonio Gibson
Gibson has strangely seen his ADP fall since April. Over the last month in FFPC leagues, Gibson has dipped from the RB12 (17th overall) to RB15 (22nd overall). Even at his previous draft position, Gibson remains a major BUY who could be a league winner if he hits his ultimate ceiling.
