MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
It seems every year we get a big head-scratcher in NFL free agency, and we now have the leader in the clubhouse for 2022 after Allen Robinson signed with the Los Angeles Rams Thursday. The deal is a reported three-year pact worth $46.5 million. At $15.5 million per year, that’s well south of the $18 million annually Christian Kirk commanded earlier in the week.
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While he’s only entering his age-29 season, Robinson already has eight professional seasons under his belt. Of course, one of those years was essentially over before it started, as Robinson tore his ACL just a few snaps into the 2017 season. Despite coming off that devastating injury, Robinson landed with the Bears in 2018 and has spent the past four seasons in Chicago.
Sandwiched in between two disappointing seasons to start and end his time with the Bears, Robinson had two extremely productive years in 2019 and 2020. Over that span he was one of the league’s most productive wideouts, catching a combined 200 balls on 305 targets and finishing as a top-10 fantasy wideout both years. That’s no small feat given the extremely lackluster quarterback play he had to endure.
That won’t be an issue in Los Angeles, as Robinson will now get to play with the best quarterback of his career in Matthew Stafford. But this is the NFL and things can never just be easy. Robinson is joining a Rams depth chart that has a clear alpha in the target pecking order. Cooper Kupp is coming off a historically good season, and he figures to continue to dominate the team target shares. The Rams also figure to have Robert Woods back in the mix along with ascending third-year man Van Jefferson.
Perhaps this move is an indication that Woods is behind schedule in his recovery from the torn ACL he suffered back in November. However, it’s also very possible Robinson is simply being viewed as an upgrade over Jefferson. While this contract doesn’t rest the market, it very clearly starter money for Robinson. Likewise, Robinson’s signing makes it more difficult to envision Odell Beckham back with the team in 2022, though that’s not assured yet. Given how recent Beckham’s ACL injury occurred, it’s fair to not expect him on the field again until 2023.
In a scenario where Robinson lines up along with Kupp and Woods, he’d be the early favorite as the second target. Woods simply didn’t show much chemistry with Stafford last season and averaged just five targets per game. As for Kupp, his synergy with Stafford was off the charts. Of course, expecting a nearly 32% target share again is a bit too optimistic. If Kupp sees roughly 28% and Woods remains at around 14%, it’s more than reasonable for Robinson to see an 18-20% share. That’s roughly 108-120 targets if Stafford hits 600 pass attempts again this upcoming season.
That’s far from the 150-plus he saw at the peak of his time with the Bears, but it’s nothing to bat an eyelash at either. That sort of volume would place Robinson squarely in the WR3 conversation with plenty of touchdown upside thanks to Stafford’s gunslinger mentality. While this is far from the optimal landing spot for Robinson, he is positioned well to offer some late-career fantasy value in one of the league’s most potent offenses.
