Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The weeks and months that follow the NFL draft before NFL camps kickoff is prime trading season in dynasty. The layover between these two points in time can change perception in some ways on a player. Coach speak can quell excitement, and occasionally time has a way of stifling the hype.
Before player’s lace the cleats back up and begin preparation for the season, let’s walk through some players that should be energetically sought after in dynasty leagues. Every player’s average draft position (ADP) referenced is per Dynastyleaguefootball.com’s May rookie draft ADP.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Dynasty Rookie ADP: 1.05
C'mon, did you think this article was not going to mention Cam Akers? Not a chance. Akers is parachuting into a top-10 NFL offense. While that might sound hyperbolic on paper, it's not. The Rams, despite all of their struggles last season, were among the top 10 in points per game (10th), yards per game (7th) and red zone scoring attempts per game (5th).
Rookie runners with opportunities like Akers, even at somewhat of a premium, are still worth aggressively trading for in dynasty. Akers can seize substantial passing catching work and touchdown equity in McVay's scheme. Last year was an outlier for McVay and running back usage. Last year, the Rams ranked 32nd in target share allotted to the running back positions – 10% (61 targets). In McVay's previous five years as a coach, his runners saw between a 15.2-19.8% target share (90-104 targets). In McVay's last six years in the NFL, his rushing attack has never finished outside the top 12 in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Akers' upside is immense, and once the genie is out of the bottle, good luck luring him away from your league mate.
Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Dynasty Rookie ADP: 1.08
Forget for a second that Jalen Reagor was a first-round pick with a 95th percentile breakout age and 73rd percentile college dominator. Reagor could walk into 2021 as the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver on the depth chart. Reagor is flanked by a host of soon to be 30-year-old and above wide receivers with bloated contracts. The Eagles will enter 2021 last in the NFL in salary cap space. DeSean Jackson can be cut to save 5.4 million against the cap. Marquise Goodwin can be let go with zero dead cap while saving the team 5.8 million. The oft-injured Alshon Jeffery can be ejected as well, providing the team with 7.9 million dollars of relief. Will all of these players be let go? Probably not all, but the fact remains this receiving depth chart is ancient around Reagor.
The volume is there for the taking this year. The Eagles finished first in plays per game in 2020. Carson Wentz matched a career-high in pass attempts per game – 37.9 – while surrounded by practice squad players by season’s end. Right now could be the low point for Reagor’s value over the next year with a supposedly crowded receiving room around him. None of the veteran wideouts previously mentioned are perfect pictures of health. If they start dropping like flies again during the 2020 calendar year, Reagor’s already substantial value is going to soar.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Dynasty Rookie ADP: 2.02
Tee Higgins, for all the cold water tossed on his testing metrics, left Clemson with an otherwise impressive resume. Over the last two collegiate seasons, Higgins piled up 2,103 receiving yards and 25 receiving touchdowns while also flashing impressive efficiency. Despite averaging 17.8 yards per reception, Higgins logged a 71.5% catch rate. The Bengals snatched him up early with the first pick of the second round, tethering him to their new franchise quarterback as the alpha heir in waiting.
Higgins' path to stardom becomes crystal clear in 2021. A.J. Green is shrouded in contract and health uncertainty and not a sure thing to return. Auden Tate and John Ross are both set to become free agents in 2021. Higgins could team with Tyler Boyd as the core of this Cincinnati passing attack for the next three years as Joe Burrow's twin pillars.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington
Dynasty Rookie ADP: 3.01
Antonio Gibson is electricity in a bottle. With the aid of his 99th percentile speed, Gibson has proven he can break big plays at will. Last year Gibson, among 665 collegiate runners with 20 or rushing attempts, was second in collegiate yards per carry with 11.2. Gibson’s haymaker is his pass-catching prowess. Among all collegiate players with 20 or more receptions last season, Gibson was 21st in yards per reception with 19.2. New offensive coordinator (OC) Scott Turner had a hand in Christian McCaffrey’s large target share as Carolina’s OC last year. The Panthers overall were sixth in the NFL in target share to running backs with 25.6%.
Gibson could rise to the top of Washington’s running back pile quickly. Derrius Guice has never proven durable over his short pro career. Guice is also a holdover from the previous regime and a free agent in 2022. Adrian Peterson, despite his Highlander-like youth, is 35 years old and a free agent in 2021. Gibson can be eased in via the screen game and other manufactured touches. With a player that is explosive as he is raw, the upside and opportunity are enormous.
Darrynton Evans, RB, Tennessee Titans
Dynasty Rookie ADP: 3.01
When talent meets an easy path to opportunity, the time to invest is yesterday. Darrynton Evans is the only back of real consequence behind Derrick Henry. Much like his mountainous backfield mate, Evans has a knack for running tough and breaking big runs. Last year, Evans was top 30 in yards after contact, breakaway run rate and runs of 15 or more yards in college. In 2019, Evans proved he can also be a productive workhorse with his 276 touches, 1678 total yards, and 23 total touchdowns.
With Evans’ 82nd percentile and above speed and burst scores even on limited volume, he is a home run threat behind Tennessee’s top-five offensive line. Considering his previous third-round ADP in rookie drafts, the cost sunk by other fantasy gamers wasn’t substantial even a slight overpay in a trade can be worthwhile considering his upside. Evans is desperation flex viable from the outset with a tremendous chance to see his value skyrocket should the dominoes fall in his favor. Henry wearing down or walking in free agency would catapult Evans up the dynasty rankings.
