Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football draft strategy doesn’t need to be complex. The goal on draft day is simple: to outdraft your opponents and put together the best team possible. While there’s certainly a lot to think about in a fantasy draft, there are a few key things to keep in mind as we head into the heart of fantasy football draft season. Here are five tips to help you dominate your 2023 fantasy football drafts.
Of course, don’t forget that you can check out my fantasy football rankings. If you want more detailed rankings for all fantasy formats, you can access our rankings tool and fantasy football projections as part of our Fantasy+ subscription. Along with rankings and projections, you’ll also get access to our Fantasy Football Game Plan Draft Guide, our fantasy football draft cheat sheets, and much more. Promo Code “RATPACK” will get you 20% off on any purchase.
1. Keep It Simple on Draft Day
A lot of folks show up to their drafts with binders of material or have multiple spreadsheets and tabs open on their laptops. Simply put, this is information overload, and you really don’t need it all to make your picks. Sure, all this info is important right now as you prep for your drafts, but more inputs on draft day can lead you to paralysis from over analysis.
Put the work in beforehand, but keep it as streamlined as possible on draft day. I highly recommend checking out my 2024 fantasy football draft boards, which include both my traditional format and an improved draft board 2.0. You can find all of the draft boards in our fantasy football draft cheat sheets. Each board is just one sheet of paper that gives you every piece of information you need to make the best decision possible on each one of your picks. You won’t need to flip through pages or go back and forth between apps in your laptop. That means you’re less likely to panic pick, and you’ll have more time to focus on exploiting your opponents’ mistakes on draft day.
2. Be Flexible Early in Drafts
One of the most common questions I get at this time of year goes something like this: “Should I draft a running back in the first round and a wideout in the second?” The idea here is that the drafter is locking themselves into a position in a specific round. And hey, I get the thought process. You’re taking a position-based approach to building your roster. While this logic certainly comes into play later in your drafts, this method really limits what you can do in the early rounds.
Simply put, we don’t want to go after specific positions in particular rounds. Rather, the goal is to draft the best possible players. Sure, that’s somewhat of a “duh” statement, but many fantasy drafters overlook this objective and instead lock themselves into specific positions. However, each draft presents its own set of opportunities. Mock draft as much as you want, but you’re not going to be able to precisely predict what plays out on your actual draft day.
Remember that while you are drafting your team, you’re also drafting against your opponents in your league. This is another example of stating the obvious that so often gets overlooked by drafters. The object isn’t just to win your league, it’s to win every phase of the game, including the draft. So, if your opponent makes a mistake and lets value slip down the board, make them pay for it. Of course, you won’t always be able to do so if you lock yourself into positions early in the draft. Instead, opt for a more flexible approach where your goal is to attack the early rounds and select the top players on your board regardless of position.
3. Punt Your RB2 Spot
Given how drafts are unfolding, there’s a good chance you’ll end up with a running back in the first two rounds. However, the value falls off very quickly at the position, and the top-end players have essentially dried up by the time we get into the third round of drafts. Add to that the fact that running backs come with more injury volatility than wide receivers and we have plenty of reason to not invest heavily in the position with our most valuable draft picks. Instead, wait until we get into the middle rounds before you address your second running back spot. These picks aren’t as valuable, so the cost to your roster isn’t as steep if the player gets hurt or busts.
Of course, this does mean that you could be drafting outside of your comfort zone with just one running back through the first five rounds. It certainly isn’t a conventional approach, but your team will end up being absolutely loaded at wideout. This approach is what I refer to as Punt RB2, but it can go by other names. Some will call it Hero RB, while others use Anchor RB. Regardless of what you call it, the strategy remains the same. We’re only drafting one running back early, and then we’re loading up on wide receivers and we’re often grabbing a tight end before we go back to running back. If you’d like more details on how to execute this strategy, I break it down for you in the Fantasy Football Game Plan Draft Guide.
4. Prioritize Tight End, But Don’t Go Overboard
Sam LaPorta is very good. The Lions tight end is coming off a massive rookie season and is currently the de facto No. 1 tight end on many fantasy football draft boards. But if you want him this year, you’ll need to draft him in the late second round in 1QB leagues. While that certainly isn’t an outrageous price tag for him, it puts you into a potential conundrum from a roster construction standpoint. Likewise, you’re probably also going to see Travis Kelce come off the board in the same range and Trey McBride going shortly thereafter.
There’s no denying the fantasy prowess of elite tight ends, but as LaPorta showed us last year, new tight ends make the leap into elite territory every year. In other words, you didn’t have to spend a premium pick on him. Instead, you were able to use your early picks to load up at wideout and running back.
To be fair, waiting that long always comes with volatility this year given the overall depth at the position. However, there’s a very interesting wheelhouse of value between the fifth and seventh rounds. In this phase of your drafts, you’re likely to see Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts come off the board. Any one of these guys could finish as a top-three guy, but you won’t have to pay a top-three price for them.
5. Wait Until the End Of Your Draft to Draft a Quarterback
Seriously. Even in your home leagues where quarterbacks come off the board early, you can wait. You don’t need Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts to win your leagues this year, and the reason is relatively simple. The annual difference between the top fantasy quarterbacks and the best player you can get off waivers is much slimmer than what you’ll find at running back or wide receiver.
Better yet, in today’s pass-happy NFL, there are legitimately 20-plus quarterbacks who can put up starter-caliber fantasy production. That means even if most of the teams in your league draft backups early, you’ll still be likely to land a safe option like Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers in the end of your draft. You also then could shoot for massive upside with someone like Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert or Caleb Williams. That safe-and-upside approach won’t cost you much in terms of draft capital but does give you the chance to hit a home run with your upside option. And if you swing and miss, you at least have your safe option to tide you over while you work waivers to try and land this year’s breakout option.
Of course, waiting until the late rounds just isn’t an option for those in 2QB and superflex leagues. However, you don’t have to force the issue at quarterback here either. That depth I just discussed still applies. Instead of drafting a quarterback in the first round, you can get better value if you wait until at least 12 quarterbacks are drafted before you address the position. After the 12th is drafted, spring into action and draft two quarterbacks in back-to-back rounds. It’s wise to take two higher-floor options since these guys will be your weekly starters. For your third quarterback, grab an upside option after 24 have been drafted. In either a 1QB or a superflex/2QB format, you’ll get the best bang for your buck by waiting at the position. For more on this approach and a complete breakdown of all my draft strategies, be sure to check out the Fantasy Football Game Plan Draft Guide.
