Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This year’s free agency period felt particularly impactful from a fantasy football perspective — so let’s take a look at four free agency ADP fallers in these early best ball drafts.
This piece will focus on the actual free agents — not other players impacted by free agency moves or other news. For example: Darren Waller is the biggest ADP faller since the start of March, but we’re not highlighting him here.
We’re looking at each player’s ADP March 1 and comparing it to his ADP March 15.
And be sure to check out our free ADP exploration tool so you can spot ADP trends before the rest of the crowd. Want to play best ball on Underdog? Join with this link and promo code FTN for a deposit match up to $100.
Free Agency Losers Based on ADP Data
I’ll start by pointing out something very evident in the data: Everyone is excited about free agent movers. It’s a bullish market.
As a result, finding “losers” — or ADP fallers — was not as easy as I was expecting. The players that fell in value slipped only a few spots.
The most notable ADP fallers were players impacted by others joining or leaving their team — like Jordan Addison falling because Kirk Cousins left. But when looking at the actual players that are moving around, drafted are mostly excited across the board.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (for now?)
Tee Higgins has seen his ADP slightly drop (+2.2 spots) since the start of March. He was tagged by the Bengals but then requested a trade.
Higgins is an interesting one because he could be the No. 1 WR on most teams in the league. But he also wouldn’t be with Joe Burrow on most teams in the league. Drafters seem only slightly off-put by the apparent discord.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley was inefficient in Jacksonville, but he did have some high-ceiling games. Matt Harmon did a great job in this video breaking down where he thinks the struggles came from:
Drafters don’t appear bullish on Ridley to the Titans, though. Unlike most other free agent movers, Ridley’s ADP hasn’t shot up. It’s actually gone slightly down (+1.6).
That’s not a big fall, but he does stand out as an outlier in that there’s no hype surrounding his new environment. (The obvious reason being that he just downgraded in the QB department in a major way.)
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen’s ADP started to fall (slightly) immediately after he went from LA to Chicago. But, again, this is really minor movement. Allen’s ADP has only fallen by one draft spot.
If this were any other situation, calling an ADP change of +1 wouldn’t even constitute “falling.” But because Allen switched teams, the lack of a “hype bump” in ADP does stand out. Drafters just see it as a wholly lateral move, or maybe a slight downgrade now that he has to play with a new, likely worse in 2024, QB.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders
Austin Ekeler’s ADP was already falling prior to free agency, going from 76 to 82 from Feb. 23 to March 7. But then it fell from 82 to 86 after he signed with the Washington Commanders. There’s a decent chance Ekeler is just cooked now, but there isn’t a terrible landing spot.
Brian Robinson was not heavily used near the end zone last year (just 13 carries inside the 10 last year — Dameon Pierce had more). So there’s a chance Ekeler remains a serious TD threat even in a committee approach.
