Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
Over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
The preseason buzz was palpable for Kendre Miller last summer, with hopes that the former TCU Horned Frog could take advantage of Alvin Kamara’s early-season suspension to carve out a significant role in the Saints backfield. Unfortunately for Miller, he missed two of the three games due to a hamstring injury, something that would become an unfortunate trend in his young NFL career.
What Went Wrong
You can’t earn a role in the offense if you’re not on the field. Miller played in just eight games, missing two of the three Kamara was out and Weeks 10-17 due to a lingering ankle injury. Per FTN’s Snap Count data, he failed to play 40% of snaps in a single game. Miller saw double-digit rushing attempts twice and ran for over 50 yards just once. His adequate Week 18 performance of 5.5 yards per carry wasn’t enough to lift his shoddy season average over four.
What Went Right
Miller turned in the best game of his young career in the final week of the season. With Kamara inactive due to an ankle sprain, Miller turned 13 carries into 73 yards and his first and only touchdown. He caught one pass on one target for a whopping six yards. And….that’s about it.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Not great Bob.
After an injury-plagued rookie season, Miller pulls a hammy on day one of training camp. There is a very real scenario in which Miller isn’t a member of the Saints come Week 1. Rather than battling with (national treasure) Jamaal Williams to back up Kamara, he’s likely battling Jordan Mims for a roster spot. But to do that, he’ll have to make it back on the field first.
Dynasty Outlook
Back in May, I had Miller as a buy in my “Dynasty Moves to Make” series. Naturally, I’m changing my stance on that, right? Well… I’m tweaking it. I don’t think he has a future on the Saints; the coaching staff is ready to wash their hands of him. I wouldn’t trade a second-round pick for Miller like I would have earlier this offseason. But a third-rounder would be worth the gamble if he finds himself in a better situation on a new team, which it sounds like he desperately needs.
