Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
When De’Von Achane fell to the Dolphins in the third round of the draft, everyone knew it was an excellent scheme fit. Miami runs a Shanahan-inspired wide zone scheme that stretches the field horizontally with speedy backs to create space for its receivers to rack up yards after the catch. And Achane ran a 4.32-second 40 time that was the fastest in his class and fourth fastest for a running back in combine history. But Achane still sprinted past even the optimistic expectations for his rookie season. He came within 3 yards of 1,000 from scrimmage and scored 11 touchdowns in just 11 games between shoulder and knee sprains. And he lapped the field at his position with 7.8 yards per attempt. No other back beat 6.0 yards per attempt with 100 or more carries.
What Went Wrong
Achane can blame injuries for his falling short of an historic rookie season. He sprained his shoulder in Week 2 of the preseason and subsequently missed Week 1 and saw just two touches in Week 2. And he sprained his MCL in Week 5 and played just three snaps in his next seven weeks.
When he played, Achane mostly excelled. But if you wanted to pick nits, you could with his schedule. Achane exploded for 398 total yards and five touchdowns in favorable matchups against the Broncos and Giants in Weeks 3 and 5. And he suffered his two inefficient rushing performances against the Jets and Cowboys, both top five defenses by overall DVOA.
What Went Right
Achane broke away for 67- and 76-yard touchdown runs in Week 3 and 5 and quickly established himself as the new king of explosive runs. He racked up 13 explosive carries of 15 or more yards on just 103 total carries for the season. And he produced 54.3% of his yards on explosive carries, dramatically ahead of Breece Hall in second place at 40.4%.
Achane was the second Dolphins back behind Raheem Mostert. But when healthy, he fulfilled the full complement of running back responsibilities, running between the tackles with patience and balance.
And while Mostert may have lapped him with 47 versus 23 red zone carries for the season, Achane barely trailed him with 25 versus 19 red zone carries in the seven healthy games they played together.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Achane saw plenty of Jamaal Charles draft comps, and the public is clearly convinced with their top 10 running back ADP. I’m open to the idea that Achane has that once-in-a-generation athleticism. But I think it’s important to note that the other running backs that bested a 45% explosive yardage rate in the last decade crashed back to earth the following season, even the perceived special ones like Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley.
| Explosive% Regression, Running Backs, 2014-23 | ||||||
| Player | Season 1 | Season 2 | Explosive% 1 | Explosive% 2 | Diff | |
| Nick Chubb | 2018 | 2019 | 46.6% | 38.4% | -8.2% | |
| Tevin Coleman | 2018 | 2019 | 48.5% | 36.2% | -12.3% | |
| Kenneth Walker | 2022 | 2023 | 45.8% | 27.8% | -18.0% | |
| Kenyan Drake | 2017 | 2018 | 47.7% | 28.6% | -19.1% | |
| Joe Mixon | 2018 | 2019 | 46.1% | 26.9% | -19.2% | |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2016 | 2017 | 47.9% | 27.8% | -20.1% | |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 2019 | 54.0% | 33.0% | -21.0% | |
| Todd Gurley | 2015 | 2016 | 46.0% | 14.6% | -31.4% | |
| Minimum 100 attempts in both seasons | ||||||
With weighted averages, that group declined 0.70 yards per attempt to a pedestrian 4.18 yards per attempt in Year 2. Achane should beat that average with his speed and scheme. But he could reasonably jump from 130 to 200 touches, gain a modest 100 to 200 extra yards, and score fewer touchdowns this season.
Feel free to reach a bit for a potential league-winner. But whatever your efficiency expectations, do not expect Achane to see 250 or more touches. The sophomore back is very small for the position at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds. And the Dolphins have made a clear play for depth with their preferred smaller and speedier backfield. In addition to their 21-touchdown-scoring incumbent starter Mostert, the team added another sub-4.4 back in rookie Jaylen Wright. And all three should play regularly in 2024.
Dynasty Outlook
Achane may never see a traditional RB1 workload at his size. But he is a definitive top-10 dynasty asset at his position. The sophomore back won’t turn 23 until the middle of this season. He’s almost three full years younger than Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne, the “established” young running back stars. And his workload ceiling could work to his benefit if it reduces the hits he takes each season and extends his prime.
With his standout breakaway skills, Achane may see his most value in DFS and best ball where peak weeks beat consistency. But Achane also teased a fuller skill set than most backs with his wheels, and I would bet on that in any format, if not quite to the extreme extent of his bullish ADP.
