Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
Over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman emerged as a promising college prospect and tallied a 1,000-yard receiving season in 2021, though injuries hindered his final year. Standing at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he was noted for his rare combination of size, strong hands and physical play. That made him a formidable perimeter threat. Despite an average NFL combine performance – clocking a 4.54-second 40-yard dash, a 37-inch vertical and a 10-foot, eight-inch mark in the broad jump – Tillman’s draft stock fluctuated. Ultimately, he fell into the third round where the Browns secured him at pick 74.
Cleveland wasn’t an ideal landing spot for fantasy purposes, with a crowded depth chart and limited opportunities for the passing game. On the flip side, all the receivers outside Amari Cooper had yet to prove any consistency. Pairing this with a new offensive outlook, Tillman’s projected value was somewhat salvaged, and many had him as a potential sleeper, but most had written him off in redraft formats.
What Went Wrong
The most prominent issue for Tillman as a rookie was his lack of opportunities, which started after not earning a significant role in training camp. This led to him not receiving a target until Week 4 of the season. After the Week 5 bye, he missed three consecutive games due to a hip injury and coaching decisions. Although he returned to the lineup later on, he continued to see limited opportunities – just 41 targets between Weeks 9 and 18.
This lack of usage was compounded by a poor catch rate. He hauled in fewer than 50% of his targets and totaled just 224 yards without finding the end zone. Digging deeper, his yards per route run was a dismal 0.63 and ranked fifth-worst among rookie wide receivers. In total, he accumulated a mere 33.7 half-PPR points and finished as WR119.
What Went Right
Minimal.
Tillman struggled with limited usage and production when targeted, which made it difficult to find any positives. However, he averaged over 10 yards per reception, a modest achievement, but not a reliable predictive indicator. It’s noteworthy that he saw a significant snap share down the stretch and played 79.4% of the snaps from Week 9 onwards. He also showed a willingness to get down and dirty in the blocking game, which will go a long way in this Browns offense.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Predicting Tillman’s 2024 is somewhat uncertain but not entirely bleak. The Browns’ recent additions of Jerry Jeudy and his immediate contract extension are less than favorable signs for Tillman. However, it’s worth noting that Cleveland ranked fourth in the league last year with an average of 37.2 pass attempts per game. These targets primarily went to David Njoku and Amari Cooper, and this was with Joe Flacco at quarterback, not Deshaun Watson.
If Watson distributes the ball more evenly in 2024, there could be an opportunity for Tillman to establish a fantasy-relevant role. To achieve this, he’ll need to distinguish himself from fourth-year pro Elijah Moore and other receivers below Jeudy and Cooper during training camp. His size gives him an advantage here, along with his proven ability to play the perimeter, somewhere Moore and Jeudy can play, but don’t excel. If he can become a consistent player, we could see him produce very viable fantasy numbers, potentially even reaching the top 36.
Dynasty Outlook
While Tillman’s 2024 outlook appears bleak in the short term, his long-term prospects aren’t much rosier. Upon being drafted, there was hope he could emerge as the second receiver in the passing game and eventually succeed Cooper on the perimeter. This scenario remains plausible, especially since Cooper is entering the season at 30 years old and in the final year of his contract. For Tillman to step into Cooper’s role post-departure, he must demonstrate substantial growth this season – a potential outcome he is capable of achieving.
Yes, Jeudy being extended plays a huge role here as well, but with Nick Chubb coming off a significant knee injury and entering his age-29 season, this shift to a pass-heavy attack we saw in 2023 is likely the future for this Watson-led Browns offense. That should create plenty of opportunities to produce for all the pass-catchers.
