Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NFL win totals 2024 are out, and the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens are the favorites to lead the league in the regular season. The Panthers and Patriots are the betting favorites to finish dead last.
This article will run through all NFL win totals for the 2024 season and give you the early edge for the best bets.
(All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 NFL Win Totals
| Team | Win Total | Over | Under |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.5 | 110 | -130 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | 110 | -135 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | -145 | 120 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.5 | -125 | 105 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | -135 | 115 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | -120 | 100 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | 115 | -135 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 100 | -120 |
| Denver Broncos | 5.5 | -140 | 115 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | 130 | -155 |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | 110 | -135 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | -125 | 105 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | -135 | 115 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 | -160 | 130 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Miami Dolphins | 10.5 | 125 | -145 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | -135 | 110 |
| New England Patriots | 4.5 | -115 | -105 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | -120 | 100 |
| New York Giants | 6.5 | 115 | -135 |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | 125 | -150 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | 110 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | -150 | 120 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | 125 | -150 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | 125 | -150 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 | 115 | -140 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 125 | -145 |
Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins in 2024
11.5 (-110)
After five consecutive seasons of 12 or more wins, the Chiefs “stumbled” to an 11-6 record in 2023 en route to a second consecutive Super Bowl title. This play is based on the separation between Kansas City and the rest of their AFC West rivals. The Chargers (8.5), Broncos (5.5) and Raiders (6.5) are all projected for substantially fewer wins.
Dallas Cowboys Over 10.5 Wins in 2024
10.5 (+100)
The regular season is rarely a problem for the Cowboys, who have posted three straight years of 12 wins. Washington has a brand-new coaching staff and projected rookie quarterback, the Giants have major offensive questions and the Eagles could be regressing back to the mean after a disappointing season. The Cowboys won the NFC East with a non-existent running game.
San Francisco 49ers Under 11.5 Wins in 2024
11.5 (-150)
I hate laying this much juice, but there are a ton of outs for just an 11-win season in San Francisco. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is in contract negotiations, which are clearly contentious. The 49ers also need to bolster their offensive line, to keep minimal reliance on Brock Purdy’s passing ability. After an incredibly efficient season from running back Christian McCaffrey, there are simply too many outs for the under here.
Detroit Lions Under 10.5 Wins in 2024
10.5 (-115)
Everything went Detroit’s way last season, culminating in a 12-5 record. The Lions will now inherit a first-place NFC North schedule and will see a challenge from a Green Bay team that improved throughout the season. I have my doubts about a Lions repeat, unless they can improve a pass defense that ranked just 16th in DVOA last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 7.5 Wins in 2024
7.5 (-150)
This line is on the move, and I was fortunate to grab it at -140. The Steelers finished 10-7 with the worst offense in recent Pittsburgh history, ranking just 20th in passing offense DVOA. Former starting quarterback Kenny Pickett started 12 games and threw just six touchdowns with four interceptions. The addition of quarterback Russell Wilson and Justin Fields makes it difficult to envision the Steelers posting three wins fewer than 2023.
