Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The NFL season may be over, but it’s never too early to start prepping for the upcoming year, getting a head start on futures. In this article I’ll be looking at the Offensive Player of the Year market, highlighting a few candidates that stand out at the moment. Although quarterbacks are eligible to win the award, only one signal-caller has won Offensive Player of the Year over the last six seasons, dating back to Patrick Mahomes’s first full season as the starter in 2018. As a result, I’ll be focusing more on skill players, specifically wide receivers and running backs.
2024 NFL OPOY Odds and Best Bets
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
(+800, BetRivers)
Tyreek Hill was the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year for a large part of last season, making a legitimate case for MVP. He was on pace to become the first 2,000-yard wide receiver in NFL history, averaging 7.8 receptions, 123.4 receiving yards and a touchdown over his first 12 games.
Unfortunately, a sprained ankle in Week 13 knocked Hill down the leaderboard, forcing him to miss a game and causing him to never quite look the same even when he returned to the field. That said, Hill still led the league in receiving yards (1,799) and receiving touchdowns (13), trailing only CeeDee Lamb in receptions (119). He also totaled 512 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, finishing as the only skill position player to top the 500 mark.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
(+1100, BetRivers)
CeeDee Lamb is coming off a career year, leading the NFL in receptions (135), trailing only Tyreek Hill in receiving yards (1,749) and finishing third in receiving touchdowns (12). As great as Lamb was in 2023, he really didn’t start to get things going until the midway point of the season, looking like a completely different player out of the bye. From Week 8 on, Lamb was seeing over 12 targets per game (12.6), averaging 9.2 receptions, 115.8 receiving yards and a touchdown over the last 11 games of the regular season.
Extrapolating that sample over 17 games would have put Lamb on pace for 156.4 receptions and 1,968 receiving yards, the most by any player in NFL history. Although we can’t copy and paste last season’s production into 2024, Lamb should be the focal point of the offense from day one, facing little threat of target competition. At just 24 years old, Lamb still has room to grow, playing on one of the best offenses in the league with a top-tier quarterback. He also gets a slight boost in the media for being the face of America’s Team, likely making a lot of prime-time appearances.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
(+5000, BetRivers)
Less than a year removed from a torn ACL, Breece Hall was phenomenal in his sophomore season, finishing with the fourth-most yards from scrimmage in the NFL (1,585), trailing only Christian McCaffrey among running backs. Aside from a miraculous recovery, Hall’s production was even more impressive given the state of his team, playing on a Jets offense that finished dead last in DVOA (-29.8%), averaging just 268.2 yards per game, ahead of only the Panthers. Among all players ranked inside the top eight in scrimmage yards, Hall was the only player whose team didn’t make the playoffs, let alone finish above .500. Aaron Rodgers may not be in his prime, but he’s undoubtedly better than the cast of characters under center last season, headlined by Zach Wilson. A competent signal caller helps Hall more than most other backs due to his involvement in the passing game, leading the position in targets (95), receptions (76), and receiving yards (591) last season. Nathaniel Hackett may not be the greatest offensive coordinator, however, through his three-year tenure calling plays for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, a running back, Aaron Jones, finished second on the team in targets and receptions every season. Hall should continue to see strong usage as a pass catcher, with minimal competition for targets outside of Garrett Wilson.
