2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets

Earlier this offseason, I picked out my favorite Offensive Player of The Year candidates, explaining the importance of trying to get ahead of line movement before rosters shakeup via free agency and ahead of the NFL Draft. Now with the Hall of Fame Game in the books, and preseason games set to kick off, I wanted to provide a fresh update, highlighting a few players that may still have some value by using the FTN Prop Shop to find the best odds. 

 2024 NFL OPOY Odds and Best Bets

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

(+1000, BetRivers)

Tyreek Hill was the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year for a large part of last season, making a legitimate case for MVP. He was on pace to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history, averaging 7.8 receptions, 123.4 receiving yards, and a touchdown over his first 12 games. Unfortunately, a sprained ankle in Week 13 knocked Hill down the leaderboard, forcing him to miss a game, never looking quite the same even when he returned to the field. Still, Hill’s 1,799 receiving yards through 16 games, was the seventh-most all-time in a single season, leading all players in 2023. He fell just short of the triple crown, trailing only CeeDee Lamb in receptions (119) and tying with Mike Evans for first in the league in receiving touchdowns (13) while playing one fewer game than both players. He was the most dominant player on a per-route basis, leading the NFL in both targets per route run (0.35) and yards per route run (3.7). Outside of quarterbacks, there wasn’t a single player more valuable to his offense than Hill, responsible for a league-high 512 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

(+1000, BetRivers)

CeeDee Lamb is coming off a career year, leading the NFL in targets (181) and receptions (135), recording the ninth-most receiving yards all-time (1,799), trailing only Tyreek Hill in 2023, finishing third by one score in receiving touchdowns (12). He made a strong case as arguably the best wide receiver in the league last season, leading the position in total EPA (113.7). As great as Lamb was, he really didn’t start to get things going until the second half of the season, looking like a completely different player out of the bye. From Week 8 on, Lamb saw a significant uptick in volume, seeing over 12 targets per game (12.6), averaging 9.2 receptions, 115.8 receiving yards and a touchdown over the last 11 games of the regular season. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, would have put Lamb on pace for over 156 receptions and 1,968 receiving yards, a record in both categories. Entering 2024, Lamb’s target competition somehow looks worse, with a soon-to-be 31-year-old Brandin Cooks the only other receiver locked into a starting role. There’s no reason why Lamb can’t be even better this upcoming season, incentivized to show out in the final year of his rookie contract, with his eyes fixated on an extension.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

(+1700, BetRivers)

Less than a year removed from a torn ACL, Breece Hall was phenomenal in his sophomore season, finishing with the fourth-most yards from scrimmage in the NFL (1,585), trailing only reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey among running backs. Even at less than 100% health, Hall was one of the most explosive backs in the league, finishing second among all players (min. 200 rushing attempts) in yards after contact per carry (3.4) and third in PFF’s elusive rating. Per Next Gen Stats, Hall’s +0.67 rush yards per carry over expected was the sixth-highest mark in the league, despite playing behind an offensive lineman that ranked 29th in run-block win rate. As great as Hall was as a rusher, he also played a critical role as a pass catcher, leading all running backs in targets (95), receptions (76) and receiving yards (591). He was one of the few bright spots on an offense that ranked dead last in DVOA (-29.8%) last season, averaging the second-fewest yards per game (268.6).

The Jets were cautious with Hall’s usage early on, limiting him to a sub-50% snap share over the first eight games of the season (49%), giving the bulk of the work to a combination of Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter, both gone from the team. However, in the last three weeks of the season, already eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time, we got a glimpse of what Hall’s role could look like at full strength, rarely ever leaving the field, playing on 78% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in Weeks 16-18, seeing 32.3 opportunities per game, averaging 31 touches, 169 scrimmage yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game during that span. With another offseason to recover, Hall finally gets to play alongside a competent quarterback possibly for the first time in his short career. At 40 years old (41 in December), Aaron Rodgers may not be at the peak of his powers, especially off a torn Achilles, but the upgrade under center cannot be overstated when compared to the cast of characters that all started multiple games at quarterback last season, featuring a laughable list that includes the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle. Rodgers’ limited mobility in the pocket could result in a greater number of checkdowns, giving Hall more work as a receiver. In Nathaniel Hackett’s three-year tenure calling plays for Rodgers and the Packers from 2019 to 2021, a running back (Aaron Jones) has finished second on the team in targets and receptions every season. 

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

(+5000, BetRivers)

Deebo Samuel was rumored to be a trade candidate earlier this offseason, and reportedly almost moved on draft day after the 49ers selected wide receiver Ricky Pearsall with their first first-round pick since Trey Lance in 2021. Now entering training camp, Samuel looks to be a lock to stay on the roster coming off a strong 2023 campaign. He scored a career-high 7 receiving touchdowns, tied for first on the team, totaling 60 receptions for 892 yards in 15 games. He also handled 37 carries as a rusher, posting 225 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt while logging a career-best 67.6% success rate. When healthy, Samuel did a little bit of everything on offense, averaging over 15 yards on the ground (15.7) and 66 yards through the air, scoring 12 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in 13 games logging double-digit snaps. There are a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco, but Samuel could see his stock skyrocket in the upcoming weeks, with Brandon Aiyuk currently “holding in,” already requesting a trade after unsuccessful talks of an extension. If Aiyuk were to get moved, no player would benefit more than Samuel, who would immediately vault up to the clear No. 1 target, on a 49ers offense that ended last season ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA as a unit (31.1) and in passing (57.7%), averaging the second most yards (398.4) and third-most points (28.9) per game. In the lone game without Aiyuk last season, Samuel posted a team-high 31% target share, seeing 12 passes come his way, catching six balls for 129 yards and a score.