Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The NFL season may be over, but it’s never too early to start prepping for the upcoming year, getting a head start on futures. In this article I’ll be looking at the MVP market, highlighting a few candidates that stand out at the moment. Although the award is open to all positions, I’ll just be focusing on quarterbacks, considering a signal-caller has won the MVP in each of the last 11 seasons.
2024 NFL MVP Odds and Best Bets
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
(+800, FanDuel Sportsbook/Caesars)
Had it not been for a 6-6 start, Josh Allen had a legitimate case to win MVP last year, leading all quarterbacks in several advanced metrics, no matter where you look.
| Top Quarterbacks of 2023 in 10 Different Advanced Metrics | |||||
| QB | Adj DYAR | Pass DVOA | Team DVOA | PFF | SIS Tot Pts |
| Josh Allen | 1674 (2) | 20.8% (5) | 39.1% (2) | 91.3 (1) | 161 (1) |
| Lamar Jackson | 1205 (7) | 18.9% (7) | 32.0% (6) | 90.3 (3) | 119 (4) |
| Dak Prescott | 1347 (4) | 18.3% (8) | 25.4% (11) | 90.8 (2) | 154 (2) |
| Brock Purdy | 1708 (1) | 42.5% (1) | 60.8% (1) | 88.4 (4) | 114 (8) |
| QB | EPA | Adj EPA | DAKOTA* | WPA | ESPN QBR |
| Josh Allen | 145.6 (3) | 135.1 (2) | .145 (3) | 3.97 (2) | 69.3 (3) |
| Lamar Jackson | 91.4 (8) | 66.7 (10) | .119 (9) | 2.09 (11) | 65.1 (4) |
| Dak Prescott | 177.6 (1) | 143.6 (1) | .164 (2) | 4.42 (1) | 72.6 (2) |
| Brock Purdy | 176.9 (2) | 131.3 (3) | .204 (1) | 3.22 (4) | 72.8 (1) |
| *EPA/CPOE composite from RBSDM.com | |||||
He ended the regular season ranked top five in passing yards (4,306) and passing touchdowns (29), tied for first at the position in rushing touchdowns (15), and leading the NFL in total touchdowns (44). Since Allen’s breakout 2020 campaign, he’s been as steady as they come, recording 4,280-plus yards through the air, and 420-plus yards on the ground, to go along with 42-plus combined passing and rushing touchdowns in each of the last four seasons. He’s led Buffalo to four straight divisional titles during that span and although wins are not a quarterback stat, they play a critical role in determining the MVP.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
(+1400, DraftKings Sportsbook)
C.J. Stroud put together one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, throwing for the third-most yards by a first-year player in NFL history (4,108), despite missing two games, leading the NFL in pass yards per game (273.8). With Stroud under center, the Texans won the AFC South for the first time since 2019, totaling the same number of victories as the past three prior seasons combined (1). As the No. 2 pick, Stroud became the highest-drafted rookie quarterback to win a playoff game as the starter, putting on a show in his playoff debut, completing 76.2% of his passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns, facing a stout Cleveland secondary, that ended the regular season second overall in DVOA on defense (-20.7%) and against the pass (-24.3%). Through 17 games, including the postseason, Stroud had a 21:2 touchdown:interception ratio against winning teams, the highest mark by any player in NFL history. At 22 years old, the arrow is pointing up for Stroud in his second season, who is quietly one of the biggest winners early in the offseason, retaining his offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who was a hot commodity in the head coaching cycle. His surrounding cast could look a lot different in 2024, considering the Texans have eight picks in the upcoming draft, along with the sixth most cap space in the league.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
(+1800, Caesars)
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles ended the season on a sour note, losing six of their last seven games and falling 32-9 to the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. Hurts didn’t look the same without A.J. Brown but had been dealing with injuries of his own, already battling through a knee injury, before dislocating his finger in the last game of the regular season. Despite playing at less than 100% health for a large part of the season, Hurts still put together a promising campaign, rushing for the third most yards among all quarterbacks (605), tied with Josh Allen for first at the position in rushing touchdowns (15), setting a new single-season record. Since his first year as the starter, Hurts has been a consistent winner, making the playoffs each of the last three seasons to go along with a Super Bowl appearance. A full off-season to recover should bode well for Hurts who still has one of the best supporting casts entering 2024. As long as the “tush push” is still legal, he should continue stuffing the stat sheet, recording 600-plus rushing yards and double-digit rushing touchdowns in three consecutive seasons.
