NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Earlier this offseason, I picked out my favorite MVP candidates, explaining the importance of trying to get ahead of line movement before rosters shakeup via free agency and ahead of the NFL draft. C.J. Stroud stands out as one of the biggest risers — he was at +1400 back in February, but his odds are as short as +800 in the current market, following the acquisition of Stefon Diggs.
With the Hall of Fame Game in the books, and preseason games set to kick off, I wanted to provide a fresh update, highlighting a few players that may still have some value by using the FTN Prop Shop to find the best odds. I’ll focus solely on quarterbacks, considering a signal caller has won the award in 11 consecutive seasons. Since the MVP was first introduced to the NFL, a quarterback has finished first in voting 47 times over the course of 68 seasons, good for a very nice 69.12% hit rate. Running backs are the only other position to win the award multiple times (18), but none since LaDainian Tomlinson back in 2006.
MVP Winners By Position (1938-2023)
- Quarterback: 47 (69.12%)
- Running Back: 18 (26.47%)
- Linebacker: 1 (14.7%)
- Defensive Lineman: 1 (14.7%)
- Kicker: 1 (14.7%)
2024 NFL MVP Odds and Best Bets
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
(+900, DraftKings Sportsbook/BetMGM)
Had it not been for a 6-6 start, Josh Allen had a legitimate case to win MVP last year, finishing first among all quarterbacks in PFF grade (91.3) and SIS Total Points (161), ranked inside the top three in other advanced metrics.
| Top Quarterbacks of 2023 in 8 Different Advanced Metrics | |||||
| QB | Adj DYAR | Pass DVOA | Team DVOA | PFF | SIS Tot Pts |
| Josh Allen | 1674 (2) | 20.8% (5) | 39.1% (2) | 91.3 (1) | 161 (1) |
| Lamar Jackson | 1205 (7) | 18.9% (7) | 32.0% (6) | 90.3 (3) | 119 (4) |
| Dak Prescott | 1347 (4) | 18.3% (8) | 25.4% (11) | 90.8 (2) | 154 (2) |
| Brock Purdy | 1708 (1) | 42.5% (1) | 60.8% (1) | 88.4 (4) | 114 (8) |
| QB | EPA | Adj EPA | DAKOTA* | WPA | ESPN QBR |
| Josh Allen | 145.6 (3) | 135.1 (2) | .145 (3) | 3.97 (2) | 69.3 (3) |
| Lamar Jackson | 91.4 (8) | 66.7 (10) | .119 (9) | 2.09 (11) | 65.1 (4) |
| Dak Prescott | 177.6 (1) | 143.6 (1) | .164 (2) | 4.42 (1) | 72.6 (2) |
| Brock Purdy | 176.9 (2) | 131.3 (3) | .204 (1) | 3.22 (4) | 72.8 (1) |
| *EPA/CPOE composite from RBSDM.com | |||||
Allen was one of only four signal callers to top 4,300 yards through the air last season (4,306), tied for fifth in the league in passing touchdowns (29), while also posting the ninth highest completion rate among all passers with at least 150 dropbacks in 2013 (66.5%). As great as Allen was as a passer, he was arguably even more dominant with his legs, finishing as one of just four quarterbacks with 500-plus yards on the ground (524), setting a single-season record and tied for first at the position in rushing touchdowns (15). No player found the end zone more frequently than Allen, totaling 44 combined passing and rushing touchdowns, tied for 11th all-time in a single season.
Since the Bills traded away Stefon Diggs, Allen had dropped down the MVP ladder, making it a good time to buy low. Looking back to last season, Buffalo’s best stretch of games came when the team slowly started getting away from Diggs, following the departure of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. From Week 11 on, with Joe Brady taking over as the play caller, the Bills won six of their last seven games, defeating Miami in the last game of the regular season to gain sole possession of first place in the AFC East, winning their fourth consecutive division title. During that span, Diggs had no more than four receptions and/or held to less than 30 receiving yards in four out of seven games, hitting pay dirt just once with Brady at the helm, averaging 4.86 grabs for 49.14 in Weeks 11 to 18.
At the same time, Allen saw minimal dropoff as a passer, but a significant uptick in utilization and production as a rusher, averaging nine carries for almost 40 yards (39.71), scoring 15 total touchdowns over the last seven games. Over the course of a 17-game season, Allen’s rushing production with Brady, would have put him on pace for 153 carries, 675-plus rushing yards, and 19-plus rushing touchdowns, breaking his own record. Losing Diggs hurts, but the Bills have been active in the free agent market, most notably bringing in Curtis Samuel, who had his best season playing alongside Brady, in the final year the two shared in Carolina, handling 118 touches for 1,051 yards from scrimmage through 15 games in 2020. They also added wide receiver Keon Coleman at the top of Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft (No. 33), again using their first pick on a pass catcher in back-to-back seasons.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
(+1600, FanDuel Sportsbook/BetMGM/Caesars/Bet365)
The Eagles were the latest victims of the Super Bowl hangover, losing five of their last six games last year to close the regular season followed by a humiliating 32-9 loss to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. The absence of A.J. Brown to open to the playoffs hurt Philly’s offense, especially Hurts, who was already entering the game banged up, dealing with a nagging knee injury and suffering a dislocated finger in the season finale. Hurts threw for just 250 yards and one touchdown on the night, clearly limited as a rusher, handling a season-low 1 carry for 5 scoreless yards.
Even playing at less than 100% health for a large part of the season, Hurts was unstoppable with his legs, rushing for the third most yards all quarterbacks in 2023 (605), tied with Josh Allen for first at the position in rushing touchdowns (15), setting a new single-season record. It was his third consecutive season rushing for 600-plus yards and scoring double-digit rushing touchdowns, a feat that only two other quarterbacks — Cam Newton (2011) and Kyler Murray (2020) — have cleared in NFL history and none more than once. As a passer, Hurts set career-highs across the board last season, throwing for 3,858 yards and 23 touchdowns on 538 dropbacks, posing the fifth-highest completion percentage over expected among all qualified signal callers in 2023 (+2.7%).
With a full offseason to recover and an upgrade at playcaller in Kellen Moore, there’s no reason why Hurts can’t continue to elevate his game, playing behind one of the game’s best offensive lines with arguably the best supporting cast in the league. As if the trio of Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert weren’t enough weapons on offense, the Eagles made a huge splash in free agency, signing two-time Pro Bowl running back and former division rival Saquon Barkley to the fourth-highest contract at the position.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
(+2000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Cowboys were once again humiliated in the playoffs, despite entering the NFC Wild Card Round as over a touchdown favorite at home (-7.5), winning 16 consecutive games at AT&T stadium up to that point. They collapsed on both sides of the ball, at one point trailing the Packers 27-0 following an ugly pick-six by Dak Prescott late in the second quarter. After a rough start, Prescott salvaged his day largely in garbage time, totaling 403 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions on the night. Still, the most recent performance has knocked Prescott too far down the MVP ladder, with odds as long as +2000 to win the award in 2024, seemingly ignoring his play in the regular season.
Prescott led Dallas to a third consecutive 12-win season, tied with San Francisco and Detroit for second best in the league and first in the conference, leading the NFC East. There weren’t many signal callers as dominant and efficient as Prescott, who finished third in the NFL in passing yards (4,516) and first in passing touchdowns (36), leading all quarterbacks that started double-digit games in completion percentage (69.5%). When healthy, Prescott has been as steady as they came, throwing for over 4,400 yards and 30-plus touchdowns in each of the last three seasons playing more than 12 games. Since being paired up with Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys offense has been a juggernaut, leading the NFL in scoring three out of four seasons, averaging 32.6 points per game in the five games started by Prescott back in 2019. Now entering the final year of his contract, Prescott has every incentive to show out this season, eyeing a lucrative extension.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
(+5000, DraftKings Sportsbook/FanDuel Sportsbook/BetMGM/Caesars)
At this time last offseason, there were questions about whether Kyler Murray would still be a Cardinal in 2024, still recovering from a torn ACL. With Steve Keim stepping down, Arizona brought in an entirely new front office, featuring former Titans director of player personnel, Monti Ossenfort as the general manager and former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as head coach. With no ties to the players currently on the roster, there was a wide assumption that the new regime was headed toward a rebuild, possibly entering the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. There was no timeline for Murray’s return, but it was clear that he would not be available at the start of the season after being placed on the PUP list.
As a result, the Cardinals traded for Joshua Dobbs who would go on to start the first seven games before getting shipped out to the Vikings, and replaced by the fourth-round rookie Clayton Tune. From Week 1, it was clear that Arizona had no interest in throwing the season away, staying competitive in every game, despite the abysmal play under center. Once he was cleared to return, Murray was immediately thrust back into the lineup, leading his team to a 25-23 victory against the Falcons, breaking a six-game losing streak. Even with nothing to play for, the Cardinals won three of their last eight games, playing in a brutal stretch, facing five teams that would eventually go on to make the playoffs. With Murray back at the helm, the offense really started hitting its stride, averaging the ninth most yards and tenth most points per game from Weeks 10 on, ranked inside the top 10 in EPA per play during that span. As a rusher, Murray showed no signs of being limited, clocking in at 20.17 MPH on a 13-yard scramble in his first game back, recording his fastest speed since 2021.
He handled 44 carries through eight games, rushing for 244 yards and three touchdowns. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, would have put Murray on pace for 518.5 rushing yards and 6.38 touchdowns, both of which would have been top-five marks among all signal callers in 2023. Health has been an issue for Murray, but it’s easy to forget the last time he played more than 14 games (2020), the 2020 No. 1 overall pick was putting up MVP numbers, totaling 3,971 yards and 26 touchdowns through the air, to go along with 819 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Since the start of the offseason, Arizona has continued adding pieces to the offense, putting Murray in the best spot to succeed. They spent their first-round pick on a generational wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fifth overall pick, while also bringing in another weapon on Day 2, selecting Trey Benson in round three as the second running back in the class. Gannon and company’s biggest obstacle will be figuring out how to fix the defense after finishing dead last in DVOA (17.3) last season, while allowing the second-most points per game (26.8).
