Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 18 of the NFL season is, of course, the weirdest week of the year. Mismatched incentives lead to weird players putting up weird performances and some teams laying down because they don’t care. Remember when Jordan Akins was the overall TE1 in fantasy in Week 18 of 2022? Of course you don’t, but I promise it happened.
That means just about every result you see in Week 18 should be taken with a grain of salt. Sure, the Lions and Vikings are playing for the 1 seed and NFC playoff bye, so they’ll be going all out, but take Bills-Patriots. The Bills have no incentive to try — they are locked into the AFC 2 seed, and, other than getting Josh Allen the start to keep his consecutive-games streak going, aren’t likely to press their key names. On the flip side, the Patriots are currently lined up to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, so they actually have incentive to lose. But the Bills have at least a small incentive to also lose, to maybe prevent their division rival from getting the first pick and a likely massive trade haul. If the Patriots win 10-6, what do we take from that? If the Bills edge New England 7-6, what then?
We’ll be back for a season finale power rankings next week, but the point here is that the power rankings right now might be even more informative. Which brings us to the NFL power rankings for Week 18. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 17
Biggest Risers
Cincinnati Bengals +4 (18 to 14)
Biggest Fallers
Cleveland Browns -6 (25 to 31)
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (8 to 12)
1. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 4, Average Score: 1.6)
Record: 11-5, +132 point differential
Week 17: Beat the Texans 31-2
Week 18: vs. Cleveland (Saturday)
The Ravens have come out of their bye with three straight wins by a combined score of 100-33, with two of the wins coming over playoff teams. They’re looking just about unstoppable.
2. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 1, Average Score: 2.6)
Record: 13-3, +164
Week 17: Beat the Jets 40-14
Week 18: @ New England
The Bills not only got the win Sunday, they embarrassed the rival Jets and might have ended Aaron Rodgers’ career. Dramatic.
3. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 3, Average Score: 3.0)
Record: 14-2, +200
Week 17: Beat the 49ers 40-34
Week 18: vs. Minnesota (Sunday night)
The last five weeks, the Lions have allowed an average of 30.0 points per game. They’re 4-1 in that stretch and still one of the favorites, but if the defense can’t get turned around, that won’t fly in the playoffs
4. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 2, Average Score: 3.8)
Record: 13-3, +153
Week 17: Beat the Cowboys 41-7
Week 18: vs. NY Giants
The Eagles certainly wanted to rebound after that frustrating loss in Week 16, and rolling their top rival 41-7 was a big way to do that.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 6, Average Score: 5.0)
Record: 15-1, +97
Week 17: Beat the Steelers 29-10
Week 18: @ Denver
We’re done doubting the Chiefs around here, but all the same, it’s hard to see them as anything but the worst 15-1 team we’ve ever seen. Which, sure, but still … 15-1.
6. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 7, Average Score: 5.6)
Record: 14-2, +122
Week 17: Beat the Packers 27-25
Week 18: @ Detroit (Sunday night)
No team needed a statement win (for public perception) more than the Vikings, and they got it. Now, with them facing the Lions and the Chiefs having nothing to play for, there’s now a chance they finish the season with the best record in football (with their point differential the tiebreaker against the Chiefs).
7. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 5, Average Score: 6.4)
Record: 11-5, +124
Week 17: Lost to the Vikings 27-25
Week 18: vs. Chicago
Sunday’s game meant more for the Vikings (who could still get the NFC bye) than the Packers (who were basically playing for seeding), but all the same, that was a disappointing loss.
8. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 11, Average Score: 8.2)
Record: 11-5, +90
Week 17: Beat the Falcons 30-24
Week 18: @ Dallas
The Commanders have a major “team of destiny” feel about them. That’s not analytical and shouldn’t factor into decisions, but the end-of-year highlight reel writes itself.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 12, Average Score: 9.0)
Record: 10-6, +87
Week 17: Beat the Patriots 40-7
Week 18: @ Las Vegas
The Chargers went out of their way to make sure J.K. Dobbins found the end zone in his return last week (and my fantasy team thanks them for that), but he can be productive in the playoffs, this offense is a lot more interesting.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 9, Average Score: 10.8)
Record: 9-7, +109
Week 17: Beat the Panthers 48-14
Week 18: vs. New Orleans
Not many teams look as good as the Buccaneers when they’re on, they just aren’t “on” as often as you’d like.
11. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 10, Average Score: 12.0)
Record: 9-7, +76
Week 17: Lost to the Bengals 30-24
Week 18: vs. Kansas City
If the Broncos can’t beat Carson Wentz and the playing-for-nothing Chiefs to make the playoffs, they probably don’t deserve to make it anyway.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 8, Average Score: 12.6)
Record: 10-6, +35
Week 17: Lost to the Chiefs 29-10
Week 18: vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
Assuming the Ravens win early Saturday, the Steelers are only playing for seeding Saturday night. That said, the team (a) really won’t want to go into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak and (b) would love to end their rival’s season.
13. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 14, Average Score: 13.2)
Record: 10-6, -14
Week 17: Beat the Cardinals 13-9
Week 18: vs. Seattle
The Rams have won five in a row, but do we need to be concerned that they’ve score da total of 44 points the last three weeks? (Allowing 24 in that time does offset that.)
14. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 18, Average Score: 13.4)
Record: 8-8, +36
Week 17: Beat the Broncos 30-24
Week 18: @ Pittsburgh (Saturday)
The odds are still stacked against the Bengals making the playoffs, but if they can squeak in, a game against Buffalo would be the absolute highlight of the Wild Card Round.
15. Houston Texans (Last Week: 13, Average Score: 14.2)
Record: 9-7, -9
Week 17: Lost to the Ravens 31-2
Week 18: @ Tennessee
After starting 5-1, the Texans have gone 4-6. No one will be that impressed by a win over the Titans in Week 18, but they kind of need it just for appearance’s sake.
16. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 16, Average Score: 16.0)
Record: 6-10, -24
Week 17: Lost to the Lions 40-34
Week 18: @ Arizona
The 49ers never really got going this year, but now they’ve lost six of their last seven. Disaster season in San Francisco.
17. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 15, Average Score: 16.4)
Record: 9-7, +2
Week 17: Beat the Bears 6-3
Week 18: @ LA Rams
The Seahawks have no one to blame but themselves for their Week 18 game being meaningless. Too many costly mistakes and a nearly unforgivable loss to the Giants in Week 5.
18. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 19, Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 8-8, -7
Week 17: Beat the Browns 20-3
Week 18: @ NY Jets
The Dolphins are still alive for a playoff berth, but if you polled the viewing public who they would want to make it between the Dolphins, Bengals and Broncos, I bet Miami would finish last in the voting.
19. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 20, Average Score: 18.6)
Record: 8-8, -28
Week 17: Lost to the Commanders 30-24
Week 18: vs. Carolina
I hear the Falcons can redeem those unused timeouts for credit in the team shop this offseason.
20. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 17, Average Score: 19.2)
Record: 7-9, -2
Week 17: Lost to the Rams 13-9
Week 18: vs. San Francisco
Hey, at least Trey McBride finally had a touchdown catch.
21. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 23, Average Score: 21.6)
Record: 7-9, -114
Week 17: Lost to the Eagles 41-7
Week 18: vs. Washington
Without CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys border on unwatchable.
22. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 21, Average Score: 23.2)
Record: 7-9, -53
Week 17: Lost to the Giants 45-33
Week 18: vs. Jacksonville
The crown for the most embarrassing team down the stretch has to go to Indianapolis. Unforced errors against Denver and then letting Drew Lock knock them out of the playoffs. Inexcusable.
23. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 26, Average Score: 24.0)
Record: 4-12, -62
Week 17: Lost to the Seahawks 6-3
Week 18: @ Green Bay
It’s not just that the Bears have lost 10 straight since their Week 7 bye (and are likely to lose in Week 18). It’s that they’ve averaged a lowly 13.8 points in those 10 games, only putting up more than 20 once.
24. New York Jets (Last Week: 22, Average Score: 24.8)
Record: 4-12, -78
Week 17: Lost to the Bills 40-14
Week 18: vs. Miami
It’s no shade on the Jets for losing to the Bills in Week 17, because the Bills are very good. But how they lost was pretty darn pitiful.
25. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 28, Average Score: 25.2)
Record: 4-12, -199
Week 17: Lost to the Buccaneers 48-14
Week 18: @ Atlanta
Adam Thielen is ageless. He will outlive me. He will outlive you.
26. New England Patriots (Last Week: 27, Average Score: 26.2)
Record: 3-13, -135
Week 17: Lost to the Chargers 40-7
Week 18: vs. Buffalo
The Patriots are the odds-on favorite to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft, but at least Drake Maye is fun to watch.
27. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 24, Average Score: 27.4)
Record: 5-11, -52
Week 17: Lost to the Raiders 25-10
Week 18: @ Tampa Bay
The Saints’ list of hurt players would be a pretty decent fantasy roster.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 31, Average Score: 28.8)
Record: 4-12, -111
Week 17: Beat the Saints 25-10
Week 18: vs. LA Chargers
There are 10 teams that are on winning streaks of at least two games. Nine of them are either in the playoffs or still have a shot. And then there are the Raiders, who have doubled their season win total in the last week and a half.
29. New York Giants (Last Week: 32, Average Score: 29.0)
Record: 3-13, -135
Week 17: Beat the Colts 45-33
Week 18: @ Philadelphia
The Giants had scored 32 points in the preceding three weeks before their 45-point explosion in Week 17. Weirdest offensive performance of the season.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 29, Average Score: 29.8)
Record: 4-12, -112
Week 17: Beat the Titans 20-13
Week 18: vs. Indianapolis
The Jaguars have four wins this season. Three of them have come over teams that currently have three wins (New England once, Tennessee twice).
31. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 25, Average Score: 29.8)
Record: 3-13, -152
Week 17: Lost to the Dolphins 20-3
Week 18: @ Baltimore (Saturday)
Since that insane Monday game against the Broncos (497 passing yards for Jameis Winston, 235 receiving for Jerry Jeudy), the Browns have scored 30 points in four games, including 9 total in Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s two starts the last two weeks. It’s a non-functional offense right now.
32. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 30, Average Score: 30.0)
Record: 3-13, -140
Week 17: Lost to the Jaguars 30-13
Week 18: vs. Houston
If the Titans can pull off a Week 18 win over a Texans team with no playoff stake to play for (and if the Dolphins can squeak in), they will have four wins, with three of them coming over playoff teams. Weird.
Check out the full voting below.
