Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Teams are starting to find their level in our FTN weekly NFL power rankings. If you look at the full ranking chart (at the bottom of this article), you’ll see that we have a tight group at 1-2-3, another at 4-5-6-7, another at 8-9-10-11, and so on. Ultimately, the way to read these rankings is not as a 1-32 ranking, it’s as a group of tiers. Our third-place team (stay tuned!) is closer to No. 1 than it is to No. 4.
So in today’s rankings, I’m indicating our tiers as I go. You can call them Contenders, Pretenders and everything in between if you want — I’m just going to indicate where the tier breaks are. This isn’t an opinion on where the tiers fall, it’s a gap clearly indicated by our consensus votes.
Which brings us to the NFL power rankings for Week 17. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 16
Biggest Risers
Carolina Panthers +4 (28 to 24)
Cincinnati Bengals +3 (18 to 15)
Biggest Fallers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 (9 to 14)
Cleveland Browns -4 (25 to 29)
Tier 1
1. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 1, Average Score: 2.2)
Record: 12-3, +138 point differential
Week 16: Beat the Patriots 24-21
Week 17: vs. NY Jets
Every team needs a scare, and the Bills got theirs Sunday, falling behind 14 in the second quarter and not taking their first lead until late in the third. They get the Jets and the Patriots (again) to end the season on a high note.
The Bills do finish first in our overall voting, but it’s worth noting that of our five voting entities, two had the Bills first, one had the Lions and two had the Ravens. Those are (probably) the top three teams, but exactly which is first is a very tough debate.
2. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 3, Average Score: 2.4)
Record: 13-2, +194
Week 16: Beat the Bears 34-17
Week 17: @ San Francisco (Monday)
Can Kyle Shanahan take advantage of the broken-apart Lions defense in a way the Bears couldn’t? The Lions getting to 14-2 could set up a huge Week 18 game.
3. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 4, Average Score: 2.8)
Record: 10-5, +103
Week 16: Beat the Steelers 34-17
Week 17: @ Houston (Wednesday)
The MVP debate between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen should be much closer than current betting odds indicate. Two all-time seasons.
Tier 2
4. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 5, Average Score: 4.6)
Record: 11-4, +126
Week 16: Beat the Saints 34-0
Week 17: @ Minnesota
The Packers would be leading every other division in football but the AFC East, NFC East and AFC West, yet they’re in third in their own. We’re probably setting up for the best third-place season in NFL history … unless they can overtake the Lions or Vikings, in which case those teams would take that crown.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 2, Average Score: 5.2)
Record: 12-3, +119
Week 16: Lost to the Commanders 36-33
Week 17: vs. Dallas
If Jalen Hurts can clear concussion protocol for this week, the Eagles are probably fine. If he can’t, suddenly there’s some real concern.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 6, Average Score: 5.6)
Record: 14-1, +78
Week 16: Beat the Texans 27-19
Week 17: @ Pittsburgh (Wednesday)
The Bills and Lions each surpassed a +78 point differential in Week 8. Here we are in Week 17, and the Chiefs haven’t gotten there yet. Nothing against what they’ve accomplished, but it’s very wild.
7. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 7, Average Score: 5.8)
Record: 13-2, +120
Week 16: Beat the Seahawks 27-24
Week 17: vs. Green Bay
If the Vikings can get to 15-2 (particularly if they do so convincingly), could Sam Darnold climb to third in MVP voting? Higher?
Tier 3
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 8, Average Score: 8.4)
Record: 10-5, +54
Week 16: Lost to the Ravens 34-17
Week 17: vs. Kansas City (Wednesday)
How much of the Steelers’ struggles of late are attributable to George Pickens’ absence and how much is just the wheels coming off? They’ve lost two straight and three of five and, with the Chiefs and Bengals to end the season, there’s a chance they fall all the way to 10-7 and the 7 seed.
9. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 11, Average Score: 9.0)
Record: 10-5, +84
Week 16: Beat the Eagles 36-33
Week 17: vs. Atlanta (Sunday night)
Jayden Daniels has packed a career’s worth of all-time highlights into the majority of a rookie season. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be an all-timer necessarily, but the resume reel is ready.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 12, Average Score: 9.8)
Record: 9-6, +54
Week 16: Beat the Broncos 34-27
Week 17: @ New England (Saturday)
The Chargers really needed their win Thursday night after a bad stretch. With J.K. Dobbins returning, they could be righting the ship just in time.
11. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 10, Average Score: 10.6)
Record: 9-6, +82
Week 16: Lost to the Chargers 34-27
Week 17: @ Cincinnati (Saturday)
There’s a chance the Broncos playoff hopes come down to a game against Carson Wentz of all people in Week 18. Though a win over the Bengals Saturday would end that.
Tier 4
12. Houston Texans (Last Week: 13, Average Score: 13.2)
Record: 9-6, +20
Week 16: Lost to the Chiefs 27-19
Week 17: vs. Baltimore (Wednesday)
The loss of Tank Dell is crushing. Now it’s Nico Collins and a whole host of question marks.
13. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 14, Average Score: 13.2)
Record: 9-6, -18
Week 16: Beat the Jets 19-9
Week 17: vs. Arizona (Saturday)
The Rams have gone 2-0 since their uber-exciting win over the Bills when they scored 44, but with a combined 31 points. The offense has to get right again.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 9, Average Score: 13.8)
Record: 8-7, +75
Week 16: Lost to the Cowboys 26-24
Week 17: vs. Carolina
The Buccaneers falling at the hands of the Cowboys Sunday night was a brutal blow, as they no longer control their own playoff fate. But with the Falcons getting the Commanders this week and the Bucs playing Carolina, they could get it fixed quickly.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 18, Average Score: 14.8)
Record: 7-8, +30
Week 16: Beat the Browns 24-6
Week 17: vs. Denver (Saturday)
Even if they can convert a five-leg parlay the rest of the way (beat the Broncos, beat the Steelers, Chiefs beat the Broncos, Colts and Dolphins lose one each), the Bengals’ defense is so bad they probably can’t make a playoff run even if they get there. But oh, the excitement if they do squeak in.
Tier 5
16. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 15, Average Score: 16.8)
Record: 8-7, -1
Week 16: Lost to the Vikings 27-24
Week 17: @ Chicago (Thursday)
There’s a chance the Seahawks can be eliminated this week even with a win (the Rams would have to win and some other strength-of-victory tiebreakers would have to be decided), which would really throw a wrench into the “which game is the Sunday night game in Week 18?” conversation.
17. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 16, Average Score: 17.4)
Record: 6-9, -18
Week 16: Lost to the Dolphins 29-17
Week 17: vs. Detroit (Monday)
Deebo Samuel Sr. putting up his best game since at least Week 6 had to feel good. That it came after the 49ers had been eliminated from the playoffs had to feel less good.
18. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 20, Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 8-7, -22
Week 16: Beat the Giants 34-7
Week 17: @ Washington (Sunday night)
It’s amazing the salve that a game against the Giants can be. The Falcons suddenly control their own playoff fate.
19. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 7, Average Score: 18.6)
Record: 13-2, +120
Week 16: Beat the Seahawks 27-24
Week 17: vs. Green Bay
No team in the league has gone longer since its last 400-yard game since the Dolphins, who haven’t done it since Week 1.
20. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 17, Average Score: 19.0)
Record: 7-8, +2
Week 16: Lost to the Panthers 36-30
Week 17: @ LA Rams (Saturday)
If you had told a Cardinals fan in the preseason that Arizona would be 7-8 with the only plus point differential in the NFC West, they’d probably have been fine with it. But after having gone into the bye in first place at 6-4, it’s a deflating end to an ultimately fine season.
21. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 21, Average Score: 20.4)
Record: 7-8, -41
Week 16: Beat the Titans 38-30
Week 17: @ NY Giants
The Colts being right on the fringe of the playoffs, with a real shot at sneaking in, is a testament to Shane Steichen’s coaching job.
Tier 6
22. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 23, Average Score: 22.0)
Record: 7-8, -80
Week 16: Beat the Buccaneers 26-24
Week 17: @ Philadelphia
The Cowboys aren’t going to make the playoffs, but the chance to play spoiler to their rivals (the Eagles should beat the Giants in Week 18, but if they lose out and the Commanders win out, Washington takes the East) will still have them at least somewhat motivated.
Tier 7
23. New York Jets (Last Week: 22, Average Score: 23.6)
Record: 4-11, -52
Week 16: Lost to the Rams 19-9
Week 17: @ Buffalo
The Jets will be underdogs in Weeks 17 (Buffalo) and 18 (Miami), and if they lose both, they’ll have had a three-, four- and five-game losing streak this year (plus an unpaired loss in Week 1).
24. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 28, Average Score: 24.8)
Record: 4-11, -165
Week 16: Beat the Cardinals 36-30
Week 17: @ Tampa Bay
The Panthers have the worst point differential in the league by a fair amount, but since Week 8 they’re actually 3-4 with a -18 differential. They’ve just been a below-average team, not a record-settingly bad one.
25. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 26, Average Score: 25.8)
Record: 4-11, -59
Week 16: Lost to the Lions 34-17
Week 17: vs. Seattle (Thursday)
The warning about the Bears entering the season was that their second-half schedule was brutal, and that has proven to be the case — they went into their Week 7 bye at 4-2 and now sit at 4-11 with games against Seattle and Green Bay left.
26. New England Patriots (Last Week: 27, Average Score: 26.0)
Record: 3-12, -102
Week 16: Lost to the Bills 24-21
Week 17: vs. LA Chargers (Saturday)
The Raiders winning Sunday means the Patriots own the second overall pick in next year’s draft and don’t need a quarterback. There’s a path there to a huge trade return.
27. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 24, Average Score: 27.4)
Record: 5-10, -37
Week 16: Lost to the Packers 34-0
Week 17: vs. Las Vegas
Jake Haener wasn’t the answer, but Spencer Rattler appears to be even more not the answer. The Saints need to just get the clock to run out.
28. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 30, Average Score: 27.8)
Record: 3-12, -133
Week 16: Lost to the Colts 38-30
Week 17: @ Jacksonville
If the Titans can win their last two games, they’ll end the year 5-12 … but 4-2 in the division.
29. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 25, Average Score: 28.0)
Record: 3-12, -135
Week 16: Lost to the Bengals 24-6
Week 17: vs. Miami
Since their riveting Monday game against the Broncos, the Browns have scored only 27 points in three games. The offense is absolutely stagnant.
Tier 8
30. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 31, Average Score: 29.4)
Record: 3-12, -126
Week 16: Beat the Jaguars 19-14
Week 17: @ New Orleans
The Raiders got the win Sunday, but the cost could be great, potentially knocking them out of “draft a quarterback” range.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 29, Average Score: 30.0)
Record: 3-12, -119
Week 16: Lost to the Raiders 19-14
Week 17: vs. Tennessee
Like the Patriots, the Jaguars could pick very high in a draft where they aren’t likely to be in the quarterback market. That could kickstart some roster building.
32. New York Giants (Last Week: 32, Average Score: 31.2)
Record: 2-13, -147
Week 16: Lost to the Falcons 34-7
Week 17: vs. Indianapolis
Malik Nabers has been exciting as a rookie, but also, he hasn’t topped 85 yards since Week 4 and only has 1 touchdown since Week 3. Get this dude a quarterback, please.
Check out the full voting below.
