Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It is the calm before the storm in the NFL offseason. In just a few weeks, every team will be in training camp, and we will be gearing up for the 2024 NFL season. If you aren’t a best ball drafter, that means that in roughly one month, you’ll be drafting for fantasy football.
Even with little news, NFL ADP is moving on platforms like Underdog Fantasy, a best ball platform where drafts are taking place every day. While there aren’t sweeping changes to ADP, we can still learn plenty of information and start identifying the players to target and avoid in fantasy drafts before next season.
Check out this week’s edition of the ADP Rumblings below and keep an eye out for them weekly throughout the rest of the summer.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (7/17)
Biggest Riser
DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots
ADP: 152.8 (-8.6), WR71
Technically Noah Fant (-12.6 spots) and Demarcus Robinson (-9.0 spots) have both seen their ADP fall more since July 1. But both of those players got a writeup in last week’s ADP Rumblings, so we instead will write up DeMario Douglas.
Douglas is starting to see his ADP slowly climb in fantasy drafts as people begin to get an idea of what the Patriots passing offense will look like for the 2024 season. At worst, Douglas will be on the field as a slot-specific player in three-receiver sets depending on how quickly Kendrick Bourne can return from his 2023 ACL injury. At best, he will earn the outside receiver role across from Ja’Lynn Polk and transition to the slot in sub packages.
Either way, Douglas was one of the few bright spots on the Patriots during his rookie season. He provided excellent production considering he was a sixth-round pick, catching 49 of 79 targets for 561 yards. Those statistics were good enough to lead the team in targets and receiving yards, which is less than ideal.
Still, we expect a Patriots offense led by former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and with Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye at quarterback to be better than the Patriots had last year, which means Douglas could have some upside next season. His price factors in the fact that he will likely finish behind Ja’Lynn Polk in targets but is still reasonable for an exciting and explosive player.
Biggest Faller
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 147.8 (+8.3), WR68
The biggest faller over the last two weeks is 49ers rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall had been going higher throughout the summer based on his status as a first-round pick and the discourse surrounding a potential trade of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. Trades for either player have yet to materialize, so Pearsall’s ADP is likely just fantasy managers tempering their expectations.
Pearsall was a somewhat surprising first-round pick in 2024 given his lack of production at Florida and Arizona State. In five collegiate seasons, Pearsall had 159 receptions for 2,420 yards and 14 touchdowns while never surpassing 1,000 yards in a single season. The rookie also had some appeal as a rusher, handling 21 carries for 253 yards and five touchdowns in college.
Still, there isn’t a clear path to playing time for Pearsall so long as the 49ers skill corps remains intact. The 49ers even extended Jauan Jennings during the offseason, further complicating Pearsall’s path to meaningful targets as a rookie.
Unless Deebo or Aiyuk are moved before the season, it is hard to see a path for Pearsall to have fantasy appeal competing with them (plus Christian McCaffery and George Kittle) for targets next season.
Quarterback
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 193.6, (QB28)
Fantasy managers are starting to buy into Derek Carr in fantasy based on ADP. Since July 1, Carr has seen his ADP climb 7.8 spots, which puts him within one pick of QB27 (Daniel Jones).
Carr isn’t the best quarterback at this point, but he has shown the ability to be a steady floor play for fantasy managers. The veteran quarterback completed 68.4% of his passes for 3,878 yards and 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his first season with the Saints. That allowed him to finish as the QB16 in total points (249.1) despite his ranking as the QB29 in fantasy points per game (14.7).
Therein lies the problem with Carr. He will be in your lineup and he’s capable of putting up strong weeks at the quarterback position (three 20-plus-point scoring weeks in 2023). However, he’s also liable to completely disappear depending on his matchup (five weeks below 10.0 fantasy points). The Saints do have several interesting weapons for fantasy in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, which makes the QB28 price tag very palatable.
One thing to be mindful of if you’re rostering Derek Carr is his struggles under pressure in 2023 (and really, his whole career). Carr was 24th among NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage while pressured (49%) and threw for just 677 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions on 143 attempts last season. The Saints could have the worst offensive line in the NFL (especially if Ryan Ramczyk is unable to return from his knee issues), which could cause big problems for Carr’s production.
Still, there is very little risk in taking Carr in the final two rounds of the fantasy draft to serve as a streaming quarterback. He’s well worth the price tag and will likely continue to climb incrementally throughout the summer.
Running Back
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 168.5, RB53
Ray Davis has fallen seven spots in ADP since the start of July, which is curious given his potential role in Buffalo’s offense. Davis was a rotational back through his first three collegiate years at Temple and Vanderbilt before exploding in his fourth year. Davis handled 232 carries for 1,042 yards and five touchdowns while catching 29 passes for 169 yards and three touchdowns in his final season at Vanderbilt.
Instead of going pro, Davis transferred to Kentucky to have an opportunity to boost his draft status in a more pro-ready offense. The gamble paid off. Davis finished his final season in college with 199 carries for 1,129 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns while adding 33 receptions for 323 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.
Davis was taken in the fourth round by Buffalo to serve as the complement to James Cook in the backfield. Cook is coming off his strong season, but still gave up plenty of work to Latavius Murray (79 carries for 300 yards and four touchdowns) and Damien Harris (23 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown in six games). Even if Cook continues to take on the bulk of the backfield work, Davis could slot in nicely as a running back with touchdown upside in his first season.
James Cook had just four carries inside the 5-yard line last season, finishing behind Murray (12) and just one ahead of Harris (3). Buffalo could try to get him more involved in that role for his third season, but all signs point to these carries once again going elsewhere. Davis seems like the prime candidate (outside of Josh Allen at quarterback).
Davis is in an offense fantasy managers like and should have a solid role on the offense to start the season. He’s an excellent pick as a backend/upside running back, especially at his current RB53 price tag.
Wide Receiver
Gabe Davis, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 133.3, WR63
For the past few seasons, fantasy managers have been pushing Gabe Davis hoping to see some continuation from his 2021 playoff explosion against the Chiefs (10 targets, 8 receptions, 201 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns). Unfortunately, fantasy managers were met with frustration trying to navigate when to start or sit Davis in the years since.
2023 was a perfect example of the Gabe Davis roller coaster. The veteran receiver had five games with 20 or more fantasy points throughout the season and four weeks finishing as a top-12 receiver. Unfortunately, he also had nine weeks with fewer than 10 fantasy points, including five weeks where the receiver took a zero. The inconsistencies led Davis to finish as the WR53 in fantasy points per game (9.5).
If you can ride the wave (or play in best ball formats), Davis’ current WR63 price tag isn’t very reasonable. Over the last two seasons, Davis has averaged 87 targets, 46.5 receptions and 791 receiving yards per season. He’s averaged at least 9.0 yards per target and scored seven touchdowns in three of his first four seasons (the one where he didn’t, he scored six and averaged 8.7 yards per target). Davis is a deep-threat specialist who was also able to carve out a red-zone role with Buffalo.
There are also reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Davis will have a similar role with the Jaguars in 2024 after joining the team in free agency, especially if he was signed as a replacement for Zay Jones. Over the last two seasons, Jones finished with a 20.4% and 17.7% target share while operating primarily as the team’s deep threat on the outside. The veteran receiver struggled with injuries in 2023 but still averaged 7.4 targets per game during his tenure with the Jaguars.
One of the few things that went right for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense was deep passing. Lawrence finished third among quarterbacks in 20-yard attempts in 2023 (75), throwing for 1,045 yards and 11 touchdowns and three interceptions on those throws. His 96.7 PFF grade on deep throws was sixth in the NFL, but all of the quarterbacks ahead of him had 57 or fewer deep throw attempts. For context, Josh Allen had 76 deep throws with an 88.4 PFF grade and 933 yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions.
It’s understandable if fantasy managers don’t want to ride the Gabe Davis rollercoaster again in 2024 after years of inconsistencies and a perceived offensive downgrade. However, Davis lands in a situation where he’s guaranteed to be on the field (granted with plenty of target competition) with a quarterback that is at his best throwing the routes Davis can run.
Tight End
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 212.7, TE30
One of the biggest edges fantasy managers try to exploit is punting on the tight end position to try and find production late in the draft. Since the tight end position is so inconsistent in fantasy (and reliant on touchdowns), the idea is that finding a tight end who can score touchdowns is better than putting a premium pick in the position earlier in the drafts.
A player that is being overlooked on that front is Bills veteran tight end Dawson Knox.
The Bills overhauled their receiver room this offseason which makes the receiver room very ambiguous ahead of the 2024 season. Gone are Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, replaced by Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. Fantasy managers have flocked to Dalton Kincaid (TE5, 51.8 ADP) as the solution to the passing attack. Fantasy managers should also be taking a look at Dawson Knox given his ability to produce touchdowns during his time with Buffalo.
2023 wasn’t great for Knox as he navigated a broken wrist in Week 7 that sidelined him for five games. When he returned, his role in the offense had diminished significantly. Knox had just one game below a 60% snap share before the injury and just one game above that mark after. Still, Buffalo may need to lean on Knox in the red zone as the team navigates their new offensive personnel.
12.8% of Knox’s receptions have gone for a touchdown in his career. In 2021 and 2022, Knox caught 97 of 136 targets for 1,104 yards and 15 touchdowns with Buffalo. He was also given a significant contract (4-years, $52 million) during the 2022 season. He will continue to have a role on the offense even with Dalton Kincaid getting all of the slot snaps.
Is there a risk in drafting Dawson Knox? Of course. Joe Brady (the offensive coordinator) didn’t utilize him much after his injury. However, Knox could have a greater role in the offense with less talent in the receiving corps. If he can return to his touchdown-scoring ways, he certainly has appeal as the TE30 in the last round of fantasy drafts.
