Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
July is an exciting time for fantasy football. Sure, we have several weeks until training camps start and we start getting actionable information through beat reporters. But now is the time you will start seeing drafts start to pop up and excitement for the football season start to build.
Now that we have hit July, the ADP rumblings articles will appear weekly. Each article will look at the biggest riser and faller in fantasy drafts over the previous weeks and then identify a player at each position who is a player to target or avoid in fantasy drafts.
ADP data will come from Underdog Fantasy as it is the greatest ADP data set we have. Underdog has been hosting drafts for the 2024 season for months, which means it will have the most comprehensive ADP information that we can find. Be mindful that some ADPs may not reflect actual drafts given the importance of stacking in best ball formats.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (7/10)
Biggest Riser
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 172.5 (-7.3), TE19
There has been a ton of hype across social media naming Noah Fant as a tight end to target in the late round of fantasy drafts. That has pushed Fant’s ADP up 7.3 selections over the last week, pushing him up to the TE19 in fantasy drafts.
Fant has never been able to translate his phenomenal athleticism into NFL production consistently since being drafted in 2019. During his two seasons with the Seahawks, he’s totaled just 106 targets, 82 receptions, 900 yards and four touchdowns (all of which came in 2022). Fant has been an afterthought in the passing attack since joining Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade competing for targets with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The two ideas fueling Fant’s rise in fantasy are the complete lack of target competition at the position (Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson left in free agency) and the optimism that new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will be able to utilize the tight end in his high-volume passing attack. It certainly helps that the Seahawks brought Fant back on a 2-year, $21 million deal in free agency as well.
Fant should be on the field far more next season with his main competition a blocking tight end (Pharaoh Brown) and a 2024 fourth-round rookie (AJ Barner). It doesn’t take much for the tight end position to have fantasy relevance and Grubb utilized the position at the college level. In 2023, the tight end combination of Jack Westover and Devin Culp combined for 62 receptions, 441 yards and six touchdowns. That isn’t bad considering the duo were competing for touches with three receivers who went within the top 100 picks in the NFL draft.
The veteran tight end isn’t far removed from a TE17 season in 2022 thanks to four touchdowns scored. We expect the Seattle passing attack to improve and with that should come more opportunities for Fant to put up fantasy points. Drafting him as the TE19 is still a very reasonable price, but if he continues to climb then it is probably better to find an option with less target competition.
Biggest Faller
Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets
ADP: 175 (+4.6), WR78
Toward the end of June, reports surfaced that rookie receiver Malachi Corley was behind second-year receiver Xavier Gipson on the depth chart during OTAs. This news likely fueled the slight dip in Corley’s ADP, dropping him 4.6 spots in ADP and moving him from WR76 to WR78.
Corley was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft after three highly productive seasons at Western Kentucky. From 2021 to 2023, Corley totaled 253 receptions, 2,970 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns while doing most of his damage after the catch. The rookie receiver drew plenty of comps to Deebo Samuel throughout the draft process, which isn’t necessarily fair but does go to show how he was able to generate bigger gains after securing the football.
That said, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Corley would find himself behind a productive second-year player in the Jets offense. Rookies tend to take time to acclimate to the NFL and teams are more likely to give deference on early depth charts to players with experience. It seems very likely that Corley will be schemed touches early in his career with the hope that he can earn a bigger role in the offense as the season goes on.
As a whole, there may not be as many offensive plays for the Jets given the combination of Aaron Rodgers’ meticulous play style, a strong running game, and one of the best defenses in the NFL. A player like Corley may not get many opportunities, but he can make the most of the chances he gets. His WR78 price tag and 175 ADP are a bet worth taking, especially if the Jets play faster than we expect in 2024.
Quarterback
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
ADP: 112.0 (+2.4), QB12
Caleb Williams has seen his ADP tick up slightly over the last week, with a 2.4-spot drop in fantasy. Ultimately the move didn’t drop him out of the QB12 spot, but it did inch him within two selections of QB13 Brock Purdy.
Plenty has been written about Williams, his passing prowess in college and the fantastic team situation he will enter within the NFL. However, one aspect that is being overlooked is his ability to earn fantasy points as a runner as well.
By no means is Williams a rusher on the same level as Jayden Daniels, but he proved to be a tactical scrambler during his time in college. Over three seasons, Williams had 289 carries for 966 yards and 27 touchdowns (keep in mind quarterbacks lose rushing yards when sacked in college). The rookie quarterback has shown that he is committed to keeping his eyes downfield and completing passes (like C.J. Stroud) but also is willing to run for touchdowns when the situation calls for it, especially in goal-line situations.
Williams won’t need to scramble much in an offense featuring two 1,000-yard receivers (DJ Moore and Keenan Allen) and a top-10 selection at wide receiver (Rome Odunze). However, he has more than enough mobility to convert red zone pass attempts into rushing touchdowns if none of his receiving options open up, which isn’t discussed when looking at his fantasy profile.
If Williams can remain efficient as a passer AND add a rushing element in the red zone, then he should have no problem pushing for a top-10 fantasy finish in his first season given all the weapons at his disposal in Chicago.
Running Back
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
ADP: 106.4 (-2.5), RB30
Brian Robinson Jr. isn’t the flashiest player, but he’s quietly been productive on bad Washington offenses through his first two seasons. Robinson handled fewer carries in 2023 (178 vs. 205) but had nearly as many rushing yards (733 vs. 797) and had over double the touchdowns (5 vs. 2) as a rusher. His real growth came as a pass catcher.
Robinson had just nine receptions (on 12 targets) for 60 yards and a touchdown during his first season, frequently losing pass-catching work to Antonio Gibson (58 targets) and J.D. McKissic (40 targets). The Commanders didn’t bring back McKissic, which created a bigger role in the offense for Robinson in 2023. He responded by catching 36 of 43 targets for 368 yards and four touchdowns while competing with Antonio Gibson in the backfield (59 targets).
Gibson is gone now, leaving Robinson to compete with veteran free agent Austin Ekeler for pass-catching duties.
Yes, Ekeler will certainly be a thorn in Robinson’s side when it comes to the third-down role. Even in a bad year, Ekeler earned 74 targets with the Chargers in 2023. However, he is no longer the same explosive weapon as a pass catcher and struggled with injuries last season.
Robinson should command the early-down work and has shown his worth as a pass catcher in the receiving game. He’s now joined by a far less explosive complement in the backfield after splitting time with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic to start his career. Robinson is being selected as the RB30 in fantasy drafts, which is nine spots lower than his RB21 finish in 2023 (13.2 PPR points per game).
The veteran running back has continued to improve since entering the NFL and should have his best season in the NFL, especially with opposing defenses having to keep an eye on Jayden Daniels and his explosive rushing ability.
Wide Receiver
Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 172 (-6.3), WR77
Demarcus Robinson just missed being the highest riser over the last week in fantasy drafts, moving up 6.3 spots in ADP and climbing to the WR77 in fantasy drafts. There has been a recent push for Robinson stemming from his strong close to the 2023 season.
From Week 13 to Week 17 last season, Robinson had four games with an 85% or higher snap share (he had a 59% snap share in Week 13). During that stretch, he averaged 6.8 targets, 4.2 receptions and 63.8 receiving yards while scoring four touchdowns. He was the WR21 during that stretch, averaging 15.4 PPR points per game. Robinson dropped back down to a 39% snap share in Week 18’s game but had a significant role in the team’s playoff loss to the Lions (three receptions on six targets for 44 yards on an 86% snap share).
The idea behind drafting Robinson is the belief that somebody has to emerge as the WR3 for the Rams after the team led the NFL in 11 personnel (93.1%) during the 2023 season. The Rams chose to not make any significant additions to the wide receiver room during the offseason and will likely be without Tyler Higbee for most of the season while he recovers from his late-season knee injury.
That leaves Robinson and Tutu Atwell as the most likely players to take on a greater role in three-receiver sets. Both had stretches last season where they had fantasy production and neither player will cost a premium pick in fantasy drafts.
Robinson is worth a shot at his current ADP, especially if Sean McVay saw enough last season to believe he can provide a solid presence operating next to Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in the passing attack.
Tight End
Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders
ADP: 175.9 (+3.7), TE20
The presence of Zach Ertz (and his familiarity with Kliff Kingsbury’s offense) has started to have an impact on Ben Sinnott’s ADP with the rookie tight end dropping 3.7 spots over the last week. He’s currently going off the board as the TE20.
The Commanders took Sinnott in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft after two seasons of modest production with Kansas State. Sinnott had 80 receptions for 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns over his final two seasons with the Wildcats. Sinnott doesn’t have the best size for an NFL tight end (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) but he has good speed (4.68 40-yard dash), a 98th percentile burst score and a 95th percentile agility score, per Player Profiler. There is also something to be said by the fact that Sinnott was the first skill player drafted to complement Jayden Daniels in Washington.
It seems likely that the rookie tight end will be used in a multitude of ways, lining up on the line of scrimmage, in the slot, as a wing, or even in the backfield. That should allow the team to maximize his skillset to get mismatches.
This rookie tight-end class isn’t nearly as talented as last season’s, but Sinnott can be an early contributor to fantasy football. His TE20 price tag makes a lot of sense in a Washington passing attack that features very little outside of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. There is a very realistic chance that he finishes third on the team in targets with an outside chance of a top-two finish.
