Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone, which means we can start shifting our energy into fantasy football. For dynasty managers, that means participating in rookie drafts. The end of the draft also means best ball season is in full swing. Redraft fantasy managers will be selecting their teams in no time.
All summer, we will be running a weekly article at FTN Fantasy tracking the players to target, players to avoid, and the ADP trends throughout the draft season. Our first edition will utilize FTN’s Underdog ADP tool to look at players to target as a value based on early season ADP.
As a reminder, there are some differences between best ball ADP and redraft ADP. Best ball players are targeting stacks, which does push some ADP out of whack. However, it is probably the most accurate view we have of ADP at this point since Underdog has been holding drafts for months.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (5/1)
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 164.6 (QB23)
The Titans organization has undergone a transition period over the last year, moving on from head coach Mike Vrabel and veteran players like Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. The Titans hired former Bengals’ offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their new coach and immediately went to work, upgrading their offense.
Tennessee added center Lloyd Cushenberry, running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency and then upgraded their offensive line in the draft, grabbing JC Latham with the seventh pick. Every single one of these moves was made with one goal in mind: to give Will Levis the tools he needs to show if he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Levis got an opportunity to play in 2023 and showed some flashes. In nine starts, Levis completed 58% of his passes for 1,808 yards and eight touchdowns with four interceptions. From a fantasy perspective, Levis was very inconsistent. He had nearly as many games with fewer than 10 fantasy points (4) as he did games with 10 or more (5).
However, Levis was working with a defensive-minded head coach in a run-heavy offense behind a terrible offensive line. If the Titans choose to pass more (which their offseason moves suggest) then Levis can provide a solid fantasy floor. The quarterback has seen the situation improve around him and now gets a creative playcaller who can design an offense to his strengths.
Levis is going off the board as the QB23 in fantasy drafts, which is reasonable given his struggles in his first season. However, this ranking fails to account for the great situation Levis will find himself with a stronger offensive line, a strong WR1 (DeAndre Hopkins), an upgraded WR2 (Calvin Ridley) and two good pass catchers out of the backfield (Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears).
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
ADP: 72.6 (RB19)
Don’t be shocked if we enter another season with David Montgomery not getting the level of respect his production suggests he should. Montgomery finished as the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season (15.2) and ended the season with 197.2 fantasy points despite missing three games on the season.
Based on early ADP, fantasy managers are flocking to the explosive playmaking ability of Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4, 11.9 ADP) after his boom performances, especially during the games Montgomery was injured. What is being ignored is the fact that Detroit will once again run a split backfield, with neither Montgomery nor Gibbs taking on a considerably larger workload than the other. Their usage down the stretch of the season further illustrates that fact.
Montgomery returned to the lineup after Detroit’s Week 9 bye. In those nine games, Montgomery averaged 13.9 carries and 70 rushing yards per game while scoring seven touchdowns. During that same stretch, Gibbs handled 11.8 carries and 60.7 rushing yards while scoring one more touchdown.
The fact is, Montgomery and Gibbs will both have roles in one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL that also features one of the best offensive lines in the league. Since neither player will overtake the backfield without an injury, it is probably best to target the one going later in fantasy drafts to serve as an RB2 (or a zero-RB lead back). In this case, that would be Montgomery.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 103.5 (RB31)
There was a chance the Raiders would target the running back position in the NFL draft after letting Josh Jacobs walk in free agency. However, Las Vegas opted to address other holes on their team and kicked the can on running back until the sixth round, when they selected New Hampshire’s Dylan Laube.
Laube was highly productive in college but profiles as more of a complementary receiving back in the NFL than a workhorse. That means White is poised to take control of the Raiders backfield on the early downs and in goal-line situations.
White was given a similar chance during the 2024 season when Josh Jacobs went down with an injury. In four games as a starter, he averaged 21 carries per game in Weeks 15-18. In that stretch, the second-year running back had two games over 100 rushing yards and three where he surpassed 4.0 yards per carry. He functioned as a workhorse running back, handling over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps to close the year.
The Raiders will undoubtedly want a bit more balance in 2024, but White was the draft’s big winner in terms of the team adding competition. He will enter the 2024 season as the favorite to lead the Raiders’ run-heavy attack with either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell under center. He’s being priced entirely too low as the RB31 in early fantasy drafts and should see his ADP skyrocket as the summer goes on.
Target him while he’s at a discount.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 47.5 (WR30)
Few rookie receivers made a bigger impact in 2023 than Baltimore’s Zay Flowers. The rookie finished his first season with 108 targets, 77 receptions, 858 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Those marks were good for 12.9 fantasy points per game, a WR30 overall finish (minimum 10 games played). Flowers was frequently schemed touches and was used as a dynamic weapon down the field, roles that should grow now that he’s got a year of NFL experience under his belt.
Flowers emerged as the team’s WR1, especially with Mark Andrews sidelined with an injury for seven games. Andrews will be healthy again in 2024, but the team let their second-leading receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) walk in free agency. That leaves Flowers competing with Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor and Devontez Walker for touches on the perimeter.
There was early speculation that Flowers could miss time this season with a pending accusation of domestic assault, but the NFL concluded their investigation by stating Flowers wouldn’t face any league discipline. If Flowers can take the next step as a receiver, then he should easily surpass his WR30 ADP in early fantasy drafts.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 43.3 (WR27)
There has been a lot of speculation this offseason that Tee Higgins would be traded as he’s searching for a new contract. And while that possibility remains on the table, it makes little sense for the Bengals to ship out their second wide receiver while they are firmly entrenched in their Super Bowl window.
That means that for all intents and purposes, we need to operate under the belief that Higgins will be in Cincinnati’s high-volume passing attack again in 2024. In that case, he’s available at a very reasonable WR27 price tag.
The Bengals’ offense struggled as a whole in 2023 thanks to injuries, especially within the passing attack. Cincinnati got just 10 games out of Joe Burrow before he suffered a season-ending thumb injury. Higgins played just 11 games thanks to rib and hamstring injuries. Despite the lack of games (and targets from a lesser quarterback), he still averaged 6.3 targets and 54.7 receiving yards per game. He also scored five touchdowns on the season, including three in his last three games.
Higgins is also one of the safer picks that can be made in fantasy this season, especially in the fourth round of fantasy drafts. If the veteran receiver remains in Cincinnati, he will be functioning as a WR2 in a pass-heavy offense helmed by one of the best quarterbacks in the league. That worked out well in 2021 and 2022 when he had over 2,120 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. At worst, Higgins is traded to a new team that values him as a WR1 and earns the targets that come with that role.
