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2023 NFL Team Offseason Roundup: Buffalo Bills

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It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our .

It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Buffalo Bills. 

 

2023 NFL Team Roundup: Buffalo Bills

2022 Results

Record: 13-3; 1st in the AFC East
Season End: Lost 27-10 versus the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills Offseason Summary

Draft 

1.25: , TE, Utah
2.59: , G, Florida
3.91: , LB, Tulane
5.150: , WR, Florida
7.230: , G, Ole Miss
7.262: , CB, Oregon State

, TE (1.25)

’s “tight end” position labels him as more redundant behind a capable starter in than an equivalent wide receiver draft pick might have been. But Kincaid is a relatively small move tight end who will likely run routes more than he blocks. Tight ends have steeper learning curves than most other positions, but Kincaid could hit his professional ceiling more quickly than more versatile prospects and find relevance in fantasy because of it.

, G (2.59)

and have a better chance of replacing departing Pro Bowler than you might expect. Saffold belied that recognition with a modest 1.5%  in 2022 and will be 35 years old for the 2023 season.

, WR (5.150)

is relatively unheralded as a Day 3 draft pick. But he has only unproven options in , and between him and a starting role in three-receiver sets.

Additions

Free agent signings: G , WR , EDGE , S , G , WR , RB , T , RB , QB , LB

, RB

Damien Harris Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Team Outlook

may not return to his 2021 standard of 15 touchdown runs in as many starts next to a battering ram in at quarterback. But the former Patriots back is dramatically bigger than second-round incumbent (5-foot-11, 190 pounds, 26.5 BMI) and may see a preferred and fantasy-friendly red zone role.

, G

is one of the team’s two major offensive line additions that aim to improve on a 71%  that was just 22nd in football.

, WR

earned his 2019 All-Pro award as a punt and kick returner. But he has also finished top five among receivers with 50 or more catches with 6.67 average yards after the catch the last four seasons and increased his offensive ceiling by pairing with .

Departures

LB , G , RB , WR , G , T , TE , WR , QB , RB , G , WR , WR , S

, RB

was a frequent public punching bag for the Bills’ often scheme-related rushing problems. But he bested a 20.0% broken tackle rate in three of his four seasons and could be a bigger loss than many expect.

, WR

never realized the offensive potential his speed offered him, but the departures of him and teammate open up 78 targets and a primary slot receiver role when the Bills play 11 personnel.

Leslie Frazier, DC

Leslie Frazier voluntarily left his defensive coordinator position more than a month after the end of the season. That timing fans speculation of some team turmoil — even if Frazier  with an interview that detailed his efforts to become a head coach. Sean McDermott came up as a defensive coordinator and seems as equipped as any head coach to oversee a defense without a coordinator. But Frazier did lead his defense to top 12 finishes  the last five seasons.

 

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Outlook

The three most interesting Bills fantasy options:

James Cook, RB

carries workload concerns at his size and with fewer than 120 attempts in his five college and professional seasons. But he could still enjoy a 2023 fantasy breakout with breakaway scores and receptions. Cook led backs with 75 or more carries with a 12.4% explosive run rate in 2022. And he became the team’s No. 1 receiving back in December and January, besting with 12 versus 6 catches and 63 versus 61 pass routes.

Josh Allen, QB

Josh Allen Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Team Outlook

Sean McDermott  last offseason that would run less in 2022. But Allen set new career highs with 124 carries and 12 carries within 5 yards of the end zone. I wouldn’t bet on any Allen fantasy regression until I saw the team pivot its play-calling.

Khalil Shakir, WR

fell dramatically short of the 201-yard, four-touchdown outburst that motivated ’ 2022 sleeper popularity. But Shakir did catch half as many passes (5 versus 10) for more than half as many yards (91 versus 161) in a pair of playoff games as he did in his entire rookie regular season and could play next to and Davis in 11 personnel this year.

2023 Outlook

Wins Over/Under: 10.5 (-140)

The Bills have taken the AFC East baton from the New England Patriots with four straight playoff berths and three straight divisional crowns. But the Patriots owed as much of their extended run of dominance to ’s consistent health as his consistent excellence. And has yet to back off an aggressive style of play that draws contact that many of the other dual-threat quarterbacks like and do not see. Allen looks like Superman with his 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame. But so did before a shoulder injury in his sixth pro season spurred a dramatic decline in his play and a premature end of his career. A healthy Allen with the Bills talent and infrastructure may be a lock for 11 or more wins, even with improved intra-division competition from ’s Dolphins and ’ Jets. But a -140 vig is a heavy bet on at least 14 Allen starts. I prefer to skip that action and bet on the Bills to make the Super Bowl a year after they were hyped to do so and after a string of odd and uneven results in playoff games — most notably the 13-second Chiefs loss — colored the public playoff expectations for a team that has finished top four in overall DVOA over much bigger samples of games each of the last three seasons.

Previous Second-Year Scouting Report: Skyy Moore Next 2023 NFL Team Offseason Roundup: New York Jets
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