Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Buffalo Bills.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Buffalo Bills
2022 Results
Record: 13-3; 1st in the AFC East
Season End: Lost 27-10 versus the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills Offseason Summary
Draft
1.25: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
2.59: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
3.91: Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane
5.150: Justin Shorter, WR, Florida
7.230: Nick Broeker, G, Ole Miss
7.262: Alex Austin, CB, Oregon State
Dalton Kincaid, TE (1.25)
Dalton Kincaid’s “tight end” position labels him as more redundant behind a capable starter in Dawson Knox than an equivalent wide receiver draft pick might have been. But Kincaid is a relatively small move tight end who will likely run routes more than he blocks. Tight ends have steeper learning curves than most other positions, but Kincaid could hit his professional ceiling more quickly than more versatile prospects and find relevance in fantasy because of it.
O’Cyrus Torrence, G (2.59)
O’Cyrus Torrence and Connor McGovern have a better chance of replacing departing Pro Bowler Rodger Saffold than you might expect. Saffold belied that recognition with a modest 1.5% blown run block rate in 2022 and will be 35 years old for the 2023 season.
Justin Shorter, WR (5.150)
Justin Shorter is relatively unheralded as a Day 3 draft pick. But he has only unproven options in Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield between him and a starting role in three-receiver sets.
Additions
Free agent signings: G Connor McGovern, WR Deonte Harty, EDGE Poona Ford, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Damien Harris, T Brandon Shell, RB Latavius Murray, QB Kyle Allen, LB Travin Howard
Damien Harris, RB
Damien Harris may not return to his 2021 standard of 15 touchdown runs in as many starts next to a battering ram in Josh Allen at quarterback. But the former Patriots back is dramatically bigger than second-round incumbent James Cook (5-foot-11, 190 pounds, 26.5 BMI) and may see a preferred and fantasy-friendly red zone role.
Connor McGovern is one of the team’s two major offensive line additions that aim to improve on a 71% run block win rate that was just 22nd in football.
Deonte Harty, WR
Deonte Harty earned his 2019 All-Pro award as a punt and kick returner. But he has also finished top five among receivers with 50 or more catches with 6.67 average yards after the catch the last four seasons and increased his offensive ceiling by pairing with Josh Allen.
Departures
LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Rodger Saffold, RB Taiwan Jones, WR Jake Kumerow, G Bobby Hart, T Justin Murray, TE Tommy Sweeney, WR Cole Beasley, QB Case Keenum, RB Devin Singletary, G Greg Van Roten, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Isaiah McKenzie, S Jaquan Johnson
Devin Singletary, RB
Devin Singletary was a frequent public punching bag for the Bills’ often scheme-related rushing problems. But he bested a 20.0% broken tackle rate in three of his four seasons and could be a bigger loss than many expect.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR
Isaiah McKenzie never realized the offensive potential his speed offered him, but the departures of him and teammate Jamison Crowder open up 78 targets and a primary slot receiver role when the Bills play 11 personnel.
Leslie Frazier, DC
Leslie Frazier voluntarily left his defensive coordinator position more than a month after the end of the season. That timing fans speculation of some team turmoil — even if Frazier dissipated it with an interview that detailed his efforts to become a head coach. Sean McDermott came up as a defensive coordinator and seems as equipped as any head coach to oversee a defense without a coordinator. But Frazier did lead his defense to top 12 finishes in DVOA the last five seasons.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Bills fantasy options:
James Cook, RB
James Cook carries workload concerns at his size and with fewer than 120 attempts in his five college and professional seasons. But he could still enjoy a 2023 fantasy breakout with breakaway scores and receptions. Cook led backs with 75 or more carries with a 12.4% explosive run rate in 2022. And he became the team’s No. 1 receiving back in December and January, besting Devin Singletary with 12 versus 6 catches and 63 versus 61 pass routes.
Josh Allen, QB
Sean McDermott told reporters last offseason that Josh Allen would run less in 2022. But Allen set new career highs with 124 carries and 12 carries within 5 yards of the end zone. I wouldn’t bet on any Allen fantasy regression until I saw the team pivot its play-calling.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Khalil Shakir fell dramatically short of the 201-yard, four-touchdown outburst that motivated Gabe Davis’ 2022 sleeper popularity. But Shakir did catch half as many passes (5 versus 10) for more than half as many yards (91 versus 161) in a pair of playoff games as he did in his entire rookie regular season and could play next to Stefon Diggs and Davis in 11 personnel this year.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 10.5 (-140)
The Bills have taken the AFC East baton from the New England Patriots with four straight playoff berths and three straight divisional crowns. But the Patriots owed as much of their extended run of dominance to Tom Brady’s consistent health as his consistent excellence. And Josh Allen has yet to back off an aggressive style of play that draws contact that many of the other dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson do not see. Allen looks like Superman with his 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame. But so did Cam Newton before a shoulder injury in his sixth pro season spurred a dramatic decline in his play and a premature end of his career. A healthy Allen with the Bills talent and infrastructure may be a lock for 11 or more wins, even with improved intra-division competition from Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins and Aaron Rodgers’ Jets. But a -140 vig is a heavy bet on at least 14 Allen starts. I prefer to skip that action and bet on the Bills to make the Super Bowl a year after they were hyped to do so and after a string of odd and uneven results in playoff games — most notably the 13-second Chiefs loss — colored the public playoff expectations for a team that has finished top four in overall DVOA over much bigger samples of games each of the last three seasons.
