Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Everyone wants their fantasy rookies to come in and dominate right from the jump, but that’s much easier said than done. It’s rare for NFL first-timers to come in and dominate right away, and the few that do provide extreme value to their fantasy managers.
So who from the 2023 class has the ability to perform right out of the gates? In this article, I’ve highlighted five rookies who have the ability to do so. Fantasy managers in need of some immediate production should keep an eye on these five players and target them wherever they can in their rookie drafts if immediate production is a priority.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
This one should be pretty obvious. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know by now that Bijan Robinson is poised to set the running back position on fire immediately upon entering the league. Even in superflex formats where quarterbacks typically dominate the top of rookie rankings, Robinson is going to be the first player drafted in 99% of all rookie drafts.
Running backs don’t get drafted in the first round very often any more, and when they do it’s a fantastic sign for their fantasy value. Robinson is not only expected to go in the first round, but there’s a strong chance he’s a top 10 pick as well.
When you look at his profile, Robinson’s got it all. He’s big, fast, agile, powerful, a good pass-catcher, the list goes on. Robinson has all the traits you could possibly want from a three-down running back, he’s one of the best prospects we’ve seen in years, and he won’t waste any time posting elite numbers as soon as he steps onto the field.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Last year, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were arguably the two most impressive rookie receivers. But before those two were drafted, they were outproduced by a 19-year-old during their final seasons at Ohio State. That 19-year-old was now-incoming rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who like Wilson and Olave, shouldn’t take long acclimating to the NFL.
Smith-Njigba may not have the same top gear his fellow OSU receivers did, but his change-of-direction and route-running abilities are elite. He’s a player who can dice up defenders in either zone or man coverage, and it won’t take long before he becomes his quarterback’s best friend at the NFL level. His ceiling may not be at the Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson level, but Smith-Njigba’s a player who could easily come into the NFL, catch 100-plus balls as a rookie and continue to do so for the next decade.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
Yep, you read that right. While it may seem hard to imagine, a second running back out of Texas finds his name on this list. Roschon Johnson is one of the rare players who finds himself in a situation where the talent ahead of him on the depth chart in the NFL will likely be worse than what he experienced in college.
Demanding touches while backing up Bijan Robinson was no easy task for Johnson. In his final season at Texas, Johnson logged just 93 carries compared to Robinson’s 258, but both backs were wildly efficient as they averaged 6.0 and 6.1 YPC respectively. While it’s unlikely Johnson comes into the NFL and steps into a workhorse role after never doing so in college, he has a skillset that should easily translate to an NFL backfield.
Johnson’s a big – 6-foot-0, 220 pounds – and powerful back who can play a key role in a split backfield as early as his rookie season. We know there are NFL teams who love to have bigger backs on their roster, and it’s easy to envision Johnson coming into the NFL right away and playing a Brian Robinson or AJ Dillon type of role in an offense. While this may not be the role with the highest ceiling, Johnson has the requisite traits to come in and make an immediate impact on an NFL offense.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
It’s rare for a tight end to contribute early in their careers, but Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame feels like someone who could break that trend. His raw stats aren’t eye popping – 67 catches, 809 yards, and 9 TDs in his final season – but those numbers don’t tell the full story. These past two seasons, Mayer essentially acted as the Irish’ entire passing attack as he demanded a ridiculous 31% (!) target share – a mark that’s practically unheard of for tight ends.
While he doesn’t ooze athleticism like many other highly sought after tight ends, Mayer has everything else you’d want in a prospect. He’s an early declare, dominated as an underclassmen, has the positional versatility to line up in line or out wide, and catches just about everything that’s thrown in his general vicinity. Maybe most importantly, Mayer is a fantastic blocker. While his prowess in this area won’t score him any fantasy points, it will get him on the field early in his career thus increasing his overall opportunity.
The draft is always a crapshoot – especially at the tight end position – but targeting Mayer in drafts feels like a no brainer. He may not be the sexiest pick you can make, but Mayer feels like as safe of a bet as you can make to finish as a TE1 for the next decade.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The last name on our list is likely one that comes as a surprise. While Richardson is considered “a project” by many, if he receives the draft capital he’s expected to get (early first round), whoever selects him will likely want him on the field early, and the fantasy points will follow suit if he does.
He won’t come into the league as a polished prospect, but from a fantasy perspective, that may not matter. Rushing production as the quarterback position is essentially a cheat code, and Richardson has arguably the highest upside as a rusher we’ve seen from a prospect seen since Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton. Last year, two quarterbacks – Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields – eclipsed the 150-carry mark and both posted fantastic fantasy seasons. It would be foolish for Richardson’s next coach not to use him in a similar manner, and those rush attempts will be worth their weight in gold for fantasy managers.
This may wind up being a situation similar to Fields where Richardson sits behind a vet like Andy Dalton right out of the gates and takes over a few weeks into the season. If you want to say that means he’s disqualified from the “contribute right away” category, I get that. As soon as he gets the green light though, the fantasy numbers are going to come in bunches.
