NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The conclusion of the 2023 NFL Draft and the start of rookie camps give us a natural opportunity to begin assessing NFL rosters to start preparing for the upcoming fantasy football season. While there aren’t really any leagues that account for offensive line play (yet!), understanding the teams that have a solid unit in the trenches can help fantasy managers make big decisions in their drafts.
This offseason, FTN has already published a full set of offensive line rankings for the upcoming NFL season, but this article will dig down into teams in the NFL that are winners and losers based on the moves they’ve made before the 2023 season. Some teams were able to successfully target free agents and utilize draft picks to bolster their offensive lines while others were forced to make hard decisions based on age, performance and the salary cap. Check out 2023’s offensive line winners and losers below.
2023 Offseason Offensive Line Winners
Chicago Bears
The Bears were bad by design in 2022, and no position group exemplified that mantra more than their offensive line. According to FTN’s advanced QB stats, Justin Fields was pressured on 20.19% of his dropbacks, and the Bears were fourth in the NFL in sacks allowed. The Bears were able to establish two long-term pieces of their offensive line (left tackle Braxton Jones and guard Teven Jenkins), but everything around them was a mess. This unit needed a talent overhaul.
Chicago came into the offseason with a plan and seemed to execute it. The Bears prioritized adding former Titan Nate Davis to give a veteran presence at guard after he finished as PFF’s 17th-ranked guard (14 pressures and three sacks on 297 pass-blocking snaps). Additionally, the team ultimately moved back from the first overall pick to the 10th overall pick to secure the right tackle of the future in Darnell Wright. Wright has a reputation as a mauler in the run game, but he was excellent in pass protection (0 sacks in 507 pass-blocking attempts) last season. These moves will allow Chicago to further fortify their line by moving interior lineman Cody Whitehair back to center.
In order to truly assess Fields’ future, the Bears had to find a way to protect him. Adding a veteran guard and the best right tackle in the draft should allow Fields the time he needs to show what he can do as a passer, not just a runner in an important third season.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos thought they’d be a Super Bowl contender after trading for Russell Wilson last season. However, the offense didn’t gel thanks to a combination of shoddy playcalling and terrible offensive line play, resulting in the team finishing with a bottom-five record with no first-round pick to show for it. Denver made a significant coaching upgrade (Sean Payton) and invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason to try and provide stability for Wilson going forward.
The Broncos offensive line entered the offseason with two above-average pieces: left tackle Garett Bolles (one sack allowed and 10 pressures in 207 pass-pro snaps in 2022) and right guard Quinn Meinerz (PFF’s sixth-ranked guard in 2022) and little else. The team chose to fortify the right tackle position in free agency, adding top tackle Mike McGlinchey and replacing long-time left guard Dalton Risner with former Baltimore Raven Ben Powers. Both players struggled at times in 2022, but they are still upgrades compared to Denver’s 2022 unit.
Denver still has to figure out the center position (projected starter Lloyd Cushenberry was PFF’s 32nd-ranked center out of 36 eligible players), but they’ve at least surrounded him with the talent to try and mitigate his limitations. Overall, the Broncos hope the upgrade in their coaching staff and the offensive line will provide Russ with the time he needs to cook (and the ability to justify the large cost of acquiring him a season ago).
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been struggling with their offensive line for years. The team tried to upgrade their talent on the interior last season, adding center Mason Cole and right guard James Daniels. Ultimately, these upgrades helped (38 sacks surrendered last season), but more work needed to be done.
The Steelers nabbed the top free agent guard, former Eagle Isaac Seumalo, to upgrade 2022 starter Kevin Dotson. Seumalo finished as PFF’s 10th-ranked center in 2022 and has allowed just 19 sacks and 126 pressures in 2,608 career pass-blocking snaps. Additionally, the team traded up in the draft to add a cornerstone left tackle, Georgia’s Broderick Jones. Jones is a raw left tackle due to his lack of experience at the position, but he has elite athleticism for his size. That flashed consistently throughout his 2022 season at Georgia and allowed him to finish with 0 sacks and just nine pressures surrendered in 470 pass-blocking snaps in his first full season at the position.
Pittsburgh fortified the left side of their offensive line this season which potentially gives them above-average players at four of five positions (right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor is still a work in progress). That can only help improve the running lanes for Najee Harris while providing stronger pass protection that will allow Kenny Pickett to further improve during his second season in the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had a solid offensive line last season, but the team struggled mightily with injuries. Of their projected starting lineup, only right guard Will Hernandez and right tackle Kelvin Beachum played in at least 13 games last season. Injuries across the unit ultimately caused the team to surrender 46 sacks, ninth most in the NFL last year.
Arizona made a concerted effort to improve their offensive line during the 2023 offseason. The Cardinals brought back Hernandez and targeted former Browns reserve Hjalte Froholdt (61.4 PFF grade on 591 snaps in 2022) to replace Hudson at center. However, the biggest move the team made came in the draft, where the Cardinals traded back (and then back up) to select Ohio State left tackle Paris Johnson. in the draft. Johnson doesn’t have a ton of experience at left tackle (just one season as the starter at that position) but is an extremely fluid mover who allowed just 14 pressures on 449 pass-blocking snaps in 2022. Johnson may be forced inside to start his career (similar to the Cowboy’s 2022 first-round pick Tyler Smith), but he will undoubtedly be the team’s future at left tackle.
Arizona needs to stay healthy up front next season, but they added solid pieces to their offensive line this offseason and are a far more talented unit coming into the 2023 season.
2023 Offseason Offensive Line Losers
New York Jets
The Jets were rumored to be targeting tackle help early in the 2023 draft. Mekhi Becton hasn’t been healthy in two seasons, which forced the team to rely on a 37-year-old left tackle (Duane Brown) and a developmental Day 3 rookie (Max Mitchell) on the book ends. The Jets had just one player (right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker) finish inside the top 50 at their position last season based on PFF’s grading. Unfortunately, the Steelers jumped the Jets in the draft to take Broderick Jones, forcing the Jets to hope for Becton’s health and development from Mitchell (PFF’s 71st-ranked tackle in 2022).
The Jets did add a center in the second round of the draft draft (Wisconsin’s Joe Tippman), but they will need every other position along the offensive line to take a step forward during their competitive window with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Getting a healthy season from Becton would be a huge help (and having Duane Brown as depth improves their ability to replace him on the fly), but this team could have used a difference-maker in the draft. Unfortunately, they just didn’t get that done.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have had the benefit of rolling out one of the most talented offensive lines in the NFL over the last two seasons to provide Patrick Mahomes time in the pocket to make big plays. However, the Chiefs were hit hard by free agency this season, losing both starting tackles (Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie) to free agency. Kansas City proactively targeted one replacement in the free agency pool (former Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor) and snagged veteran left tackle Donovan Smith in free agency after the draft.
Both Taylor and Smith struggled in 2022, finishing back-to-back in PFF’s tackle grades (65th and 66th). The duo combined to allow 11 sacks and 47 pressures last season on their former teams. Additionally, neither player finished with a PFF run-blocking grade above 41.0. While these are two veteran options (that will be greatly helped by the strong interior offensive line of Kansas City), both players represent a downgrade on the bookends of the offensive line. Mahomes may be getting more pressure in his face than he’s used to in 2023 thanks to the downgrade in talent in front of him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers had one of the most imposing offensive lines throughout Tom Brady’s tenure with the team. However, this unit started to show cracks last season and is arguably the worst offensive line heading into the 2023 season. Long-time left tackle starter Donovan Smith was let go by the team, and while he struggled for most of last season, the team did not have a plug-and-play option available to replace him. Tristan Wirfs figures to get a shot at left tackle, but moving the best offensive lineman around only makes another space weaker. Additionally, the team traded starting right guard Shaq Mason early in the off-season, providing them with another hole to fill.
The Buccaneers jettisoning expensive veterans makes sense with Brady’s retirement, but outside of Tristan Wirfs (and a healthy Ryan Jensen), this team lacks talent. Veteran free agent guard Matt Feiler ranked as PFF’s 61st guard in 2022. 2022 second-round pick Luke Goedeke struggled to acclimate from the MAC in college to NFL-level competition, finishing as PFF’s 70th-ranked guard (out of 77 eligible players) and is now expected to kick out to tackle. The team invested a 2023 second-round pick in North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch to play guard, but there will likely be the same learning curve for him that Goedeke experienced last season.
The Buccaneers took a bandage approach to an offseason that left a giant gash in terms of veteran experience and continuity along their offensive line, making them arguably the biggest loser (and potentially worst offensive line) in the league heading into 2023.
