Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL preseason has officially come to a close, and NFL teams are beginning the process of cutting down to 53 players. We are less than two weeks until kickoff at the start of the NFL season.
ADP has never been more fluid than at this time of the offseason. Injuries are popping up in practices and games, and players are being moved in trades as teams try to figure out their needs ahead of the season. More and more players are drafting fantasy rosters, which is causing massive shifts in ADP as the season nears. Below you will find the biggest ADP movers over the last week on Underdog Fantasy.
As always, check out FTN Fantasy’s new ADP exploitation tool to see the current trends on Underdog Fantasy. This will help drafters understand the players who are providing value to draft or players to avoid because their ADP is at a current high.
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
The announcement of Sam Howell as Washington’s starting quarterback pushed the second-year quarterback up 17.7 spots in Underdog ADP over the last week. Of course, a solid showing in Washington’s first two preseason games didn’t hurt either.
In the first two weeks of the preseason, Howell completed 28-of-37 passes for 265 yards and three touchdowns while adding four carries for 25 yards. He looked to be in command of the offense and at the very least showed the ability to extend plays to get the ball to the strong receiver duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. It seems like just yesterday that Howell was one of the favorites to be the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 draft class. Unfortunately, most of his major weapons at the University of North Carolina graduated and went pro a year before him, which caused his draft stock to fall.
Betting on day-three quarterbacks in the NFL draft is an exceptionally dangerous game in fantasy since the teams that drafted them can easily move on. However, few fifth-round quarterbacks also produced 10,283 passing yards and 92 touchdowns with just 23 interceptions in three collegiate seasons (while adding 1,009 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns). There is some risk in drafting Howell in fantasy given the presence of veteran backup Jacoby Brissett on the roster, but he is still going in a very reasonable place (even with the ADP jump) to provide solid QB2 weeks during the fantasy season.
Deon Jackson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Jonathan Taylor trade rumors have drafters pushing up all of the Colts running backs as fantasy managers try to exploit obvious value from an ambiguous situation. This week, the biggest winner of the ADP roulette was third-year running back Deon Jackson.
With Taylor’s situation in flux, and Zack Moss nursing an injury, Jackson has a chance to be the early-down back in a run-heavy offense. Jackson has carved out a solid role in Indianapolis over the last two seasons after being an UDFA in 2021, carrying the ball 81 times for 267 yards and two touchdowns while adding 30 receptions on 34 targets for 209 yards and a touchdown. However, he hasn’t been very efficient in those two seasons, averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry in his career.
It is impossible to know what the Colts backfield will look like just two weeks before the start of the NFL season. Indianapolis could refuse to trade Taylor, rely on Moss (when healthy) or attack one of many veteran running back options that are still free agents waiting for an opportunity. While Jackson has as good of a chance as anybody on the current roster to see his workload increase should Taylor be moved, that doesn’t make him a player worth drafting outside the 18th round as a lottery ticket (his current ADP is 197.7 after a 14.9 increase the last week).
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
A hamstring injury will likely cost Jerry Jeudy some games to start the 2023 season. His ADP reacted accordingly to this news, falling 14.6 spots over the last week.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, an injury to Jeudy isn’t something we’re surprised with. Since 2021, Jeudy has missed eight games due to injuries (although most of his injuries revolve around ankle sprains). Soft tissue injuries are notoriously fickle and have a tendency to linger, which makes this specific injury more of a concern, especially with how close it happened to the regular season.
Many expected Jeudy to emerge as the top target in Denver’s revamped offense this season. Realistically, he still can, assuming this injury heals quickly and allows him to get back onto the field in a reasonable amount of time. While there is some inherent risk in drafting Jeudy, he can now be taken as a value if you believe in his role in this offense and don’t believe this injury will hurt his 2023 production.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was flashing consistently throughout the preseason, catching six passes for 83 yards in limited playing time. The rookie receiver had clearly carved out a significant role in a Seattle passing offense that many expect to continue to ascend after a surprising 2022 season.
Unfortunately, those hopes were abruptly dashed after Pete Carroll announced that Smith-Njigba was forced to undergo wrist surgery after suffering a fracture in the team’s second preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys. While there isn’t much reason to believe that this will cost him a significant chunk of his rookie season, it does cost him valuable reps in practice and potentially some time in the regular season should the injury be on the slower side of healing.
Ultimately, the players who were already drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba will love to take advantage of his ADP discount since a fractured wrist has very little chance of reoccurring again throughout the season. However, the fantasy players who struggled with his ADP (especially compared to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) will now have a chance to get a very good player at a depressed value.
This injury may slow the rookie wide receiver down to start his career, but once completely healthy, he should have no problem resuming his role as the team’s slot receiver in three wide receiver sets this season.
