Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
NFL training camps are officially underway, and the 2023 season is just around the corner. Expect fantasy football ADP to swing wildly over the coming weeks thanks to highlight videos on Twitter (the term Twitter will be grandfathered into my articles) and news reports of injuries and running back holdouts that circulate on the news cycle.
For those who have been steadily drafting this summer, this time of year can be tumultuous with players missing practice or being carted off practice fields. For those just getting into the draft swing, ADPs are constantly moving, and players are being pushed up and drafted well above where they’ve been going all summer.
Check out some of the biggest movers (and sleepers) to target in fantasy drafts as we get into the best part of the year. As always, ADP is from Underdog Fantasy, a best ball site that can differ from traditional platforms due to the importance of stacking players on teams.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White was an absolute nonfactor in fantasy during his rookie season with the Raiders, carrying the ball just 17 times for 70 yards. The rookie was seldom needed due to the health and high volume that was handled by veteran Josh Jacobs. However, the Raiders chose not to secure Jacobs to a long-term contract after his big season, leading to a franchise tag that hasn’t been signed heading into 2023.
There hasn’t been any indication that Jacobs will be signing his franchise tag any time soon (although it is a near certainty that Jacobs won’t miss the whole season), which gives White additional value heading into the season. If Jacobs decides to continue his holdout through training camp, White will likely absorb most of his early-down and goal-line touches in the backfield. The longer Jacobs is out, the more likely it is that he will need time to get ready for the season. The Raiders could easily use this season to get an extended look at White in the backfield knowing that Jacobs may not resign with them this offseason.
White is currently available as the RB57 in fantasy drafts with a current ADP of 185.4. He’s also one of the biggest movers at the running back position, moving up 10.4 ADP spots over the last week. This seems far too low given the Raiders’ tendency to run the ball and the chance that White functions as one of the premier handcuffs (with red zone and goal line upside) in fantasy this season.
Richie James, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
All of the Chiefs wide receivers saw a bump in ADP over the last week, but the biggest leap was made by free agent acquisition Richie James. James has jumped 13.8 picks in ADP over the last week, mainly fueled by positive camp reports and the chance that Kadarius Toney will be limited to start the year after getting his knee cleaned up after just one day of training camp.
James is coming off a career season with the New York Giants in 2022 that saw him catch 57 of 70 targets for 569 yards and four touchdowns. Through four seasons, James has averaged 13.2 yards per reception and set a career-high catching 81.4% of his targets. According to FTN’s stats, James was second on the Giants in percentage of AirYards on the team in 2022 (16.15%).
Realistically, we have no idea who will emerge as the secondary weapon in Kansas City’s passing attack. At various points in the summer, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and Richie James have all garnered praise and had impressive moments. However, if you’re looking for an extremely cheap piece of the Chiefs’ passing attack to round out a lineup, you can certainly do worse than Richie James and his WR83 price tag.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Forget his diminutive size and recognize that few wide receivers came into the 2023 NFL Draft with the college production that Tank Dell earned during his career at Houston. Over the last two seasons, Dell caught 199 passes for 2,727 yards and 29 touchdowns while averaging 13.8 yards per reception. Dell landed in Houston after 2023 first-round pick C.J. Stroud told the front office that he wanted him on his team.
Yes, Dell is just 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, but he still blazed a 4.49 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and was an exceptional route runner. Additionally, the Houston passing attack is wide-open. Nico Collins will return as a starter and the team added a capable veteran in Robert Woods. Additionally, the team will hope that second-year receiver John Metchie can flash after losing his first season while recovering from cancer.
Dell is explosive and could settle into a defined role as the team’s deep threat. If any of the other receivers miss time, that should equal a greater role for him as well. In best ball, he’s an excellent last-round dart throw as the WR98 who could pay off with boom weeks throughout the season.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys chose to let Dalton Schultz leave in free agency, opening up a potentially big role for second-year tight end Jake Ferguson. There was initial uncertainty after Dallas selected Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker during the second round of the 2023 NFL draft, but the rookie has missed all of the summer due to an injury, giving Ferguson the ability to separate himself from the pack.
During his rookie season, Ferguson caught 19 of 22 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns while competing for touches with Schultz and fellow rookie Peyton Hendershot. Dak Prescott has never had an issue working targets through his tight end during his tenure with the Cowboys and should now have Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup opening up routes underneath.
Fantasy managers who fade tight ends early in the draft and shoot for touchdown upside should love Ferguson’s potential as the TE28 in early fantasy drafts.
