Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underdog Fantasy has launched the largest best ball tournament in history, featuring 451,200 entries and $10 million in total prizes. 30% of the prize pool will be split among three entries, including $2 million to first, $1 million to second, and $1 million to the highest-scoring team in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). Drafts consist of 12-person lobbies with 18 rounds.
That means you need to nail your picks. In a large-field tournament, digging deeper into the player pool provides massive leverage against the competition. Players with an ADP beyond 205 are being drafted on less than 40% of teams and can help differentiate rosters in the playoff weeks. In this article, I’m going to highlight some of my favorite late-round fliers with an ADP above 205. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
(205.6, RB63)
The Saints made a midseason trade with the Texans in 2021, bringing Mark Ingram back to The Big Easy. Ingram was drafted by the Saints in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played eight seasons before signing with the Ravens in 2019. Ingram has had a prolific career with three 1,000-yard rushing seasons under his belt and three Pro Bowls. He is the only Saints running back to rush for over 50 touchdowns and is 89 yards short from passing Deuce McAllister as the franchise’s all-time leading rusher. They had no problem featuring Ingram right away last season, giving him just shy of 100 opportunities (94) for almost 400 scrimmage yards (398) and a touchdown. Although he will be the RB2 behind Alvin Kamara in 2022, the “Boom and Zoom” duo are the only running back tandem that has recorded more than 1,500 scrimmage yards in the same season. Ingram has a nice combination of standalone value and, if Kamara were to miss time, RB1 upside. In his two games as the starter with the Saints last season, he finished as the RB10 and RB13. Kamara’s potential risk of suspension has seemingly been pushed beyond 2022 — though that’s not guaranteed, and there’s also a risk of something else coming out and him potentially landing on the commissioner exempt list.
Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Indianapolis Colts
(205.8, TE29)
The Colts re-signed Mo Alie-Cox to a three-year deal this offseason following Jack Doyle‘s retirement. The 6-foot-5, 267-pound tight end gets his first shot as the team’s starter after spending the last four seasons as a backup. Alie-Cox played fewer than 70% of offensive snaps in 15 out of 17 games last season but still managed a TE2 finish (TE24). He caught 24 passes for 316 yards while posting a career-high in receiving touchdowns (4). His large frame and increased snap share make him a constant threat to find the end zone, which is all you’re looking for in a late-round, boom/bust tight end. He also receives a significant upgrade at quarterback, transitioning from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. Ryan has sustained a top-10 TE in each of the past four seasons, and Alie-Cox may join the list in 2022.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: 206.0, QB29)
After trading away franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, the Falcons signed former 2015 second overall pick Marcus Mariota to a two-year contract. Mariota gets his first chance at a starting gig since being benched for Ryan Tannehill in 2019. He is reunited with second-year head coach Arthur Smith, who was on the coaching staff during Mariota’s five-year stint with the Titans. Despite spending the last two seasons backing up Derek Carr in Las Vegas, Mariota flashed a QB1 ceiling the last time he saw meaningful snaps. He came in for an injured Carr in Week 15 of the 2020 season and finished as the QB8 on the week, throwing for 226 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 88 yards and another score. Although he’s struggled as a passer, Mariota’s rushing floor keeps him in the QB1 conversation whenever he sees the field. He is the last of the “Konami Code” quarterbacks but often goes undrafted due to the threat of losing the starting job. The Falcons drafted Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft, which has left drafters hesitant to pull the trigger on Mariota. There’s no telling if or when Ridder will play, but Mariota can help teams get off to a hot start as long as he holds on to the job. Although he’s struggled as a passer, Mariota has serviceable weapons in the passing game featuring three first-round talents in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson.
David Bell, WR, Cleveland Browns
(206.2, WR87)
After letting go of Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper, the Browns entered the 2022 offseason top six in vacated targets (233) and air yards (2,041). They traded for Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper and spent a Day 3 pick on David Bell in the 2022 NFL Draft. Bell fell in the draft after testing poorly at the combine, but few receivers were as productive as Bell in his three-year career at Purdue. Bell averaged eight receptions for 100-plus yards and was named first-team All-Big Ten Conference in his final two seasons. His biggest threat to land the WR2 role in Cleveland is 2020 sixth-round pick Donovan Peoples-Jones, who has yet to eclipse 600 receiving yards in a season. Although Bell will play the first 11 games with Jacoby Brissett under center, his fantasy value should skyrocket once Deshaun Watson returns in Week 13.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
(209.8 QB30)
The Ben Roethlisberger era is over in Pittsburgh after the two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback announced his retirement this offseason. The Steelers signed Mitch Trubisky in free agency before drafting hometown quarterback Kenny Pickett with the 20th overall pick. Pickett was the only rookie quarterback to be drafted in the first two rounds and has the best chance to see the field sooner rather than later. The Steelers have yet to announce a starter, meaning Pickett could start as early as Week 1. Over the last 15 years, 40 out of 49 quarterbacks with first-round pedigree have played in at least five games as a rookie, often overtaking the starting job by the end of the season. Teams that can make it to the playoffs with Pickett will have a unique leverage opportunity rostering a quarterback who is undrafted in most leagues. Last season, three rookie quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Davis Mills and Trey Lance) posted a top-10 finish in the playoffs despite none finishing higher than QB18 on the season. Pickett has a strong supporting cast in Pittsburgh featuring two prowlers (Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson) and three second-round pass catchers (Pat Freiermuth, Chase Claypool, George Pickens). He should have no problem getting his weapons the ball after setting all-time school records in passing yards (12,303), passing completions (1,045), and passing touchdowns (81). Pickett threw for over 300-yard passing yards in 16 games and over 400 in five, the most in Pitt history. He also has sneaky rushing upside, rushing 416 times for 809 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns throughout his collegiate career.
