Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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That means you need to nail your picks. In this article, I am going to highlight some of my favorite mid-round wide receivers with league-winning upside. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
(ADP: 51.8, WR25)
Starting with his second season in the league in 2015, Brandin Cooks has finished inside the top 20 among wide receivers in six out of seven seasons. He has also eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards six times while playing for four different teams. Last season, Cooks finished as the WR20, catching a career-high 90 passes for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns. He was one of just 12 receivers to see more than 130 targets (134), ranking top-10 in target share (27%) and air yard share. Cooks was even more dominant with Davis Mills under center, averaging nine targets per game compared to seven with Tyrod Taylor. The Texans have committed to Mills as the starter entering the 2022 season and have done little to threaten Cooks’ target competition. Although they added John Metchie in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, he is set to miss the season after being diagnosed with leukemia.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
(60.3, WR30)
The Lions walked away with one of the biggest steals on draft day in 2021, selecting Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round. Last season, St. Brown led the team in targets (119), receptions (90), receiving yards (912) and receiving touchdowns (5). He also played a role in the run game, carrying the ball seven times for 61 yards and a rushing score. St. Brown became the first rookie wide receiver drafted outside the first three rounds to finish as a WR2 (WR21) since 2016. After failing to surpass 70 receiving yards or score a single touchdown in the first 12 weeks, St. Brown was the WR2 behind only Cooper Kupp in the final six games. In Weeks 13-18, Brown averaged 11.17 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93.33 receiving yards and a 33% target share, with most of his production coincided with D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson missing time. The Lions added to their receiving room during the offseason and selected Jameson Williams in the first round of this year’s draft, 12th overall. However, Williams had a late-season ACL tear in January and has already begun training camp on the PUP list. He will likely miss the first chunk of the 2022 season, leaving St. Brown as the undisputed WR1 in Detroit.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
(74.1, WR36)
Brandon Aiyuk had high expectations last season after a promising rookie campaign. Unfortunately, he injured his hamstring late in the preseason and found himself in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse to open the year. He struggled to find playing time, seeing the field on only 66.6% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps through the first seven weeks. During that stretch, he averaged just 1.5 receptions on 2.67 targets and 16 receiving yards. From Week 8 on, however, Aiyuk became much more involved, and his offensive snap rate increased to 92.3%. In Weeks 8-18, Aiyuk was top-10 in receiving yards (730), averaging more than 6 targets, 4 receptions and 67 receiving yards. He was also a top-15 receiver (WR14) to close the season. Aiyuk has received raving reports throughout training camp and has spent the offseason developing timing and chemistry with his new quarterback. Shanahan has praised Aiyuk’s work ethic and expects big things from the former first-round receiver entering year three.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
(100.0, WR48)
Tyler Lockett is viewed as a boom/bust player but has actually been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league. Since taking over the starting job in 2018, he’s finished as the WR15 or better in four consecutive seasons. He was the WR13 in 2021, finishing top-10 in receiving yards (1,175) and second in receiving yards on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield. Lockett became one of just three wide receivers to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last three years. However, he’ll have a new challenge in 2022, entering his first full season without Russell Wilson. During his seven-year career, Lockett has only played three games without Wilson, and all of them came with Geno Smith under center. Last season, he averaged more targets (7.67) and receptions (5.33) when Smith got the start. After combing for four receptions and 47 yards in his first two games without Wilson, Lockett popped off for a massive day catching 12 passes on 13 targets for 142 yards. He was the WR1 the last time he played with Smith, who is currently leading the quarterback competition in Seattle.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
(135.0, WR57)
George Pickens has dominated headlines during training camp and did not disappoint in his first preseason game. With Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool sidelined, Pickens played 100% of the first 16 snaps and confirmed all priors with a spectacular 26-yard touchdown catch in the back of the endzone. Pickens was widely viewed as a first-round talent that fell in the 2022 NFL draft due to injuries and off-field issues. The Steelers have a long track record of developing wide receivers, and it seems they may have stolen one in Pickens. The drumbeat behind Pickens has been consistent all offseason, and where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Despite question marks surrounding the offense, Pickens is a bet on talent, no matter who is under center in 2022. He is already listed as a starter on the Steelers depth chart and may have already passed Claypool as the WR2.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
(140.0, WR65)
Jahan Dotson has been flying under the radar and is the cheapest first-round rookie wide receiver in the 2022 draft class. He did not land in an ideal situation but has been generating buzz through the offseason. Dotson has already passed Curtis Samuel on the depth chart and is locked into two-receiver sets. He was quiet in his first preseason outing but played on all 22 first-team snaps. Dotson has been no stranger to poor quarterback play, catching 91 passes for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final season at Penn State. He dominated targets as a senior, carving out a 30% target in the Nittany Lions offense. Although he will be competing with Terry McLaurin for targets, there are more than enough mouths to feed in the Commanders’ offense. A rookie first-round receiver has finished top six at the position in back-to-back seasons, and Dotson is the cheapest investment to do so.
