NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Cleveland Browns dealt with a ton of injuries over the course of the 2021 season, and entering the 2022 campaign, there are some interesting changes.
The coaching staff is still basically the same, with Kevin Stefanski, Alex Van Pelt and Joe Woods all back for their third season together.
Cleveland Browns Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
Browns HC since 2020, Vikings OC in 2019
Stefanski has been in Cleveland for two seasons, and the results have been mostly positive. The Browns finally broke their long playoff drought back in 2020, and while last year’s 8-9 record was certainly underwhelming, it is worth noting that this team dealt with an insane amount of injuries over the course of the season. Through his first two seasons as the head coach of the Browns, Stefanski also operated as the team’s primary play-caller, something that won’t change entering the 2022 campaign. He already announced that he will continue to call plays, so let’s take a look at what we’ve seen from his play-calling tendencies during his first two seasons in Cleveland.
We know that the strength of this Browns offense has been the running game, especially behind one of the truly elite offensive lines in the NFL. During Stefanski’s first two seasons in Cleveland, the Browns have ranked fifth in the league in neutral-script rush rate at 47.1%. And during that same two-year span, Cleveland has run the football a healthy 36% of the time when trailing by eight or more points, which is the fourth-highest rate in football. The Browns clearly don’t abandon the run easily in games. Stefanski has used a wide-zone running scheme both during his time as the offensive coordinator with the Vikings and as the head coach in Cleveland. This past season, 78 of Nick Chubb’s 228 rushing attempts came on outside zone (34%), while only Joe Mixon recorded more outside runs than Chubb last year. Chubb also averaged 6.4 yards per carry on such runs. With how loaded this Cleveland offensive line is, it isn’t surprising to see Chubb succeed as much as he has. Last season, Joel Bitonio was the second-best zone-blocking offensive lineman in football, according to PFF, while Wyatt Teller ranked 12th. The Browns primarily run their offense under center, as they have posted shotgun rates of 42% and 37% over the last two years, well below the league average rate of 52% during that span. However, that could change in 2022, especially with a new quarterback under center in Deshaun Watson. Cleveland is still going to be a run-centric offense, but I think we see more running out of the shotgun and pistol this season. Back in 2020, 483 of Watson’s 544 pass attempts came out of the shotgun formation. Also look for a healthy uptick in RPO usage this season, as Baker Mayfield ran just seven plays out of RPO back in 2020. He also ran just 11 plays out of the formation last year. If the Browns are looking to construct this offense around Watson, we should expect to see more formations out of both the shotgun and pistol.
Play-action passing has also been a staple of Stefanski’s offenses over the years, especially in Minnesota. His offenses have used the running game to set up play-action passes, which is exactly what we saw from Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins with the Vikings. In 2019 under Stefanski, Cousins posted a healthy 31.4% play-action dropback rate, the sixth-highest rate among qualified signal-callers. His 142 attempts off play-action were good for 11th most in football that year, too. And in 2020 (Stefanski’s first year in Cleveland), quarterback Baker Mayfield ranked ninth in play-action dropback rate (30.1%, while 145 of his 486 attempts came off play-action). The Browns posted an overall play-action rate of over 43% that season, but that number fell to just 30% this past season. It was odd to see the Browns not only cut their play-action rate, but also not get Mayfield outside of the pocket as often, which was a big strength. Back in 2020, Mayfield recorded the sixth-most dropbacks where he ended up outside of the pocket (123), while his 106 pass attempts from outside of the pocket were the fourth most in the NFL. Both numbers dropped in 2021, as Mayfield ranked outside of the top 15 in both statistics. It’ll be very interesting to see if the Browns get back to play-action and bootleg passes with a new quarterback under center in 2022.
While I don’t think the overall identity of the Browns offense changes this season, Stefanski already alluded to the fact that there will be some pivots in 2022, mainly due to the different personnel. This past season, Cleveland’s points per drive dropped from 2.45 in 2021 to 1.93, below the league average of 2.11. Mayfield played through multiple injuries over the course of the year, which definitely held this offense back a bit.
Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt
Browns OC since 2020, Bengals QB coach 2018-2019, Bills OC 2009
Van Pelt came to Cleveland alongside Stefanski in 2020, and although he isn’t expected to call plays, he remains a key part of this offense. We saw him call plays during the 2022 AFC Wild Card game against the Steelers when Stefanski was out due to COVID-19 reasons. He also has play-calling experience from his time as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator back in 2009. The overall results in Buffalo weren’t that great, and while the quarterback play of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards was less than ideal, that Bills offense did have some talent with Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. As you’d expect, Van Pelt relied on the run that year, as Buffalo posted the eighth-highest rushing play percentage in the NFL at 46.5%. If Van Pelt were to call plays at any point this upcoming season, I highly doubt the offensive scheme would change very much, if at all.
Personnel
All of the tight ends.
During Stefanski’s tenure in Cleveland, the tight end position has been heavily involved. In 2020, the Browns signed Austin Hooper in free agency and drafted Harrison Bryant. With David Njoku already on the roster, we saw the Browns start to use a ton of 13 personnel. In fact, no team ran more three-tight-end sets than Cleveland during that season (14%), a number that climbed to 17% this past season, which also easily led the NFL. Entering the 2022 campaign, Hooper is gone, but the Browns still have Njoku and Bryant, which means Cleveland will likely deploy more two-tight-end sets, making 12 personnel one of their base formations. Over the last two seasons, the Browns have gone 12 personnel 26% and 22% of the time, above the league average during that stretch.
Target Distribution
Because the Browns have multiple tight ends on the field so often, it isn’t a surprise to see the position see a healthy amount of targets. During Stefanski’s first two seasons in Cleveland, tight ends have accounted for 27.3% and 28% of the team’s targets, above the league average rates of 25.4% and 25.6%. While Hooper is gone, it still wouldn’t surprise me to see this rate hover around the same range in 2022, especially since Cleveland’s wide receivers lack a ton of experience after Amari Cooper.
Fantasy Football Takeaways
The quarterback situation remains very much unclear. Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson during the offseason, but it is very possible he is suspended for half of the season. Watson has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in each of his last three seasons before sitting out the entire 2021 campaign. When we last saw him in 2020, he led the NFL in passing yards (4,823), while tossing 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. The Browns pass-catchers aren’t exactly amazing, but Watson will be behind the best offensive line of his career. If Watson is suspended, Cleveland will turn to Jacoby Brissett to start at quarterback after the trade of Baker Mayfield.
Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, Chubb has ranked second, seventh and second in rushing yards, and in the year he finished seventh, Chubb missed four games. During that same stretch, Chubb has ranked first, second and third in yards after contact per attempt, while often breaking off long runs. This past season, 18% of his carries went for 10-plus yards, the highest rate in the league among qualified running backs, while his 17% rate of 10-plus yard runs in 2020 was second-best in football. He’s simply been one of the most efficient running backs throughout his career, though his lack of work in the passing game has capped his upside, as Chubb has finished as RB13, RB11 and RB8 over the last three seasons. The addition of Kareem Hunt has really hurt Chubb’s potential upside as a pass-catcher, averaging less than two targets in games alongside Hunt over the last two years. Chubb finished 40th among running backs in routes run last year, and while the offense could be improved this season, Chubb projects as a solid RB2 but not an RB1.
Kareem Hunt was fantastic to start the 2021 campaign. Through the first six weeks of the season, Hunt was RB9 in fantasy, averaging 17.4 points, 15.5 touches, four targets and 3.8 receptions per game. However, he suffered an injury and didn’t play again until Week 12, only to miss four of his next five games. Hunt is a player who provides flex appeal regardless of the status of Chubb, and he’s averaged just over 14 PPR points per game in 20 contests with Chubb in the lineup over the last two seasons. If Chubb misses any time, Hunt will flirt with RB1 status, but the Browns are also very high on D’Ernest Johnson, who the team re-signed this offseason. Johnson was insanely efficient last season, averaging 5.6 yards per touch, while 16% of his carries went for 10-plus yards, second to only Chubb in all of football. After the Browns drafted Jerome Ford, it is entirely possible that Hunt is a trade candidate either before or during the season, which could push Johnson into his role, which is quite friendly for fantasy.
After three seasons in Dallas, Amari Cooper was traded to Cleveland this offseason, where he will undoubtedly operate as the top receiver. Cooper is coming off just 6.9 targets per game in 2021, the lowest mark of his career, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t cruise past that number in 2022. He has had some boom-or-bust tendencies over his career, but Cooper is still an elite route-runner who has incredible talent, while 130-140 targets is well within the range of outcomes. We’ll have to keep an eye on the quarterback situation in Cleveland, but if he’s playing alongside Watson, Cooper should be considered a solid WR2 in fantasy.
After Cooper, the Browns will be relying on both Donovan Peoples-Jones and rookie David Bell, especially after Jarvis Landry signed with the Saints. Peoples-Jones has been a downfield target to start his career, sporting an aDOT of 17.6 last season, while averaging over 18 yards per reception throughout his career. Bell, meanwhile, lacks elite explosion but is a good route-runner with good size (6’1”, 201 pounds). Bell likely sees more of the short/intermediate targets when on the field, while Peoples-Jones will continue to see deep targets. Both wideouts should be on your radar in the later rounds.
While he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, David Njoku is the clear starting tight end in Cleveland after the departure of Austin Hooper. The Browns gave him a four-year, $56 million extension, and there is some serious post-hype sleeper appeal here. With Hooper gone, the Browns aren’t going to use as many three-tight end sets, which could lead to more playing time out of the slot for Njoku, who operated out of the slot just over 31% of the time last season. It is entirely possible that Njoku is the second option in this passing game behind Amari Cooper, and new quarterback Deshaun Watson could be looking his way quite a bit, especially in the red zone. During his final three seasons with the Texans, tight ends accounted for nearly 24% of the passing touchdowns from Watson.
Defensive Coordinator: Joe Woods
Browns DC since 2020, Broncos DC 2017-2018
Woods and Stefanski were in Minnesota together from 2006 to 2013, and over the course of his career, Woods has helped develop some tremendous defensive backs. Antoine Winfield was a three-time Pro Bowler, while Xavier Rhodes impressed as a rookie in 2013. Woods has been a defensive backs coach for Oakland, Denver, Minnesota and San Francisco, and in two seasons as Cleveland’s defensive coordinator, we have seen Denzel Ward emerge into one of the best defensive backs in all of football. This past season, the Browns ran zone defense 72.7% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, with Cleveland using just two linebackers on the field more often than not.
