Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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That means you need to nail your picks. Although most of the money is won up top, the first step to advancing to the playoffs (Weeks 15-17) is to make it through the regular season. After the first 14 weeks, the two highest scorers in each lobby will move on to the next round. In a cumulative scoring format, every week is equally important. In this article, I am going to highlight a few players who should provide early production and get you off to a hot start. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
(ADP: 40.9, WR19)
Three years ago, Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown were the first quarterback and wide receiver drafted in the 2019 NFL Draft. The two also played together at the University of Oklahoma. The Cardinals leaned into the “shower narrative” this offseason and reunited the Sooners. They traded their first-round pick this year to the Ravens in exchange for Brown and a third. A few days later, we heard news that All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins would be suspended for the first six games of the season for reportedly violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
With the departure of Christian Kirk this offseason, Brown immediately steps in as the WR1 in Arizona to start the season. The last time Brown played with Murray, he commanded a 27% target share, catching 75 passes for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. He had his best season as a professional in 2021, setting career highs in targets (146), receptions (91) and yards (1,008). Brown became the first Ravens receiver to eclipse 1,000 yards since Mike Wallace in 2016. And he did that despite Lamar Jackson only playing 11 full games. Before Jackson missed Week 11, Brown was the WR8 for the first 10 weeks of the season. He is now being drafted as the WR19, which is where Hopkins ranked in points per game among all receivers that played more than one game. Brown already has a rapport with Murray and should benefit from better quarterback play in 2022. Last season just 37% of Brown’s deep targets (20 or more air yards) were deemed catchable, while Murray ranked first in completions (49%) and on-target throw rate on deep balls (66.7%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
(60.0, WR30)
The Lions ended up with one of the biggest steals on draft day a year ago when they selected Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round. Last season, St. Brown led the team in targets (119), receptions (90), receiving yards (912) and receiving touchdowns (5). He also played a role in the run game, carrying the ball seven times for 61 yards and a rushing score. St. Brown became the first rookie wide receiver drafted outside the first three rounds to finish as a WR2 (WR21) since 2016. After failing to surpass 70 receiving yards or score a single touchdown in the first 12 weeks, St. Brown was the WR2 behind only Cooper Kupp in the final six games. In Weeks 13-18, Brown averaged 11.17 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93.33 receiving yards, and a 33% target share, with most of his production coincided with D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson missing time.
St. Brown will open the 2022 season as the No. 1 receiver in Detroit. During the offseason, the Lions added to their receiving room by drafting Jameson Williams in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft (No. 12). Williams has begun training camp on the PUP list and will likely miss the first chunk of the season, maybe half the year. No other receiver threatens to surpass St. Brown on the pecking order.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
(71.0, TE6)
Dalton Schultz has quietly been one of the most productive tight ends in the league since taking over the starting job from Blake Jarwin in 2020. He finished as the TE3 last season, catching 78 passes on 104 targets for 808 yards and 8 touchdowns. He joined Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews as the only tight ends with 75 or more receptions on the season. After trading Amari Cooper to the Browns and releasing Jarwin, the Cowboys brought back Schultz on the franchise tag. Although they re-signed Michael Gallup, he is trending toward missing the early part of the season. Schultz has the opportunity to emerge as the No. 2 option for Dak Prescott and could once again see 100-plus targets.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
(90.2, TE7)
T.J. Hockenson has had high expectations since being selected by the Lions with the eighth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He came out of the gate hot, catching six passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in his first game as a pro. Hockenson failed to build off his Week 1 outing, catching just 26 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown the rest of his rookie season. He broke out in his second season with 67 receptions for 723 yards and six touchdowns. With the departure of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones last offseason, Hockenson was set up for a career year in 2021. He was Jared Goff‘s No. 1 option for the first 13 weeks leading the team in targets (84), receptions (61), receiving yards (583) and receiving touchdowns (4). He was also a top-three tight end, trailing only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Unfortunately, his season was cut short after a hand injury forced him to miss the final five games. Hockenson has a chance to pick up where he left off as a top-two option for Goff while Jameson Williams recovers.
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
(108.5, TE10)
The Cardinals traded for three-time Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz midseason last year. After six games with Philly (18/189/2), Ertz suited up for the time as a Cardinal in Week 7 against the Houston Texans. He caught three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in his debut, finishing as the TE5 on the week. His best game of the season came in Week 11 with Kyler Murray out of the lineup. With Colt McCoy under center, Ertz caught eight passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the TE1 overall on the week. After the trade, he led the team in receiving touchdowns (3) and finished second in receptions (56) and receiving yards (574) yards. He tied DeAndre Hopkins for a team-high 14 red-zone targets despite only playing 11 games.
With Hopkins sidelined for the first six weeks, Ertz should have plenty of scoring opportunities as the go-to option in the red zone. In the seven games Ertz played without Hopkins last season, he averaged nine targets, 6.14 receptions, and 59.14 receiving yards. His 10.7 half-PPR points per game would have ranked as the TE4. The Cardinals re-signed Ertz to a three-year, $31.65 million contract, solidifying his role in the offense. Although they drafted tight end Trey McBride, in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Ertz is the starter and will look to build upon his second-half surge after an entire offseason in Arizona.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
(114.8, WR53)
Rondale Moore generated a lot of buzz last offseason after being selected by the Cardinals in the second round. At 5-foot-7 and 181 pounds, Moore was a human highlight reel, benching over 400 pounds and squatting over 600. He finished top three among all receivers in the 2021 draft class in the 40-yard dash (4.33 seconds), vertical jump (42.5 inches) and three-cone drill (6.68 seconds). Since 2011, Moore has the third-highest athleticism score among all wideouts under 5-foot-9. His game-breaking ability was on full display at the start of his rookie season. Moore hit the ground running, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown in his first two games.
Moore was unable to capitalize on his hot start, failing to eclipse 60 receiving yards or score another touchdown for the rest of the season. He was held under 60 receptions (54) and 500 receiving yards (435) while finishing dead last in average depth of target (1.3). Moore was used on special teams and as a part-time gadget player, logging less than 50% of offensive snaps. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has acknowledged Moore’s development as a receiver and envisions a more significant role for the second-year wideout next season. He even hinted at Moore taking over for Christian Kirk as the starting slot receiver. All signs point toward Moore carving out a full-time role and favorite to operate as the WR2 in the first six games without Hopkins.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
(115.5, WR54)
After trading away Amari Cooper, the Cowboys also lost their No. 4 wide receiver, Cedrick Wilson, to free agency after he posted career highs in receptions (45), yards (602) and receiving touchdowns (6) in 2021. As a result, the Cowboys turned to the NFL draft to help bolster their receiving corps, grabbing Jalen Tolbert out of South Alabama in the third round. Tolbert was named the 2021 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year after a stellar senior year. In his fifth season as a Jaguar, Tolbert caught a career-high 82 passes for 1,474 yards and eight touchdowns.
Although he was a Day 2 selection, Tolbert has an immediate path to opportunity on a Cowboys team that is top-10 in vacated air yards and targets. Since Mike McCarthy took over as head coach in 2020, the Cowboys have been one of the most pass-heavy teams, ranking top five in pass attempts in each of the past two seasons. They have also had two top-24 wide receivers in back-to-back seasons. Tolbert is the favorite to start in three wide receiver sets but will have an even bigger role without Michael Gallup in the lineup. Gallup tore his ACL in Week 17 last season and is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list. While Gallup is out, Tolbert will operate as the WR2 alongside CeeDee Lamb.
DJ Chark, WR, Detroit Lions
(146.8, WR66)
DJ Chark burst onto the scene in his second season in 2019, catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. His career has been on a downward trajectory ever since, and he’s struggled to stay on the field. Chark appeared in just four games last season before an ankle injury put an early end to his season. During the offseason, Chark signed a one-year, $10 million “prove it” deal with Detroit. Reports out of training camp indicate Chark has made a full recovery and is moving well during drills. He’s already making highlight plays, transitioning well into the new offense. While Jameson Williams is sidelined, Chark will immediately slot in as the WR2 and serve as the deep threat in Detroit. His average of 13.9 yards per catch should help a Lions team that completed only 16 passes that traveled 20 or more air yards last season. Without a field stretcher, Jared Goff‘s 6.35-yard average depth of target ranked dead last among all quarterbacks in 2021.
