Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2021 NFL franchise tag deadline has past, and we saw plenty of action in the final hours with nine players receiving the franchise tag. Teams can use a tag to tender a player on a one-year deal that equals the average salary of top five players at the position over the last five years compared to the salary cap. No transition tags were used this year, but that option is equal to the average of the top 10 salaries at the position and comes with fewer measures to prevent a player from signing with another team.
So let’s take a look at all the players who were and weren’t tagged and whether the player is a winner or loser based on their status.
Who Was Tagged?
Allen Robinson, WR Chicago Bears
Chicago placed the franchise tag on Robinson, which will cost them $18 million if he decides to play under the tag. Of course, we do have some moving pieces here. Robinson and the Bears could agree to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline to sign the tag. If not, there’s a chance Robinson signs his tender and is traded. That would likely be the best course of action for Robison’s fantasy outlook. At this point in his career, he’s yet to play with a good quarterback. That isn’t likely to change given the current state of affairs in Chicago. There’s still hope here, but the future doesn’t look particularly bright.
Verdict: Loser. Unless this is a tag-and-trade situation, we’re going to continue to wonder what Robinson would be capable of with a good quarterback.
Chris Godwin, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Super Bowl champs are doing their darndest to keep the band together for another run at the championship. They not only tagged Godwin but also re-signed LB Lavonte David. For Godwin, this deal makes sense. He’ll make just over $16 million on the tag, which is significantly more than he’s made over the course of his four-year career. He’s also just 25 years old and could be looking at a big payday next year should he play under the tag. For the Bucs, this also makes sense. Godwin appeared to be on the verge of stardom following the 2019 season, but injuries hampered him for a good chunk of 2020. A year on the tag would give the organization more time to evaluate while also keeping one of Tom Brady’s key weapons in the building.
Verdict: Winner. Godwin is going to get paid and will continue to play with Brady.
Cam Robinson, OT Jacksonville Jaguars
In a bit of a surprise move, the Jags tagged Robinson. He’s far from an elite option, but Robinson does have age on his side. This move also means Jacksonville won’t have to go out and find a left tackle in the draft or free agency.
Verdict: Winner. Trevor Lawrence is also a winner here.
Leonard Williams, DT New York Giants
This is the second tag in a row for Williams, who is coming off a massive 2020 campaign where he posted 11.5 sacks for the Giants. It’s likely this is just a placeholder deal, as the Giants are expected to lock Williams up for the long term. However, if that doesn’t happen, Williams will likely end up being underpaid thanks in part to his position designation as a defensive tackle.
Verdict: Loser. Williams would have likely made out better financially if he hit the open market.
Brandon Scherff, G Washington Football Team
Like Williams, Scherff was drafted in 2015 and was tagged for the second-straight year. Scherff is one of the most well-rounded interior offensive linemen in the league. His presence will continue to help Antonio Gibson and the Washington run game along with whoever they have under center.
Verdict: Scherff is a winner, but Washington could end up being a loser along the offensive line with some much money invested in an interior player.
Marcus Williams, S New Orleans Saints
Despite being nearly $50 million over the cap as of this writing, the Saints decided to tag Williams. To be fair, safety tags are among the cheapest at just over $11 million. But one has to wonder how New Orleans is going to get under the cap before the league new year next Wednesday.
Verdict: Williams is a winner, but the Saints are looking like losers thanks to their horrendous cap situation.
Marcus Maye, S New York Jets
With essentially just three good players out of their 22 starters from last season, the Jets did the wise thing and retained one of those three with a franchise tag. Maye is coming off a 2020 season where he posted 11 pass breakups and had two picks. Unlike the Saints, New York has plenty of cap space, so this decision makes ample sense for the new regime under Robert Saleh.
Verdict: Winner. Maye remains one of the key players on a new look Jets defense.
Justin Simmons, S Denver Broncos
Three safeties were tagged this year with Simmons getting the designation for the second-straight year. Despite the 20% increase, Simmons will still cost the Broncos just $13.7 million. That’s still a million below Buddah Baker’s position-leading $14.75 million.
Verdict: Winner. It was a great year for safeties to get paid.
Taylor Moton, OT Carolina Panthers
Perhaps one of the least surprising tags on this list, Moton has barely reached the prime of his career and is among the league’s top offensive tackles. Locking him up will help secure the Panthers’ offensive line, which is especially important if they make a run at a big-name quarterback in the draft or via a trade.
Verdict: Winner. While Moton would have gotten paid on the open market, he still has plenty of time for a future big deal.
Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys
Technically speaking, Prescott was tagged, but that's essentially a procedural move. He's locked up with Dallas for the next four years, as Dallas backed up the Brinks truck and gave Prescott a record deal that will pay him an astounding $75 million in guaranteed money in 2021. It’s a staggering sum of money that will largely come in a $66 million signing bonus that the Cowboys will be able to spread across their salary cap for the next six years thanks to two voidable years tackled on to the end of Prescott’s four-year deal.
Verdict: Massive winner. Not only is Prescott getting “eff you” money, but he also remains in a high-powered offense that is chock full of weapons.
Who Wasn’t Tagged?
Kenny Golladay, WR Free Agent
Unlike the Bears and Bucs, Detroit opted to not tag its star wide receiver. Golladay is the clear top free agent on the market and is going to likely get a massive deal. While he’s coming off an injury-riddled season, Golladay has proved to be a game-changing receiver who can make the spectacular look routine.
Verdict: While it’s still too early to tell if Golladay wins in a new landing spot, he’s a winner from a salary standpoint. However, the Lions are losers with just Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephus atop their current wide receiver depth chart.
Aaron Jones, RB Free Agent
The Packers don’t use tags. It’s been over a decade since the last time Green Bay tagged a play, so it was a longshot for them to use the franchise or transitional tag on Jones. One of the most dynamic options at the position, Jones will likely be a hot commodity on the open market. However, we have seen a few cautionary tales of why teams may not want to invest in running backs in their mid-20s (*cough* Todd Gurley *cough*).
Verdict: Winner. Jones is going to get paid and will remain a starter elsewhere. A.J. Dillion also wins here, but one has to think that the Packers are taking a step back without Jones on the roster.
Chris Carson, RB Free Agent
Like Jones, Carson will hit the open market, though I don’t expect he’ll command the same attention. That being said, Carson has shown the capability to carry a big workload in his four years with Seattle. Unfortunately, he’s also had a propensity to get hurt over that span as well. He’s also entering his age-27 season, which is far from optimal.
Verdict: Loser. Carson isn’t as likely as Jones to land a big deal and could be teetering on the edge of the downslope of his career. However, Rashaad Penny looks to be a big winner here, as he’s now the favorite for lead duties in the extremely run-heavy Seahawks offense.
Hunter Henry, TE Free Agent
Los Angeles decided to not use the tag on Henry for a second-straight year and will allow the tight end to hit the open market. Henry has gone on record saying that he wants to get paid but is willing to forego top dollar for the opportunity to play with a good quarterback. If things work out that way, he’ll remain one of the top fantasy tight ends. As for the Chargers, they now have a glaring hole at tight end that could be filled by a cheaper option like Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett, who are both set to become free agents next week. Either player would be very interesting if paired up with Justin Herbert.
Verdict: While he’s going to get paid, Henry may end up a loser if he doesn’t end up playing with a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber.
